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Predictions / Isurus vs METANOIA Wolves · match preview
Isurus vs METANOIA Wolves: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
Isurus
World #117 · 40-31
VS
2026-09-22 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
METANOIA Wolves
World #225 · 13-30
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
78%22%
The call · high confidence
Isurus are favoured: our model gives them 78% against METANOIA Wolves. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Isurus, record slightly favours Isurus, form slightly favours Isurus, firepower clearly favours Isurus.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
IsuruspullMETANOIA Wolves
Team strength1552
136384/16 ISU
Track record40–31
13–3067/33 ISU
Recent formLWLLW
LLLWL64/36 ISU
Roster rating1.07
0.9372/28 ISU
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (172 maps of Isurus, 98 of METANOIA Wolves).
Bottom line: Isurus to beat METANOIA Wolves, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsIsurus · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
METANOIA Wolves · avg 0.93 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALENNNCAR★ | 1.02 | 72.1 | 69% | 35% | 1.08 |
| vzn | 0.84 | 69.9 | 66.9% | 47% | 0.95 |
| khowy | 0.79 | 60 | 69.1% | 65% | 0.93 |
| Tineu | 0.75 | 60.4 | 63.6% | 44% | 0.87 |
| kepeer | 0.53 | 57 | 78.7% | 44% | 0.81 |
Recent form
Isurus
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Imperial#621-60-1
Isurus vs Imperial
Aug 14LCache1-13Inferno4-13Jul 11LMirage13-11Nuke5-13Inferno5-13Jul 8LMirage8-13Nuke11-13METANOIA Wolves vs Imperial
Apr 24LNuke6-13
BESTIA#901-40-2
METANOIA Wolves vs BESTIA
Aug 5LDust28-13Mirage5-13
LP#1014-70-3
Isurus vs LP
May 23LMirage10-13Ancient13-11Inferno5-13May 14LDust213-9Inferno8-13Ancient5-13May 10LDust27-13Nuke3-13+1 earlier meeting
ODDIK#1132-30-2
METANOIA Wolves vs ODDIK
Sep 4LMirage5-13Ancient11-13
Turma do Pagode#1244-31-0
Isurus vs Turma do Pagode
Sep 7LAncient11-13Inferno14-16Aug 28WInferno13-9Ancient6-13Dust213-4May 10WAncient13-11Inferno13-8METANOIA Wolves vs Turma do Pagode
Apr 24WDust219-16
Bounty Hunters#1383-54-2
Isurus vs Bounty Hunters
Apr 30LDust26-13Ancient6-13Apr 27WDust213-10Ancient10-13Mirage16-13Mar 24LAncient9-13Dust213-6Nuke2-13METANOIA Wolves vs Bounty Hunters
May 4LAnubis4-13Ancient7-13Mar 25WDust213-6Mirage13-11Mar 21WDust213-10Nuke19-17
Patins da Ferrari#1542-10-2
Isurus vs Patins da Ferrari
Jul 24WCache16-14Ancient4-13Dust213-6METANOIA Wolves vs Patins da Ferrari
Jul 14LMirage1-13Ancient9-13
Keyd Stars#1643-53-4
Isurus vs Keyd Stars
Aug 27WAncient2-13Inferno13-10Dust213-6May 23LOverpass1-13Ancient13-4Dust26-13Mar 5LDust22-13Mirage11-13METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars
May 22LDust29-13Ancient2-13May 16LAncient13-1Dust211-13Nuke11-13Apr 24WNuke13-9Anubis13-8Map lab
Isurus67%to win the Bo3 · most likely Isurus 2-0
If the veto goes
Isurus 67%how the series ends33% METANOIA Wolves
45%2-010%
21%2-123%
Isurus61%30-19vsMETANOIA Wolves39%16-16
61%Win50%
55%CT54%
52%T51%
45%Pistol55%
77%Conv83%
Isurus74%22-15vsMETANOIA Wolves26%5-11
59%Win31%
51%CT43%
55%T45%
50%Pistol44%
89%Conv50%
Isurus48%10-17vsMETANOIA Wolves52%5-8
37%Win38%
49%CT47%
47%T39%
52%Pistol54%
96%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
IsurusDust2METANOIA Wolves
55%CT side54%
52%T side51%
45%Pistol55%
77%After win83%
24%After loss10%
IsurusInfernoMETANOIA Wolves
51%CT side43%
55%T side45%
50%Pistol44%
89%After win50%
38%After loss28%
IsurusNukeMETANOIA Wolves
49%CT side47%
47%T side39%
52%Pistol54%
96%After win79%
27%After loss0%
Pistol rounds48% · 52% · METANOIA Wolves win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 75% · Isurus keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol29% · 14% · Isurus fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Isurus vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapISUMET
AnubisISU ban0%0-120%1-4
Isurus on Anubis
L
FURIA fe4–137mo agoMirageMET ban52%13-129%1-10
Dust2ISU pick61%30-1950%16-16
InfernoMET pick59%22-1531%5-11
AncientISU ban43%9-1241%7-10
CacheMET ban67%4-20%0-3
Each team's usual first ban: Isurus Anubis · METANOIA Wolves Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Isurus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/91 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 91 maps they won, 33 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs Patins da FerrariCachefrom 10 downvs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 7 downvs FOLHA AMARELAInfernofrom 6 downvs CrashersDust2from 6 downvs R2Overpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/81 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 81 maps they lost, 20 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-KRÜMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs ShindeNNukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs YawaraInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs PeladonaInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Patins da FerrariCachefrom 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-KRÜMirageled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs FURIA feMirage16-13vs UNO MILLENuke12-16vs R2Overpass19-15vs RED Canids AcademyDust214-16vs ProcyonInferno16-13
METANOIA Wolves
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/35 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 35 maps they won, 8 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs GUARADust2from 10 downvs GUARANukefrom 5 downvs MAGICOSInfernofrom 4 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 3 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/63 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 63 maps they lost, 16 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GUARACacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs LPAncientled 5 · lost 7-13vs Keyd StarsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs ImperialNukeled 4 · lost 6-13vs LPNukeled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GUARADust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GUARACacheled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs Bounty HuntersNuke19-17vs VascoAncient13-16vs Turma do PagodeDust219-16vs GUARANuke16-13vs MAGICOSDust219-22