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Predictions / Underworld vs MEIA NOITE · match preview
Underworld vs MEIA NOITE: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3
UNDMEI
Underworld
World #– · 0-1
VS
2026-09-18 21:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
MEIA NOITE
World #– · 4-9
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
47%53%
33%
2.771.36Market · 6 books
67%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean MEIA NOITE at 67%. Strength slightly favours Underworld, form clearly favours MEIA NOITE.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
UnderworldpullMEIA NOITE
Team strength1492
145259/41 UND
Track record0–1
4–951/49 UND
Recent formL
LWLLW78/22 MEI
Roster rating0.98
0.9955/45 UND
Bookmakers imply 33% for Underworld (2.77 / 1.36); we land 14 points higher at 47%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 50% our own signal (3 maps of Underworld, 31 of MEIA NOITE; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: MEIA NOITE to beat Underworld, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsUnderworld · avg 0.98 · star gap +0.24iStar gap: the best player rates 0.24 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| neskk★ | 1.02 | 92.7 | 68.3% | 50% | 1.22 |
| extazzy | 0.95 | 61 | 70.5% | 59% | 1.03 |
| Jhones Macarones | 1.05 | 61.7 | 70.5% | 36% | 0.96 |
| tgS | 0.86 | 69.8 | 65.8% | 57% | 0.95 |
| space | 0.67 | 62.2 | 65.8% | 64% | 0.72 |
MEIA NOITE · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nyezin★ | 1.11 | 86 | 70.8% | 49% | 1.15 |
| abr | 1.03 | 76 | 72% | 54% | 1.08 |
| Jerr1 | 0.9 | 64.7 | 70.1% | 47% | 0.98 |
| bsd | 0.98 | 67 | 70.7% | 34% | 0.96 |
| CutzMeretz | 0.71 | 66.2 | 66% | 43% | 0.79 |
Recent form
Underworld
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Underworld52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Underworld 2-1
If the veto goes
Underworld 52%how the series ends48% MEIA NOITE
26%2-024%
26%2-124%
Underworld52%1-0vsMEIA NOITE48%3-2
100%Win60%
67%CT42%
42%T47%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv80%
Underworld50%0-0thinMEIA NOITE50%3-6
–Win33%
–CT49%
–T43%
–Pistol50%
–Conv89%
Underworld52%0-1vsMEIA NOITE48%1-6
0%Win14%
58%CT46%
33%T39%
50%Pistol64%
100%Conv89%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
UnderworldDust2MEIA NOITE
67%CT side42%
42%T side47%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win80%
0%After loss0%
UnderworldMirageMEIA NOITE
–CT side49%
–T side43%
–Pistol50%
–After win89%
–After loss22%
UnderworldAncientMEIA NOITE
58%CT side46%
33%T side39%
50%Pistol64%
100%After win89%
0%After loss40%
Pistol rounds50% · 55% · MEIA NOITE win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 87% · Underworld keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 21% · MEIA NOITE fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Underworld vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapUNDMEI
NukeUND bann/a0g50%1-1
Underworld on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisMEI bann/a0gn/a0g
Underworld on Anubis
no recent maps
MEIA NOITE on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2UND pick100%1-060%3-2
Underworld on Dust2
Wyour end13–11todayMirageMEI pickn/a0g33%3-6
Underworld on Mirage
no recent maps
InfernoUND ban0%0-167%2-1
Underworld on Inferno
Lyour end7–13todayCacheMEI bann/a0g0%0-3
Underworld on Cache
no recent maps
Ancientdecider0%0-114%1-6
Each team's usual first ban: Underworld Anubis · MEIA NOITE Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Underworld
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/1 (100%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 1 maps they won, 1 (100%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 100% of their wins were comebacks, not 100% of all games.vs your endDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/2 (100%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 2 (100%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs your endAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs your endInfernoled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs your endDust2from 4 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs your endAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini3.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi67% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT67% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
MEIA NOITE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/10 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 3 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 downvs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 4 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/19 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 7 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs BORRACHEIROSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs ODDIKMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs GalorysNukeled 4 · lost 5-13vs ProcyonAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi41% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT41% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs BORRACHEIROSAncient13-16vs METANOIA WolvesMirage22-20vs METANOIA WolvesAncient12-16vs GrêmioDust216-14vs ex-MIBR AcademyMirage13-16