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Predictions / Galorys vs Yawara · match preview
Galorys vs Yawara: CS2 match prediction · FERJEE In House Season 2
Galorys
World #95 · 44-37
VS
2026-09-23 16:30 UTC
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
Yawara
World #176 · 29-34
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
81%19%
The call · high confidence
Galorys are favoured: our model gives them 81% against Yawara. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Galorys, form clearly favours Galorys, firepower clearly favours Galorys.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
GaloryspullYawara
Team strength1664
150380/20 GAL
Track record44–37
29–3457/43 GAL
Recent formLWWLL
LLLLW75/25 GAL
Roster rating1.11
1.0597/3 GAL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (185 maps of Galorys, 150 of Yawara).
Bottom line: Galorys to beat Yawara, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGalorys · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| detr0ittJ★ | 1.18 | 69.3 | 77.3% | 29% | 1.17 |
| gbb | 1.07 | 79.5 | 73.9% | 52% | 1.17 |
| tomate | 1.1 | 75 | 74.7% | 52% | 1.15 |
| destiny | 1 | 71.4 | 72.6% | 51% | 1.07 |
| PKL | 0.86 | 66.3 | 73.1% | 54% | 0.99 |
Yawara · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Galorys
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Legacy#61-21-2
Galorys vs Legacy
Mar 27LOverpass13-8Ancient3-13Mirage5-13Yawara vs Legacy
Mar 27LMirage10-13Dust213-10Ancient3-13
MIBR#181-40-2
Yawara vs MIBR
Jan 24LAnubis1-13Mirage9-13
Fluxo#616-02-1
Yawara vs Fluxo
Jan 23WMirage13-4Nuke6-13Ancient13-8
Imperial#627-124-11
Galorys vs Imperial
Sep 9LInferno5-13Anubis5-13Sep 1LAnubis11-13Dust29-13Aug 30WAnubis13-4Inferno13-6+6 earlier meetings
Yawara vs Imperial
May 10LMirage13-10Inferno2-13Dust27-13Apr 27LAnubis5-13Inferno9-13Apr 26WDust213-11Inferno10-13Anubis13-6+3 earlier meetings
BESTIA#905-32-0
Galorys vs BESTIA
Sep 18WAncient13-10Dust213-7Jul 31LAncient16-12Cache19-22Dust211-13May 28WDust26-13Overpass13-8Nuke13-10Yawara vs BESTIA
Aug 7WMirage13-8Dust213-9
LP#1017-112-4
ODDIK#1134-62-5
Galorys vs ODDIK
Sep 6WAncient16-14Dust213-9Mar 21LNuke14-16Dust29-13Feb 26LOverpass13-9Dust24-13Ancient7-13+1 earlier meeting
Isurus#1172-14-3
Galorys vs Isurus
Apr 30WDust213-16Ancient13-8Nuke13-7Map lab
Galorys64%to win the Bo3 · most likely Galorys 2-1
If the veto goes
Galorys 64%how the series ends36% Yawara
32%2-016%
33%2-120%
Galorys72%28-14vsYawara28%11-15
67%Win42%
58%CT53%
50%T46%
42%Pistol48%
80%Conv83%
Galorys44%10-11vsYawara56%21-18
48%Win54%
58%CT52%
36%T48%
55%Pistol49%
87%Conv79%
Galorys62%7-6vsYawara38%6-9
54%Win40%
52%CT43%
47%T48%
35%Pistol53%
78%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
GalorysAncientYawara
58%CT side53%
50%T side46%
42%Pistol48%
80%After win83%
24%After loss19%
GalorysMirageYawara
58%CT side52%
36%T side48%
55%Pistol49%
87%After win79%
26%After loss5%
GalorysAnubisYawara
52%CT side43%
47%T side48%
35%Pistol53%
78%After win88%
18%After loss14%
Pistol rounds44% · 49% · Yawara win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol24% · 11% · Galorys fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Galorys vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapGALYAW
InfernoGAL ban25%1-355%6-5
NukeYAW ban50%17-1720%2-8
AncientGAL pick67%28-1442%11-15
MirageYAW pick48%10-1154%21-18
Dust2GAL ban42%14-1961%22-14
CacheYAW ban75%3-10%0-5
Each team's usual first ban: Galorys Inferno · Yawara Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Galorys
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/100 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 33 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 10 downvs Back to BackAncientfrom 7 downvs ElementalsAncientfrom 7 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 6 downvs UNO MILLENukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/85 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 85 maps they lost, 24 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MIBRMirageled 9 · lost 10-13vs LPNukeled 9 · lost 11-13vs SharksMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs MIBRNukeled 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MIBRMirageled 9 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs LPOverpass15-19vs SharksNuke14-16vs MIBRNuke13-16vs Keyd StarsDust222-19vs MarsborneAncient13-16
Yawara
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/71 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 71 maps they won, 19 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Prison BreakersDust2from 6 downvs Keyd StarsDust2from 6 downvs UNO MILLEMiragefrom 6 downvs IsurusInfernofrom 6 downvs BESTIAMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/79 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 18 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs paiN AcademyDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs ImperialDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs LegacyMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs Bounty HuntersAncientled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Prison BreakersDust2from 6 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs Prison BreakersDust216-14vs Bounty HuntersMirage16-14vs ImperialMirage14-16vs ImperialNuke17-19vs LPAncient14-16