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Predictions / ODDIK vs Sementes do Mal · match preview
ODDIK vs Sementes do Mal: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
ODDIK
World #113 · 39-22
VS
2026-09-22 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Sementes do Mal
World #– · 0-5
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
80%20%
The call · high confidence
ODDIK are favoured: our model gives them 80% against Sementes do Mal. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours ODDIK, record clearly favours ODDIK, form clearly favours ODDIK, firepower clearly favours ODDIK.
Likely mapsDust2 · Cache · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ODDIKpullSementes do Mal
Team strength1635
142487/13 ODD
Track record39–22
0–594/6 ODD
Recent formLWWLW
LLLLL83/17 ODD
Roster rating1.14
0.82100/0 ODD
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 72% our own signal (142 maps of ODDIK, 10 of Sementes do Mal).
Bottom line: ODDIK to beat Sementes do Mal, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsODDIK · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Sementes do Mal · avg 0.82 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ODDIK
Sementes do Mal
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Grêmio#1902-00-2
ODDIK vs Grêmio
Aug 30WAncient13-9Cache13-3Sementes do Mal vs Grêmio
Aug 26LInferno6-13Mirage2-13MEIMEIA NOITE2-00-2
ODDIK vs MEIA NOITE
Aug 26WMirage13-10Dust213-2Sementes do Mal vs MEIA NOITE
Aug 27Lseries0-2Map lab
ODDIK62%to win the Bo3 · most likely ODDIK 2-0
If the veto goes
ODDIK 62%how the series ends38% Sementes do Mal
38%2-014%
24%2-124%
ODDIK55%21-9vsSementes do Mal45%0-1
70%Win0%
62%CT58%
56%T20%
53%Pistol50%
81%Conv100%
ODDIK68%4-2vsSementes do Mal32%0-3
67%Win0%
47%CT48%
64%T28%
58%Pistol33%
100%Conv100%
ODDIK50%9-8thinSementes do Mal50%0-0
53%Win–
52%CT–
48%T–
56%Pistol–
89%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ODDIKDust2Sementes do Mal
62%CT side58%
56%T side20%
53%Pistol50%
81%After win100%
39%After loss0%
ODDIKCacheSementes do Mal
47%CT side48%
64%T side28%
58%Pistol33%
100%After win100%
40%After loss25%
ODDIKAnubisSementes do Mal
52%CT side–
48%T side–
56%Pistol–
89%After win–
7%After loss–
Pistol rounds55% · 38% · ODDIK win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 100% · Sementes do Mal keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol29% · 20% · ODDIK fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ODDIK vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapODDSEM
MirageODD ban80%8-20%0-3
NukeSEM ban52%11-10n/a0g
ODDIK on Nuke
W
ex-MIBR Academy13–822d agoW
Isurus16–142mo agoW
LP13–72mo agoW
Red Feet13–72mo agoL
Keyd Stars10–135mo agoL
Fluxo7–136mo agoL
9z7–136mo agoL9z14–166mo agoSementes do Mal on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2ODD pick70%21-90%0-1
CacheSEM pick67%4-20%0-3
InfernoODD ban54%7-60%0-1
AncientSEM ban52%15-14n/a0g
ODDIK on Ancient
L
Galorys14–1613d agoW
METANOIA Wolves13–1115d agoWGrêmio13–920d agoWIsurus13–325d agoLLP4–132mo agoWBORRACHEIROS13–102mo agoL
Patins da Ferrari11–132mo agoLKeyd Stars7–135mo agoSementes do Mal on Ancient
no recent maps
Anubisdecider53%9-8n/a0g
ODDIK on Anubis
Lex-MIBR Academy9–1322d agoW
Yawara13–423d agoW
Procyon13–112mo agoW
paiN Academy13–52mo agoLFake do Biru9–135mo agoWFake do Biru13–86mo agoWYawara13–97mo agoL
MIBR1–137mo agoSementes do Mal on Anubis
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: ODDIK Mirage · Sementes do Mal Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ODDIK
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/83 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 83 maps they won, 19 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 7 downvs MEIA NOITEMiragefrom 6 downvs GameHuntersNukefrom 5 downvs ImperialDust2from 5 downvs GalorysOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/57 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 18 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ImperialAnubisled 8 · lost 14-16vs Patins da FerrariDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs FluxoDust2led 5 · lost 18-22vs MarsborneInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13vs Keyd StarsNukeled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ImperialAnubisled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs FluxoAncient22-18vs GameHuntersNuke16-14vs ImperialAnubis14-16vs FluxoDust218-22vs LPAncient13-16
Sementes do Mal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/8 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 2 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13vs RUSHMirageled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi13% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT13% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample