Four Magic are favoured: our model gives them 61% against INFINITE Talent. Bookmakers lean Four Magic at 60%. Record slightly favours Four Magic, form slightly favours Four Magic, firepower clearly favours Four Magic.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INFINITE TalentpullFour Magic
Team strength1479
147751/49 INF
Track record0–2
2–469/31 FOU
Recent formLL
LLLWL67/33 FOU
Roster rating0.7
0.99100/0 FOU
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 40% for INFINITE Talent (2.29 / 1.55) and we land at 39%, the same read. This read is 50% our own signal (3 maps of INFINITE Talent, 12 of Four Magic; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Four Magic to beat INFINITE Talent, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings
INFINITE Talent · avg 0.7 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Four Magic · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
No prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Four Magic52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Four Magic 2-0
If the veto goes
INFINITE Talent 48%how the series ends52% Four Magic
23%2-027%
25%2-125%
Map 1Dust2INFINITE Tale… pick
INFINITE Talent47%0-1vsFour Magic53%1-1
0%Win50%
0%CT35%
8%T67%
0%Pistol75%
–Conv100%
Map 2InfernoFour Magic pick
INFINITE Talent49%0-1vsFour Magic51%1-2
0%Win33%
17%CT33%
40%T42%
50%Pistol67%
100%Conv50%
Map 3Cachedecider
INFINITE Talent50%0-0thinFour Magic50%0-0
–Win–
–CT–
–T–
–Pistol–
–Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
INFINITE TalentDust2Four Magic
0%CT side35%
8%T side67%
0%Pistol75%
–After win100%
0%After loss0%
INFINITE TalentInfernoFour Magic
17%CT side33%
40%T side42%
50%Pistol67%
100%After win50%
0%After loss50%
INFINITE TalentCacheFour Magic
–CT side–
–T side–
–Pistol–
–After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds25% · 70% · Four Magic win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 71% · INFINITE Talent keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 33% · Four Magic fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INFINITE Talent vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: INFINITE Talent Nuke · Four Magic Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
INFINITE Talent
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/3 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 3 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini10.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Four Magic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/4 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 1 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs VascoOverpassfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/8 (13%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 1 (13%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LPDust2led 4 · lost 9-13