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Predictions / FlyQuest RED vs Wanted Goons · match preview
FlyQuest RED vs Wanted Goons: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
FlyQuest RED
World #– · 1-13
VS
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Wanted Goons
World #230 · 11-23
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
46%54%
22%
4.161.16Market · 3 books
78%The call
Wanted Goons are favoured: our model gives them 54% against FlyQuest RED. Bookmakers lean Wanted Goons at 78%. Record clearly favours Wanted Goons, firepower slightly favours FlyQuest RED, head-to-head slightly favours Wanted Goons.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FlyQuest REDpullWanted Goons
Team strength1367
139055/45 WAN
Track record1–13
11–2377/23 WAN
Recent formLLLLLLLLLL50/50
Roster rating0.94
1.0561/39 FLY
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 WAN
Bookmakers imply 22% for FlyQuest RED (4.16 / 1.16); we land 24 points higher at 46%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 88% our own signal (31 maps of FlyQuest RED, 76 of Wanted Goons). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Wanted Goons leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Wanted Goons to beat FlyQuest RED, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFlyQuest RED · avg 0.94 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Wanted Goons · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan★ | 1.02 | 75.4 | 69.1% | 54% | 1.11 |
| killerPandas | 1.03 | 74.5 | 70.4% | 37% | 1.08 |
| hibui | 0.94 | 68.8 | 68.9% | 48% | 1.03 |
| relt | 0.82 | 72.7 | 70.3% | 55% | 1.02 |
| febreeze | 0.85 | 72.4 | 68.9% | 53% | 1 |
Recent form
FlyQuest RED
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
LAG#980-21-6
FlyQuest RED vs LAG
Feb 27LAncient5-13Nuke4-13
regain#1630-20-2
FlyQuest RED vs regain
Apr 3LDust28-13Ancient6-13Wanted Goons vs regain
Apr 29LInferno10-13Ancient7-13
F5#2131-25-4
BOSS0-20-2
FlyQuest RED vs BOSS
Apr 4LMirage5-13Ancient3-13Wanted Goons vs BOSS
Mar 29LDust28-13Mirage7-13
Reign Above0-20-2
FlyQuest RED vs Reign Above
Feb 7LDust29-13Ancient7-13Wanted Goons vs Reign Above
May 30LInferno10-13Nuke17-19Map lab
Wanted Goons66%to win the Bo3 · most likely Wanted Goons 2-0
If the veto goes
FlyQuest RED 34%how the series ends66% Wanted Goons
15%2-035%
19%2-132%
FlyQuest RED52%1-3vsWanted Goons48%4-10
25%Win29%
36%CT56%
31%T35%
38%Pistol54%
67%Conv87%
FlyQuest RED29%2-8vsWanted Goons71%9-11
20%Win45%
40%CT51%
37%T46%
40%Pistol55%
63%Conv86%
FlyQuest RED37%1-5vsWanted Goons63%4-8
17%Win33%
41%CT48%
47%T40%
42%Pistol29%
80%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FlyQuest REDNukeWanted Goons
36%CT side56%
31%T side35%
38%Pistol54%
67%After win87%
0%After loss23%
FlyQuest REDAncientWanted Goons
40%CT side51%
37%T side46%
40%Pistol55%
63%After win86%
0%After loss22%
FlyQuest REDDust2Wanted Goons
41%CT side48%
47%T side40%
42%Pistol29%
80%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds40% · 48% · Wanted Goons win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol69% · 89% · Wanted Goons keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 15% · Wanted Goons fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FlyQuest RED vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFLYWAN
InfernoFLY bann/a0g25%1-3
FlyQuest RED on Inferno
no recent maps
Wanted Goons on Inferno
W
Olympus13–18d agoLReign Above10–134mo agoLregain10–135mo agoL
EMPIRE11–136mo agoCacheWAN bann/a0g0%0-1
FlyQuest RED on Cache
no recent maps
Wanted Goons on Cache
L
Iowa Stormboar13–16todayNukeFLY pick25%1-329%4-10
AncientWAN pick20%2-845%9-11
AnubisFLY ban0%0-133%1-2
FlyQuest RED on Anubis
L
Marsborne1–137mo agoMirageWAN ban0%0-1020%3-12
Dust2decider17%1-533%4-8
Each team's usual first ban: FlyQuest RED Inferno · Wanted Goons Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FlyQuest RED
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/4 (75%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 3 (75%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 75% of their wins were comebacks, not 75% of all games.vs Money CrewAncientfrom 6 downvs Wanted GoonsNukefrom 4 downvs F5Ancientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/27 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 7 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Money CrewDust2led 7 · lost 18-22vs SakuraMirageled 6 · lost 20-22vs Fisher CollegeAncientled 4 · lost 9-13vs regainAncientled 4 · lost 6-13vs WildcardMirageled 3 · lost 4-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Money CrewAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Money CrewDust2led 7 · lost 18-22
Avg map margini6.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs F5Ancient22-20vs Money CrewDust218-22vs SakuraMirage20-22vs SakuraAncient13-16
Wanted Goons
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/27 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 27 maps they won, 9 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs EMPIREDust2from 5 downvs NuToriousAncientfrom 5 downvs ZomblersNukefrom 4 downvs Overtake SectorAncientfrom 4 downvs VillainousAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/48 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 20 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs DETONATEAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs Desi BoyzNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs EMPIREInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LAGDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EMPIREDust2from 5 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs DETONATEAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs ZomblersNuke22-18vs Reign AboveNuke17-19vs BrahmasOverpass16-13vs BrahmasNuke13-16vs DETONATEAncient14-16