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Predictions / Spirit Academy vs Phantom Academy · match preview
Spirit Academy vs Phantom Academy: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier
Spirit Academy
World #109 · 14-9
VS
2026-09-24 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Phantom Academy
World #185 · 10-13
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
64%36%
The call
Spirit Academy are favoured: our model gives them 64% against Phantom Academy. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Spirit Academy, record slightly favours Spirit Academy, firepower clearly favours Spirit Academy.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Spirit AcademypullPhantom Academy
Team strength1542
150558/42 SPI
Track record14–9
10–1359/41 SPI
Recent formWLWWL
WLWLW52/48 SPI
Roster rating1.11
1.1187/13 SPI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 92% our own signal (51 maps of Spirit Academy, 54 of Phantom Academy).
Bottom line: Spirit Academy to beat Phantom Academy, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSpirit Academy · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Phantom Academy · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalyambys★ | 1.15 | 80.8 | 76.5% | 55% | 1.18 |
| manio | 1.2 | 76 | 73.4% | 64% | 1.16 |
| Brain47 | 1.12 | 75.2 | 68.7% | 36% | 1.12 |
| chedzik | 0.93 | 74.3 | 73.2% | 66% | 1.09 |
| Ayteel | 0.85 | 66.5 | 70.6% | 59% | 1.01 |
Recent form
Spirit Academy
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Noir Verse#1461-21-2
Spirit Academy vs Noir Verse
Sep 9LCache12-16Ancient13-10Dust213-16Phantom Academy vs Noir Verse
Sep 12LCache13-0Ancient10-13Anubis6-13
benched gods#1482-12-4
Spirit Academy vs benched gods
Sep 14WAncient7-13Cache13-9Mirage13-10Phantom Academy vs benched gods
Sep 11LCache6-13Mirage16-14Anubis7-13Cache6-13Aug 17LMirage16-13Cache10-13Ancient5-13Map lab
Spirit Academy50%to win the Bo3 · most likely Phantom Academy 2-1
If the veto goes
Spirit Academy 50%how the series ends50% Phantom Academy
28%2-011%
22%2-139%
Spirit Academy84%9-2vsPhantom Academy16%4-7
82%Win36%
63%CT49%
49%T47%
45%Pistol50%
90%Conv91%
Spirit Academy33%3-3vsPhantom Academy67%9-4
50%Win69%
51%CT63%
45%T47%
42%Pistol73%
100%Conv79%
Spirit Academy36%3-6vsPhantom Academy64%4-4
33%Win50%
45%CT60%
38%T46%
56%Pistol56%
90%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Spirit AcademyAncientPhantom Academy
63%CT side49%
49%T side47%
45%Pistol50%
90%After win91%
33%After loss18%
Spirit AcademyMiragePhantom Academy
51%CT side63%
45%T side47%
42%Pistol73%
100%After win79%
14%After loss0%
Spirit AcademyNukePhantom Academy
45%CT side60%
38%T side46%
56%Pistol56%
90%After win78%
25%After loss29%
Pistol rounds48% · 61% · Phantom Academy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol92% · 82% · Spirit Academy keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol26% · 16% · Spirit Academy fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Spirit Academy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSPIPHA
InfernoSPI bann/a0g0%0-1
Spirit Academy on Inferno
no recent maps
Phantom Academy on Inferno
L
G2 Ares4–134mo agoAnubisPHA ban100%3-040%2-3
Phantom Academy on Anubis
LNoir Verse6–136d agoLbenched gods7–137d agoW
Diamant13–113mo agoWImmuNe13–115mo agoL
TNT4–136mo agoAncientSPI pick82%9-236%4-7
MiragePHA pick50%3-369%9-4
Dust2SPI ban50%6-671%5-2
CachePHA ban56%5-433%3-6
Each team's usual first ban: Spirit Academy Inferno · Phantom Academy Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Spirit Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/30 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 30 maps they won, 15 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 downvs aimclubDust2from 7 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 6 downvs Saint SinnersNukefrom 5 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/21 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 8 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs Noir VerseCacheled 5 · lost 12-16vs Just PlayersDust2led 4 · lost 13-16vs PermittaNukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs Just PlayersNukeled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs BetclicNuke19-17vs Just PlayersDust213-16vs Young TigeRESDust225-22vs Nuclear TigeRESCache13-16vs ex-RUSTECDust213-16
Phantom Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/27 (48%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 27 maps they won, 13 (48%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 48% of their wins were comebacks, not 48% of all games.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 downvs benched godsMiragefrom 7 downvs ImmuNeDust2from 6 downvs DiamantMiragefrom 6 downvs benched godsMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/27 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 10 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MisaCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs TNCAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs benched godsCacheled 5 · lost 10-13vs benched godsCacheled 5 · lost 6-13vs UNiTYDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 13 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 down · won 13-0
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MisaCacheled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs TNCAncient12-16vs HonvédDust214-16vs benched godsMirage16-13vs ex-Zero TenacityNuke13-16vs benched godsMirage16-14