regain vs FarmVille: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2

One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.

Bookmakers imply 54% for regain (1.69 / 2); we land 7 points higher at 61%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (125 maps of regain, 99 of FarmVille). Head-to-head they've met 4 times: split 2–2.

Bottom line: regain to beat FarmVille, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.