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Predictions / Saint Sinners vs Mai Tai · match preview
Saint Sinners vs Mai Tai: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier
SAIMAI
Saint Sinners
World #– · 3-7
VS
2026-09-26 08:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Mai Tai
World #– · 8-20
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
64%36%
The call
Saint Sinners are favoured: our model gives them 64% against Mai Tai. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Saint Sinners, firepower slightly favours Saint Sinners.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Saint SinnerspullMai Tai
Team strength1459
138965/35 SAI
Track record3–7
8–2056/44 SAI
Recent formLWLLW
LWLLL54/46 SAI
Roster rating1.02
1.0268/32 SAI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 86% our own signal (25 maps of Saint Sinners, 61 of Mai Tai).
Bottom line: Saint Sinners to beat Mai Tai, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSaint Sinners · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iRV1NG★ | 1 | 77.2 | 75.2% | 67% | 1.14 |
| pavlysha666 | 0.93 | 76.9 | 70.9% | 55% | 1.08 |
| deb0 | 0.92 | 73 | 68.2% | 65% | 1.03 |
| Caleyy | 0.97 | 72.6 | 65.9% | 64% | 1.01 |
| ves111 | 0.77 | 66.1 | 61.4% | 42% | 0.86 |
Mai Tai · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sEIS★ | 1.07 | 76.5 | 75.8% | 66% | 1.16 |
| Nami | 0.99 | 72.7 | 69.7% | 48% | 1.08 |
| Melavi | 1.06 | 71.1 | 67.4% | 35% | 1.04 |
| wazak | 0.89 | 70.9 | 72% | 57% | 0.98 |
| darchevile | 0.72 | 68.1 | 67.7% | 51% | 0.84 |
Recent form
Saint Sinners
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Permitta#1032-00-4
Saint Sinners vs Permitta
Sep 15WNuke13-8Dust213-9
Spirit Academy#1110-41-2
Mai Tai vs Spirit Academy
Sep 7LCache12-16Nuke13-4Anubis11-13
benched gods#1472-12-2
Saint Sinners vs benched gods
Sep 23WAnubis8-13Mirage13-7Dust213-7
KUUSAMO#2010-20-2
Saint Sinners vs KUUSAMO
Sep 22Lseries0-2Mai Tai vs KUUSAMO
Sep 23LDust210-13Nuke5-13Map lab
Saint Sinners70%to win the Bo3 · most likely Saint Sinners 2-0
If the veto goes
Saint Sinners 70%how the series ends30% Mai Tai
39%2-013%
31%2-117%
Saint Sinners70%3-1vsMai Tai30%2-5
75%Win29%
63%CT46%
48%T40%
38%Pistol43%
100%Conv83%
Saint Sinners55%2-3vsMai Tai45%6-11
40%Win35%
46%CT50%
47%T49%
40%Pistol41%
75%Conv71%
Saint Sinners65%2-2vsMai Tai35%2-7
50%Win22%
48%CT43%
52%T29%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv44%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Saint SinnersDust2Mai Tai
63%CT side46%
48%T side40%
38%Pistol43%
100%After win83%
0%After loss13%
Saint SinnersMirageMai Tai
46%CT side50%
47%T side49%
40%Pistol41%
75%After win71%
0%After loss20%
Saint SinnersNukeMai Tai
48%CT side43%
52%T side29%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win44%
0%After loss11%
Pistol rounds42% · 44% · level, no edge
After a won pistol91% · 66% · Saint Sinners keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 16% · Mai Tai fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Saint Sinners vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSAIMAI
CacheSAI ban0%0-150%3-3
Saint Sinners on Cache
LSpirit Academy4–1314d ago
InfernoMAI ban0%0-1n/a0g
Saint Sinners on Inferno
L
mellren10–1311d agoMai Tai on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2SAI pick75%3-129%2-5
MirageMAI pick40%2-335%6-11
AncientSAI ban25%1-357%4-3
AnubisMAI ban50%1-129%2-5
Nukedecider50%2-222%2-7
Each team's usual first ban: Saint Sinners Cache · Mai Tai Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Saint Sinners
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/9 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 5 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs LavkedAnubisfrom 6 downvs PermittaNukefrom 5 downvs PermittaDust2from 4 downvs IllyriansDust2from 3 downvs LeoMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/12 (58%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 7 (58%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Spirit AcademyNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs Spirit AcademyMirageled 5 · lost 7-13vs IllyriansMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs IllyriansAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedAnubisfrom 6 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs Spirit AcademyNuke14-16vs mellrenNuke22-20
Mai Tai
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i7/19 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 7 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs eternal premiumDust2from 5 downvs BERGMiragefrom 5 downvs benched godsCachefrom 4 downvs ROUNDSAncientfrom 3 downvs ROUNDSNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/34 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 34 maps they lost, 13 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Spirit AcademyAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13vs KUUSAMONukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs KUUSAMODust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs eternal premiumMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs MisaDust2led 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs eternal premiumDust2from 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Spirit AcademyAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs eternal premiumMirage13-16vs BASEMENT BOYSMirage14-16vs UNiTYMirage14-16vs UNiTYAnubis13-16vs ENCEAnubis14-16