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Predictions / Noir Verse vs Illyrians · match preview
Noir Verse vs Illyrians: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier
Noir Verse
World #146 · 18-22
VS
2026-09-24 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Illyrians
World #– · 1-2
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
56%44%
The call
Noir Verse are favoured: our model gives them 56% against Illyrians. No odds yet. Firepower clearly favours Noir Verse.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Noir VersepullIllyrians
Team strength1482
149252/48 ILL
Track record18–22
1–253/47 NOI
Recent formLWLLW
LWL54/46 NOI
Roster rating1.08
1.0185/15 NOI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 66% our own signal (89 maps of Noir Verse, 7 of Illyrians; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Noir Verse to beat Illyrians, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNoir Verse · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xeNji★ | 1.16 | 75.5 | 71% | 39% | 1.15 |
| Santuriano | 1 | 71.5 | 73.5% | 52% | 1.1 |
| Naginat | 0.93 | 79 | 69.4% | 64% | 1.08 |
| wh1temink | 0.97 | 72.8 | 68.4% | 65% | 1.07 |
| kirxttu | 0.97 | 69.3 | 72.7% | 49% | 1.02 |
Illyrians · avg 1.01 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Noir Verse
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Noir Verse57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Noir Verse 2-0
If the veto goes
Noir Verse 57%how the series ends43% Illyrians
34%2-017%
23%2-126%
Noir Verse61%11-6vsIllyrians39%1-2
65%Win33%
58%CT55%
56%T26%
56%Pistol50%
100%Conv67%
Noir Verse56%7-10vsIllyrians44%0-2
41%Win0%
56%CT19%
41%T40%
71%Pistol0%
83%Conv–
Noir Verse46%6-8vsIllyrians54%1-0
43%Win100%
49%CT56%
49%T67%
61%Pistol100%
59%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Noir VerseMirageIllyrians
58%CT side55%
56%T side26%
56%Pistol50%
100%After win67%
13%After loss33%
Noir VerseDust2Illyrians
56%CT side19%
41%T side40%
71%Pistol0%
83%After win–
0%After loss0%
Noir VerseAnubisIllyrians
49%CT side56%
49%T side67%
61%Pistol100%
59%After win100%
9%After loss–
Pistol rounds63% · 42% · Noir Verse win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 80% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol8% · 14% · Illyrians fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Noir Verse vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNOIILL
InfernoNOI ban0%0-2n/a0g
Illyrians on Inferno
no recent maps
NukeILL ban50%6-6n/a0g
Noir Verse on Nuke
L
HAVU9–1317d agoW
Atreides13–818d agoW
ex-Sashi Academy13–229d agoL
ENCE9–131mo agoL
Bushido Wildcats9–132mo agoL
MOUZ NXT6–132mo agoL
atputies13–162mo agoL
FOKUS7–133mo agoIllyrians on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageNOI pick65%11-633%1-2
Dust2ILL pick41%7-100%0-2
AncientNOI ban46%6-7100%1-0
CacheILL ban46%6-7n/a0g
Noir Verse on Cache
L
Phantom Academy0–136d agoL
ex-Zero Tenacity5–138d agoW
Spirit Academy16–129d agoL
megoshort11–1311d agoLHAVU9–1317d agoW
Honvéd13–1120d agoWBushido Wildcats13–627d agoW
LPH13–428d agoIllyrians on Cache
no recent maps
Anubisdecider43%6-8100%1-0
Each team's usual first ban: Noir Verse Inferno · Illyrians Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Noir Verse
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/42 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 42 maps they won, 13 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs SAW YoungstersMiragefrom 7 downvs AtreidesDust2from 7 downvs ex-Sashi AcademyAncientfrom 6 downvs ex-RUSTECCachefrom 6 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/47 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 14 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Phantom AcademyCacheled 13 · lost 0-13vs atputiesNukeled 6 · lost 13-16vs HonvédDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs EACMirageled 5 · lost 14-16vs MOUZ NXTCacheled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs SAW YoungstersMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni13 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Phantom AcademyCacheled 13 · lost 0-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs WBTNuke19-17vs EACMirage14-16vs atputiesNuke13-16vs ex-RUSTECCache16-13vs SAW YoungstersMirage16-13
Illyrians
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/3 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 1 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs VexarAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/4 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini6.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample