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Predictions / Mindfreak vs Rooster · match preview
Mindfreak vs Rooster: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2
Mindfreak
World #184 · 25-26
VS
2026-09-23 09:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
Rooster
World #160 · 30-21
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
42%58%
The call
Rooster are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Mindfreak. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Rooster, form slightly favours Rooster, firepower clearly favours Rooster, head-to-head slightly favours Mindfreak.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MindfreakpullRooster
Team strength1472
153363/37 ROO
Track record25–26
30–2154/46 ROO
Recent formLLWLL
LWLWL61/39 ROO
Roster rating1
1.0987/13 ROO
Head-to-head7 maps
5 maps57/43 MIN
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (120 maps of Mindfreak, 114 of Rooster). Head-to-head they've met 5 times: Mindfreak leads 3–2.
Bottom line: Rooster to beat Mindfreak, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMindfreak · avg 1 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Rooster · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Mindfreak
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents1mo ago
Mindfreak2 : 1
Rooster!2mo ago Mindfreak2 : 0 Rooster!6mo ago Mindfreak0 : 2 Rooster!8mo ago Mindfreak1 : 2 Rooster!8mo ago Mindfreak2 : 0 Rooster!
Mindfreak2 : 1 Rooster!⚠ Different lineup
Mindfreak
outzune
inBay
Rooster
outJD
indamyo
Mindfreak2 : 0 Rooster!⚠ Different lineup
Mindfreak
outzune
inlawlkay
Rooster
outju1ces
indamyo
Mindfreak0 : 2 Rooster!⚠ Different lineup
Mindfreak
outCrunchy, dpr, sliimey, tucks, zune
inBay, kairo, lawlkay, phoebe, void
Rooster
outju1ces
indamyo
Mindfreak1 : 2 Rooster!⚠ Different lineup
Mindfreak
outCrunchy, Texta, dpr, sliimey, zune
inBay, kairo, lawlkay, phoebe, void
Rooster
outju1ces, viridian
inADK, damyo
Mindfreak2 : 0 Rooster!⚠ Different lineup
Mindfreak
outCrunchy, Texta, dpr, sliimey, zune
inBay, kairo, lawlkay, phoebe, void
Rooster
outju1ces, viridian
inADK, damyo
Ground Zero#1197-166-17
Mindfreak vs Ground Zero
Aug 12LInferno6-13Dust26-13Aug 10LNuke10-13Anubis4-13Jul 18LInferno13-9Anubis9-13Nuke7-13+6 earlier meetings
Rooster vs Ground Zero
Aug 28LAnubis4-13Nuke15-19Jun 18WNuke2-13Anubis13-11Mirage13-11Jun 16LMirage10-13Dust213-16+7 earlier meetings
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#1213-110-6
Mindfreak vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Aug 28LInferno8-13Anubis5-13Jul 17LInferno5-13Mar 14LAnubis10-13Inferno5-13+4 earlier meetings
Rooster vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Jul 17LAnubis4-13Nuke0-13Feb 8LOverpass6-13Nuke10-13Jan 31LAnubis4-13Nuke1-13
Abyssal#14510-48-5
Mindfreak vs Abyssal
Jul 17WMirage6-13Inferno13-9Nuke13-6Apr 5LOverpass10-13Inferno16-13Nuke2-13Mar 16WOverpass19-17+3 earlier meetings
Rooster vs Abyssal
Aug 10LMirage2-13Dust26-13Jul 17WInferno13-2Jun 9WOverpass6-13Nuke13-7Mirage13-11+3 earlier meetings
Finishers#1792-12-0
Mindfreak vs Finishers
Aug 4WMirage13-4Nuke10-13Inferno16-13Rooster vs Finishers
Aug 3WDust213-4Anubis13-0
Arcade#1979-87-3
Mindfreak vs Arcade
Aug 29LNuke9-13Mirage13-11Inferno8-13Aug 26WNuke13-5Inferno8-13Mirage13-5Apr 6LNuke18-22Dust213-7Mirage5-13+3 earlier meetings
Rooster vs Arcade
Aug 30LNuke13-7Inferno3-13Mirage5-13Apr 7WDust213-10Nuke11-13Overpass13-10Mar 24WMirage13-8Overpass16-12+1 earlier meeting
MARMARKandLARRY4-06-1
Time Waves4-06-0
Rooster vs Time Waves
Apr 12WAnubis13-5Dust213-2Mar 16WNuke13-3Dust213-3Mar 12WInferno13-5Overpass13-5
Underground4-12-1
Rooster vs Underground
Feb 7WNuke9-13Overpass13-10Dust213-8Map lab
Rooster60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Rooster 2-1
If the veto goes
Mindfreak 40%how the series ends60% Rooster
25%2-025%
16%2-135%
Mindfreak52%15-15vsRooster48%9-10
50%Win47%
52%CT45%
45%T52%
50%Pistol47%
87%Conv72%
Mindfreak47%4-3vsRooster53%13-9
57%Win59%
44%CT57%
50%T53%
57%Pistol50%
63%Conv77%
Mindfreak31%9-12vsRooster69%11-6
43%Win65%
52%CT54%
54%T48%
57%Pistol44%
96%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MindfreakInfernoRooster
52%CT side45%
45%T side52%
50%Pistol47%
87%After win72%
27%After loss5%
MindfreakDust2Rooster
44%CT side57%
50%T side53%
57%Pistol50%
63%After win77%
17%After loss18%
MindfreakAnubisRooster
52%CT side54%
54%T side48%
57%Pistol44%
96%After win100%
22%After loss0%
Pistol rounds53% · 47% · Mindfreak win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 81% · Mindfreak keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 8% · Mindfreak fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Mindfreak vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMINROO
AncientMIN ban33%1-2n/a0g
Rooster on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageROO ban56%10-860%9-6
InfernoMIN pick50%15-1547%9-10
Dust2ROO pick57%4-359%13-9
CacheMIN bann/a0g100%1-0
Mindfreak on Cache
no recent maps
Rooster on Cache
W
FURY13–92mo agoNukeROO ban48%12-1330%7-16
Anubisdecider43%9-1265%11-6
Each team's usual first ban: Mindfreak Ancient · Rooster Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Mindfreak
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/58 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 58 maps they won, 15 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs MARKandLARRYDust2from 7 downvs RoosterNukefrom 6 downvs MARKandLARRYNukefrom 6 downvs Ground ZeroInfernofrom 4 downvs AbyssalInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/59 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 19 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AbyssalMirageled 7 · lost 6-13vs RoosterAnubisled 6 · lost 20-22vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 5 · lost 9-13vs ArcadeInfernoled 5 · lost 9-13vs FURYInfernoled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MARKandLARRYDust2from 7 down · won 19-17
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AbyssalMirageled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs Ground ZeroMirage15-19vs AbyssalOverpass19-17vs ArcadeDust219-16vs MARKandLARRYDust219-17vs RoosterAnubis20-22
Rooster
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/63 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 18 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs ArcadeOverpassfrom 7 downvs MindfreakAnubisfrom 6 downvs AbyssalMiragefrom 6 downvs FURYCachefrom 6 downvs WYDOInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/51 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 51 maps they lost, 16 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MindfreakNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs ArcadeNukeled 5 · lost 11-13vs Ground ZeroDust2led 4 · lost 10-13vs AbyssalOverpassled 4 · lost 6-13vs Ground ZeroMirageled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ArcadeOverpassfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MindfreakNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs Ground ZeroNuke14-16vs ArcadeNuke16-14vs ArcadeOverpass16-13vs ArcadeOverpass16-12vs MindfreakAnubis22-20