Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / XDM vs The Huns · match preview
XDM vs The Huns: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2
XDM
World #220 · 5-8
VS
2026-09-23 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
The Huns
World #156 · 35-33
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
50%50%
23%
4.011.18Market · 3 books
77%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean The Huns at 77%. Form slightly favours XDM, firepower clearly favours XDM, head-to-head clearly favours The Huns.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
XDMpullThe Huns
Team strength1493
150753/47 THE
Track record5–8
35–3355/45 THE
Recent formWLWLL
WLLLL59/41 XDM
Roster rating1.09
1.0291/9 XDM
Head-to-head1 maps
4 maps71/29 THE
Bookmakers imply 23% for XDM (4.01 / 1.18); we land 27 points higher at 50%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 88% our own signal (32 maps of XDM, 158 of The Huns). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: The Huns leads 2–0.
Bottom line: XDM to beat The Huns, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsXDM · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| r1verLaKe★ | 1.29 | 79.6 | 73% | 39% | 1.23 |
| Shad0w | 1.04 | 81.5 | 71.5% | 55% | 1.12 |
| Kungao | 1 | 71.6 | 71.4% | 60% | 1.11 |
| darkk | 1 | 78 | 70.7% | 54% | 1.11 |
| rubeN | 0.77 | 61.2 | 69.6% | 44% | 0.89 |
The Huns · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
XDM
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6mo ago
XDM0 : 2
The Huns!8mo ago XDM1 : 2 The Huns!
XDM0 : 2 The Huns!⚠ Different lineup
XDM
outtaidao
inrubeN
The Huns
outsk0R, xerolte
inCozen, bexyz
XDM1 : 2 The Huns!⚠ Different lineup
XDM
outtaidao
inrubeN
The Huns
outsk0R, xerolte
inCozen, bexyz
5star#312-13-4
Rare Atom#1021-24-8
XDM vs Rare Atom
Apr 2LMirage7-13Dust213-8Ancient9-13The Huns vs Rare Atom
Sep 1LDust27-13Inferno13-9Mirage10-13Aug 28LCache13-6Dust214-16Mirage19-22Aug 22LCache0-13Mirage3-13+2 earlier meetings
Chinggis Warriors#1600-216-7
XDM vs Chinggis Warriors
Aug 26LMirage8-13Nuke10-13The Huns vs Chinggis Warriors
Sep 2LInferno7-13Dust213-9Nuke7-13Aug 23WInferno9-13Dust213-9Nuke13-11Jul 23WInferno7-13Nuke13-9Dust213-4+6 earlier meetings
Nas#1741-24-1
XDM vs Nas
Aug 27LNuke13-7Mirage14-16Ancient5-13Map lab
The Huns65%to win the Bo3 · most likely The Huns 2-0
If the veto goes
XDM 35%how the series ends65% The Huns
16%2-036%
19%2-129%
XDM38%2-8vsThe Huns62%7-14
20%Win33%
49%CT51%
41%T36%
70%Pistol43%
79%Conv89%
XDM41%2-2vsThe Huns59%23-13
50%Win64%
52%CT60%
46%T48%
50%Pistol47%
50%Conv82%
XDM40%2-3vsThe Huns60%16-13
40%Win55%
52%CT54%
51%T49%
80%Pistol57%
75%Conv91%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
XDMMirageThe Huns
49%CT side51%
41%T side36%
70%Pistol43%
79%After win89%
0%After loss0%
XDMNukeThe Huns
52%CT side60%
46%T side48%
50%Pistol47%
50%After win82%
0%After loss18%
XDMAncientThe Huns
52%CT side54%
51%T side49%
80%Pistol57%
75%After win91%
0%After loss20%
Pistol rounds68% · 49% · XDM win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol73% · 87% · The Huns keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 14% · The Huns fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, XDM vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapXDMTHE
CacheXDM ban0%0-160%3-2
AnubisTHE ban100%1-0n/a0g
XDM on Anubis
W
Just Swing13–56mo agoThe Huns on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageXDM pick20%2-833%7-14
NukeTHE pick50%2-264%23-13
InfernoXDM ban75%3-142%11-15
Dust2THE ban67%4-251%18-17
Ancientdecider40%2-355%16-13
Each team's usual first ban: XDM Inferno · The Huns Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
XDM
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/15 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 15 maps they won, 4 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Just SwingDust2from 4 downvs UnitronicsDust2from 3 downvs 5starInfernofrom 3 downvs NasNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/17 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 17 maps they lost, 8 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The HunsDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs PATSANVISIONMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs Chinggis WarriorsMirageled 4 · lost 8-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs SecretInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Just SwingDust2from 4 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The HunsDust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs The HunsMirage19-22vs NasMirage14-16
The Huns
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/82 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 21 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs XDMDust2from 7 downvs NEXVOIDNukefrom 7 downvs NOVAQAncientfrom 7 downvs Lynn VisionDust2from 6 downvs Chinggis WarriorsNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/76 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 16 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NEXVOIDDust2led 8 · lost 12-16vs MorningstarInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs The QUBEMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs NEXVOIDAncientled 5 · lost 13-16vs The QUBEInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs XDMDust2from 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NEXVOIDDust2led 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs NomadSInferno19-16vs NEXVOIDAncient13-16vs NEXVOIDInferno14-16vs Chinggis WarriorsInferno16-13vs Lynn VisionDust219-17