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Predictions / Four Magic vs 95 Vikings · match preview
Four Magic vs 95 Vikings: CS2 match prediction · Tipsport Open Cup 2
Four Magic
World #– · 2-4
VS
2026-09-24 14:15 UTC
Tipsport Open Cup 2 · Best of 3
95 Vikings
World #– · 0-2
Tipsport Open Cup 2 · Best of 3
72%28%
79%
1.164.42Market · 2 books
21%The call
Four Magic are favoured: our model gives them 72% against 95 Vikings. Bookmakers lean Four Magic at 79%. Record clearly favours Four Magic, form slightly favours Four Magic, firepower clearly favours Four Magic.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Four Magicpull95 Vikings
Team strength1477
146752/48 FOU
Track record2–4
0–274/26 FOU
Recent formLLLWL
LL67/33 FOU
Roster rating0.99
0.8197/3 FOU
Bookmakers imply 79% for Four Magic (1.16 / 4.42); we land 7 points lower at 72%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 55% our own signal (12 maps of Four Magic, 4 of 95 Vikings; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Four Magic to beat 95 Vikings, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFour Magic · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
95 Vikings · avg 0.81 · star gap +0.55iStar gap: the best player rates 0.55 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| deoz★ | 1.08 | 90.4 | 67.8% | 45% | 1.36 |
| Greku | 0.76 | 62.4 | 63.5% | 52% | 0.84 |
| NeroF | 0.57 | 59.9 | 58.5% | 48% | 0.67 |
| allannissan | 0.53 | 51 | 52.3% | 31% | 0.62 |
| Kalafi0r | 0.37 | 44.8 | 50.7% | 48% | 0.56 |
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Four Magic51%to win the Bo3 · most likely Four Magic 2-0
If the veto goes
Four Magic 51%how the series ends49% 95 Vikings
26%2-024%
25%2-125%
Four Magic53%1-1vs95 Vikings47%0-1
50%Win0%
35%CT13%
67%T50%
75%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Four Magic50%0-1vs95 Vikings50%0-1
0%Win0%
42%CT17%
0%T40%
0%Pistol0%
–Conv–
Four Magic50%0-0thin95 Vikings50%0-0
–Win–
–CT–
–T–
–Pistol–
–Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Four MagicDust295 Vikings
35%CT side13%
67%T side50%
75%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Four MagicAnubis95 Vikings
42%CT side17%
0%T side40%
0%Pistol0%
–After win–
0%After loss0%
Four MagicCache95 Vikings
–CT side–
–T side–
–Pistol–
–After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds50% · 25% · Four Magic win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 100% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol0% · 0% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Four Magic vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFOU95
AncientFOU bann/a0g0%0-2
Four Magic on Ancient
no recent maps
Nuke95 ban100%1-0n/a0g
Four Magic on Nuke
W
Crashers13–38mo ago95 Vikings on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2FOU pick50%1-10%0-1
95 Vikings on Dust2
L
Fortress7–134mo agoAnubis95 pick0%0-10%0-1
Four Magic on Anubis
L
Imperial5–137mo ago95 Vikings on Anubis
L
STATE4–134mo agoMirageFOU ban0%0-2n/a0g
95 Vikings on Mirage
no recent maps
Inferno95 ban33%1-2n/a0g
95 Vikings on Inferno
no recent maps
Cachedecidern/a0gn/a0g
Four Magic on Cache
no recent maps
95 Vikings on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Four Magic Ancient · 95 Vikings Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Four Magic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/4 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 1 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs VascoOverpassfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/8 (13%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 1 (13%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LPDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VascoOverpassfrom 3 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LPDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi17% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT17% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs VascoInferno19-16
95 Vikings
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/4 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini8.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample