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Predictions / DAMAJUANA vs MEIA NOITE · match preview
DAMAJUANA vs MEIA NOITE: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
DAMAJUANA
World #227 · 2-11
VS
2026-09-23 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
MEIA NOITE
World #– · 4-12
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
41%59%
16%
5.91.09Market · 5 books
84%The call
MEIA NOITE are favoured: our model gives them 59% against DAMAJUANA. Bookmakers lean MEIA NOITE at 84%. Record slightly favours MEIA NOITE, form slightly favours DAMAJUANA, firepower clearly favours MEIA NOITE.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
DAMAJUANApullMEIA NOITE
Team strength1393
142557/43 MEI
Track record2–11
4–1265/35 MEI
Recent formLLLWL
LLLLW57/43 DAM
Roster rating0.85
0.9981/19 MEI
Bookmakers imply 16% for DAMAJUANA (5.9 / 1.09); we land 25 points higher at 41%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 87% our own signal (29 maps of DAMAJUANA, 38 of MEIA NOITE).
Bottom line: MEIA NOITE to beat DAMAJUANA, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsDAMAJUANA · avg 0.85 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
MEIA NOITE · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nyezin★ | 1.09 | 85.5 | 70.7% | 48% | 1.16 |
| abr | 1 | 75 | 72.2% | 55% | 1.06 |
| Jerr1 | 0.89 | 64.2 | 68.8% | 51% | 0.98 |
| bsd | 0.98 | 66.3 | 70.2% | 33% | 0.95 |
| CutzMeretz | 0.71 | 63.8 | 65.4% | 46% | 0.78 |
Recent form
DAMAJUANA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bounty Hunters#950-20-4
DAMAJUANA vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 22LMirage6-13Cache10-13BORBORRACHEIROS#1911-43-2
paiN Academy0-21-2
DAMAJUANA vs paiN Academy
Aug 30LMirage4-13Nuke4-13MEIA NOITE vs paiN Academy
Aug 6LMirage8-13Inferno13-2Cache11-13Map lab
MEIA NOITE63%to win the Bo3 · most likely MEIA NOITE 2-1
If the veto goes
DAMAJUANA 37%how the series ends63% MEIA NOITE
20%2-029%
17%2-134%
DAMAJUANA54%1-2vsMEIA NOITE46%1-3
33%Win25%
30%CT45%
36%T48%
17%Pistol50%
0%Conv75%
DAMAJUANA37%1-5vsMEIA NOITE63%3-6
17%Win33%
39%CT49%
38%T43%
42%Pistol50%
80%Conv89%
DAMAJUANA33%1-6vsMEIA NOITE67%2-1
14%Win67%
49%CT40%
30%T78%
14%Pistol50%
50%Conv67%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
DAMAJUANANukeMEIA NOITE
30%CT side45%
36%T side48%
17%Pistol50%
0%After win75%
0%After loss0%
DAMAJUANAMirageMEIA NOITE
39%CT side49%
38%T side43%
42%Pistol50%
80%After win89%
0%After loss22%
DAMAJUANAInfernoMEIA NOITE
49%CT side40%
30%T side78%
14%Pistol50%
50%After win67%
9%After loss33%
Pistol rounds25% · 50% · MEIA NOITE win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol63% · 81% · MEIA NOITE keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol4% · 19% · MEIA NOITE fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, DAMAJUANA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapDAMMEI
Dust2DAM ban0%0-143%3-4
AnubisMEI ban40%2-3n/a0g
DAMAJUANA on Anubis
LBORRACHEIROS4–131d agoW
Zetta13–523d agoLBORRACHEIROS3–1329d agoWELITES13–55mo agoLFOLHA AMARELA1–137mo agoMEIA NOITE on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeDAM pick33%1-225%1-3
MirageMEI pick17%1-533%3-6
AncientDAM ban0%0-422%2-7
CacheMEI ban33%1-20%0-4
Infernodecider14%1-667%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: DAMAJUANA Dust2 · MEIA NOITE Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
DAMAJUANA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/6 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 2 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs ELITESInfernofrom 3 downvs ZettaAnubisfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/23 (17%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 4 (17%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ELITESAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs VascoMirageled 3 · lost 18-22vs PlayersInfernoled 3 · lost 17-19vs Bounty HuntersCacheled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ELITESInfernofrom 3 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ELITESAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs PlayersInferno16-19vs VascoMirage18-22vs PlayersInferno17-19
MEIA NOITE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/11 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 4 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 downvs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 4 downvs MiraAncientfrom 4 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/25 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 11 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs QUINTESSÊNCIAAncientled 8 · lost 8-13vs Turma do PagodeDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs BORRACHEIROSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs ODDIKMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs BORRACHEIROSAncient13-16vs METANOIA WolvesMirage22-20vs METANOIA WolvesAncient12-16vs GrêmioDust216-14vs ex-MIBR AcademyMirage13-16