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Predictions / New Legends vs FRZ · match preview
New Legends vs FRZ: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
NEWFRZ
New Legends
World #– · 1-3
VS
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
FRZ
World #– · 2-7
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
55%45%
The call
New Legends are favoured: our model gives them 55% against FRZ. No odds yet. Firepower slightly favours FRZ.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
New LegendspullFRZ
Team strength1473
144756/44 NEW
Track record1–3
2–752/48 FRZ
Recent formLLWLLLWLL50/50
Roster rating0.96
0.9763/37 FRZ
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 72% our own signal (10 maps of New Legends, 21 of FRZ).
Bottom line: New Legends to beat FRZ, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNew Legends · avg 0.96 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TheJelly★ | 0.83 | 80.1 | 69.3% | 56% | 1.05 |
| Electrician | 0.93 | 73.2 | 65.8% | 65% | 1.02 |
| tmk | 0.85 | 65.3 | 65.5% | 30% | 0.95 |
| frog | 0.78 | 68.1 | 68.9% | 46% | 0.91 |
| AGB | 0.74 | 64.5 | 62.1% | 42% | 0.85 |
FRZ · avg 0.97 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
New Legends
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
FRZ58%to win the Bo3 · most likely FRZ 2-0
If the veto goes
New Legends 42%how the series ends58% FRZ
17%2-034%
24%2-124%
New Legends40%0-3vsFRZ60%1-1
0%Win50%
27%CT29%
22%T52%
0%Pistol50%
–Conv50%
New Legends44%0-2vsFRZ56%2-3
0%Win40%
43%CT63%
26%T35%
75%Pistol40%
67%Conv100%
New Legends50%1-0vsFRZ50%1-0
100%Win100%
50%CT90%
70%T33%
100%Pistol50%
50%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
New LegendsDust2FRZ
27%CT side29%
22%T side52%
0%Pistol50%
–After win50%
17%After loss0%
New LegendsInfernoFRZ
43%CT side63%
26%T side35%
75%Pistol40%
67%After win100%
0%After loss50%
New LegendsNukeFRZ
50%CT side90%
70%T side33%
100%Pistol50%
50%After win100%
–After loss0%
Pistol rounds42% · 44% · level, no edge
After a won pistol60% · 86% · FRZ keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol14% · 33% · FRZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, New Legends vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEWFRZ
CacheNEW bann/a0gn/a0g
New Legends on Cache
no recent maps
FRZ on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisFRZ bann/a0g0%0-2
New Legends on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2NEW pick0%0-350%1-1
InfernoFRZ pick0%0-240%2-3
AncientNEW ban33%1-233%2-4
MirageFRZ ban100%1-020%1-4
New Legends on Mirage
W
Club 33313–727d agoNukedecider100%1-0100%1-0
New Legends on Nuke
W
EMPIRE13–926d agoFRZ on Nuke
W
F513–94mo agoEach team's usual first ban: New Legends Cache · FRZ Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
New Legends
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/3 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/7 (14%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 1 (14%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VocaAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 1 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VocaAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
FRZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/7 (71%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 5 (71%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 71% of their wins were comebacks, not 71% of all games.vs NXGAncientfrom 8 downvs F5Nukefrom 6 downvs NXGDust2from 5 downvs F5Infernofrom 3 downvs Reign AboveAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/14 (43%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 14 maps they lost, 6 (43%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs F5Ancientled 6 · lost 10-13vs MarsborneAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs Reign AboveMirageled 4 · lost 10-13vs F5Mirageled 3 · lost 10-13vs WildcardMirageled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NXGAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs F5Ancientled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample