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Predictions / ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy · match preview
ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier
ex-Zero Tenacity
World #82 · 61-60
VS
2026-09-24 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
BIG Academy
World #– · 28-20
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
61%39%
The call
ex-Zero Tenacity are favoured: our model gives them 61% against BIG Academy. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, form slightly favours BIG Academy, firepower slightly favours BIG Academy, head-to-head slightly favours ex-Zero Tenacity.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-Zero TenacitypullBIG Academy
Team strength1622
158458/42 EX-
Track record61–60
28–2055/45 BIG
Recent formLLLWW
LLWWW61/39 BIG
Roster rating1.1
1.1166/34 BIG
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 EX-
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (294 maps of ex-Zero Tenacity, 113 of BIG Academy). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ex-Zero Tenacity leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ex-Zero Tenacity to beat BIG Academy, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsex-Zero Tenacity · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cjoffo★ | 1.1 | 70.6 | 72.7% | 63% | 1.15 |
| Kind0 | 1.05 | 78.4 | 72.4% | 49% | 1.13 |
| brutmonster | 1.13 | 74.4 | 70.6% | 37% | 1.13 |
| Dragon | 1.07 | 79.6 | 72.1% | 51% | 1.12 |
| emi | 0.83 | 67.2 | 69.4% | 50% | 0.98 |
BIG Academy · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ex-Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemesis#441-21-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nemesis
Mar 17LInferno13-9Nuke9-13Mirage8-13BIG Academy vs Nemesis
Jan 22LAncient0-13Nuke13-9Dust216-19
GenOne#563-25-4
BIG Academy vs GenOne
Jun 7LOverpass10-13Dust213-11Inferno9-13Jun 5WOverpass13-11Dust213-2Apr 28LAncient10-13Dust25-13+1 earlier meeting
Leo#1222-21-2
BIG Academy vs Leo
Apr 25LAncient13-7Nuke10-13Anubis12-16
Inner Circle Academy#1280-22-1
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 17LAnubis7-13Nuke8-13BIG Academy vs Inner Circle Academy
Jul 13WInferno13-4Dust214-16Ancient13-2
Vexar#1432-00-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Vexar
Aug 18Wseries2-0BIG Academy vs Vexar
Jul 19LAnubis8-13Ancient7-13BEBBebop#1651-20-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Bebop
Mar 28LMirage7-13Dust213-7Nuke4-13BIG Academy vs Bebop
Mar 21LDust214-16Mirage8-13
STATE#1675-32-1
ex-Zero Tenacity vs STATE
Aug 29WNuke13-9Inferno13-9Apr 3LInferno13-8Overpass11-13Mar 1WInferno13-11Overpass13-16Nuke13-7BIG Academy vs STATE
Mar 26WAncient13-5Inferno8-13Anubis13-7
Ursa2-40-2
BIG Academy vs Ursa
Mar 16LOverpass7-13Dust210-13Map lab
ex-Zero Tenacity54%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-Zero Tenacity 2-0
If the veto goes
ex-Zero Tenacity 54%how the series ends46% BIG Academy
29%2-020%
25%2-126%
ex-Zero Tenacity62%31-19vsBIG Academy38%4-4
62%Win50%
54%CT44%
54%T52%
60%Pistol56%
85%Conv78%
ex-Zero Tenacity47%34-31vsBIG Academy53%16-13
52%Win55%
52%CT52%
52%T55%
51%Pistol48%
79%Conv79%
ex-Zero Tenacity50%16-5vsBIG Academy50%2-0
76%Win100%
58%CT75%
60%T47%
55%Pistol50%
95%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ex-Zero TenacityInfernoBIG Academy
54%CT side44%
54%T side52%
60%Pistol56%
85%After win78%
30%After loss0%
ex-Zero TenacityDust2BIG Academy
52%CT side52%
52%T side55%
51%Pistol48%
79%After win79%
17%After loss13%
ex-Zero TenacityCacheBIG Academy
58%CT side75%
60%T side47%
55%Pistol50%
95%After win100%
16%After loss0%
Pistol rounds55% · 50% · ex-Zero Tenacity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 79% · ex-Zero Tenacity keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol21% · 10% · ex-Zero Tenacity fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-Zero Tenacity vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
BIG Academy habitually bans Inferno, ex-Zero Tenacity's strongest maps (Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 30/49), not an opponent read, so expect ex-Zero Tenacity to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapEX-BIG
AncientEX- bann/a0g69%20-9
ex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
NukeBIG ban54%32-2750%2-2
InfernoEX- pick62%31-1950%4-4
Dust2BIG pick52%34-3155%16-13
AnubisEX- ban48%12-1350%4-4
MirageBIG ban41%18-2644%8-10
Cachedecider76%16-5100%2-0
Each team's usual first ban: ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient · BIG Academy Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i43/149 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 149 maps they won, 43 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 downvs HEROIC AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs LavkedDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i44/139 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 139 maps they lost, 44 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs Subtop De FranceDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs benched godsDust2led 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16
BIG Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/65 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 25 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs GenOneOverpassfrom 9 downvs ALGOAnubisfrom 8 downvs Eternal FireDust2from 6 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 6 downvs KinoaDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/48 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 17 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs japczanyDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs NemesisDust2led 5 · lost 16-19vs FUTMirageled 4 · lost 8-13vs Truck DriversDust2led 4 · lost 14-16vs WaveAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GenOneOverpassfrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs japczanyDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs FUTOverpass16-14vs 9INENuke16-12vs 9INEDust224-28vs NemesisDust216-19vs Truck DriversDust214-16