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Predictions / Bushido Wildcats vs mellren · match preview
Bushido Wildcats vs mellren: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier
Bushido Wildcats
World #76 · 47-44
VS
2026-09-22 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
mellren
World #130 · 13-7
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
46%54%
The call
mellren are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Bushido Wildcats. No odds yet. Firepower clearly favours mellren, head-to-head slightly favours mellren.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Bushido Wildcatspullmellren
Team strength1535
154251/49 MEL
Track record47–44
13–756/44 MEL
Recent formWLLLW
WLWLL56/44 MEL
Roster rating1.1
1.1383/17 MEL
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 MEL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 92% our own signal (223 maps of Bushido Wildcats, 47 of mellren). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: mellren leads 1–0.
Bottom line: mellren to beat Bushido Wildcats, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBushido Wildcats · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
mellren · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lollipop21k★ | 1.15 | 94.5 | 77.3% | 57% | 1.26 |
| shootic | 1.06 | 78.6 | 73.7% | 61% | 1.2 |
| mdl | 1.01 | 68.9 | 72.1% | 47% | 1.08 |
| menddel | 1.04 | 69.9 | 70% | 51% | 1.08 |
| Maksilvl | 0.94 | 68.2 | 74% | 56% | 1.04 |
Recent form
Bushido Wildcats
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit Academy#1092-00-2
Bushido Wildcats vs Spirit Academy
Sep 5WNuke13-4Dust213-7mellren vs Spirit Academy
Aug 1LAncient6-13Dust27-13
Honvéd#1295-22-0
Bushido Wildcats vs Honvéd
Aug 24WDust213-6Cache13-10Aug 21WDust213-5Cache13-4Aug 19LCache6-13Dust213-3Mirage10-13mellren vs Honvéd
Aug 16WInferno13-11Dust213-11
Noir Verse#1463-22-0
mellren vs Noir Verse
Aug 17WAnubis13-8Ancient13-3
Enjoy#1492-01-2
Bushido Wildcats vs Enjoy
Sep 14WDust213-10Mirage13-11mellren vs Enjoy
Sep 13LAncient11-13Inferno13-3Mirage9-13Map lab
mellren55%to win the Bo3 · most likely mellren 2-1
If the veto goes
Bushido Wildcats 45%how the series ends55% mellren
26%2-019%
19%2-136%
Bushido Wildcats69%39-17vsmellren31%4-4
70%Win50%
54%CT55%
58%T50%
55%Pistol25%
92%Conv100%
Bushido Wildcats38%27-20vsmellren62%10-4
57%Win71%
53%CT53%
50%T52%
47%Pistol46%
84%Conv69%
Bushido Wildcats34%12-14vsmellren66%3-0
46%Win100%
49%CT67%
52%T54%
62%Pistol33%
81%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Bushido WildcatsDust2mellren
54%CT side55%
58%T side50%
55%Pistol25%
92%After win100%
20%After loss25%
Bushido WildcatsMiragemellren
53%CT side53%
50%T side52%
47%Pistol46%
84%After win69%
6%After loss13%
Bushido WildcatsAnubismellren
49%CT side67%
52%T side54%
62%Pistol33%
81%After win100%
25%After loss75%
Pistol rounds53% · 38% · Bushido Wildcats win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 79% · Bushido Wildcats keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 26% · mellren fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Bushido Wildcats vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBUSMEL
AncientBUS ban0%0-150%4-4
Bushido Wildcats on Ancient
L
SPARTA6–132mo ago
CacheMEL ban53%8-7n/a0g
Bushido Wildcats on Cache
L
Azuolas4–131d agoL
Leo11–133d agoW
Misa13–115d agoW
megoshort13–115d agoLMisa2–136d agoW
benched gods13–88d agoW
Nordic Partners13–919d agoWHonvéd13–1025d agomellren on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2BUS pick70%39-1750%4-4
MirageMEL pick57%27-2071%10-4
InfernoBUS ban41%9-1370%7-3
NukeMEL ban38%16-260%0-4
Anubisdecider46%12-14100%3-0
Each team's usual first ban: Bushido Wildcats Ancient · mellren Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Bushido Wildcats
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/116 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 116 maps they won, 28 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 10 downvs SPARTAAnubisfrom 9 downvs MASONICAnubisfrom 6 downvs G2 AresDust2from 6 downvs Nordic PartnersCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i40/105 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 105 maps they lost, 40 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs AzuolasNukeled 7 · lost 6-13vs VP.ProdigyDust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs PhantomNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs Fire FluxNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAAncientled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs ALGONuke14-16vs BebopMirage15-19vs MASONICOverpass25-22vs LeoNuke16-19vs CSDIILITNuke19-16
mellren
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/28 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 28 maps they won, 12 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 downvs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs BERGMiragefrom 5 downvs LPHInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/19 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 6 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs DramaNukeled 6 · lost 8-13vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs PUREAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs EnjoyAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs HAVUNukeled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs DramaNukeled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs AMDust214-16vs TrickstersMirage19-16vs TrickstersAncient16-14vs Bushido WildcatsMirage16-12vs BERGMirage16-14