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Predictions / INFURITY vs Diamant · match preview
INFURITY vs Diamant: CS2 match prediction · Tipsport Open Cup 2
Tipsport Open Cup 2 · Best of 3
63%37%
73%
1.273.44Market · 13 books
27%The call
INFURITY are favoured: our model gives them 63% against Diamant. Bookmakers lean INFURITY at 73%. Strength slightly favours INFURITY, record clearly favours INFURITY, form slightly favours INFURITY, firepower slightly favours Diamant.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INFURITYpullDiamant
Team strength1495
144960/40 INF
Track record2–4
2–570/30 INF
Recent formWLLLL
LLWLL58/42 INF
Roster rating1.01
1.0466/34 DIA
Bookmakers imply 73% for INFURITY (1.27 / 3.44); we land 10 points lower at 63%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 74% our own signal (11 maps of INFURITY, 13 of Diamant).
Bottom line: INFURITY to beat Diamant, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsINFURITY · avg 1.01 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Diamant · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Diamant55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Diamant 2-0
If the veto goes
INFURITY 45%how the series ends55% Diamant
20%2-030%
25%2-125%
INFURITY50%2-2thinDiamant50%0-0
50%Win–
48%CT–
56%T–
50%Pistol–
100%Conv–
INFURITY39%0-2vsDiamant61%2-1
0%Win67%
46%CT76%
35%T47%
50%Pistol67%
100%Conv100%
INFURITY50%0-0thinDiamant50%0-0
–Win–
–CT–
–T–
–Pistol–
–Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
INFURITYInfernoDiamant
48%CT side–
56%T side–
50%Pistol–
100%After win–
25%After loss–
INFURITYAncientDiamant
46%CT side76%
35%T side47%
50%Pistol67%
100%After win100%
0%After loss50%
INFURITYCacheDiamant
–CT side–
–T side–
–Pistol–
–After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds50% · 67% · Diamant win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 100% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol17% · 50% · Diamant fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INFURITY vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINFDIA
MirageINF bann/a0g0%0-3
INFURITY on Mirage
no recent maps
Dust2DIA ban100%1-00%0-1
INFURITY on Dust2
W
BIG Academy13–96mo agoDiamant on Dust2
Lrottweilers6–136mo agoInfernoINF pick50%2-2n/a0g
INFURITY on Inferno
W
VanirQuick13–53mo agoWBIG Academy13–95mo agoLBIG Academy11–136mo agoL
SemperFi6–138mo agoDiamant on Inferno
no recent maps
AncientDIA pick0%0-267%2-1
AnubisINF bann/a0g0%0-4
INFURITY on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeDIA ban67%2-10%0-1
Diamant on Nuke
Lrottweilers11–136mo agoCachedecidern/a0gn/a0g
INFURITY on Cache
no recent maps
Diamant on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: INFURITY Mirage · Diamant Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
INFURITY
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/5 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/6 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 3 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Johnny SpeedsNukeled 3 · lost 4-13vs BIG AcademyInfernoled 3 · lost 11-13vs BIG AcademyAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Johnny SpeedsNukeled 3 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi18% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT18% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Diamant
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/3 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 1 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs aimclubAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/10 (20%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 2 (20%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Phantom AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs aimclubMirageled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs aimclubAncientfrom 4 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Phantom AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs FIGHTERSAnubis16-19