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Predictions / Fluxo vs Famalicão · match preview
Fluxo vs Famalicão: CS2 match prediction · LeonBet Masters Season 1
Fluxo
World #59 · 42-36
VS
2026-09-24 08:00 UTC
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
Famalicão
World #136 · 9-28
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
88%12%
The call · high confidence
Fluxo are favoured: our model gives them 88% against Famalicão. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Fluxo, record clearly favours Fluxo, form slightly favours Fluxo, firepower clearly favours Fluxo.
Likely mapsDust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FluxopullFamalicão
Team strength1624
135483/17 FLU
Track record42–36
9–2876/24 FLU
Recent formWLWWL
LWLLL67/33 FLU
Roster rating1.12
1.0398/2 FLU
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 95% our own signal (182 maps of Fluxo, 74 of Famalicão).
Bottom line: Fluxo to beat Famalicão, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFluxo · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Famalicão · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Fluxo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BESTIA#650-60-1
Famalicão vs BESTIA
Mar 13LAncient4-13Map lab
Fluxo75%to win the map · most likely Fluxo 1-0
If the veto goes
Fluxo75%18-14vsFamalicão25%6-16
56%Win27%
52%CT35%
52%T44%
39%Pistol25%
92%Conv82%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FluxoDust2Famalicão
52%CT side35%
52%T side44%
39%Pistol25%
92%After win82%
21%After loss15%
Pistol rounds39% · 25% · Fluxo win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol92% · 82% · Fluxo keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol21% · 15% · Fluxo fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo1, Fluxo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Famalicão habitually bans Mirage, Fluxo's strongest maps (Mirage all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 25/37), not an opponent read, so expect Fluxo to fight the veto for Nuke.
MapFLUFAM
AncientFLU ban18%2-923%3-10
MirageFAM ban62%18-1125%2-6
CacheFLU ban45%5-6100%1-0
NukeFAM ban53%27-24n/a0g
Fluxo on Nuke
WEHISTO BASE13–106d agoL
ShindeN11–136d agoW
DENDELE16–1311d agoWBack to Back13–812d agoLDENDELE3–1313d agoLShindeN1–1314d agoWBack to Back13–419d agoW
ex-MIBR Academy13–624d agoFamalicão on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisFLU ban50%10-1025%2-6
InfernoFAM ban56%15-128%1-11
Each team's usual first ban: Fluxo Overpass · Famalicão Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Fluxo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/95 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 27 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 downvs Keyd StarsNukefrom 8 downvs EHISTO BASENukefrom 7 downvs paiN AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs MarsborneAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/86 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 86 maps they lost, 21 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13vs LPInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs GalorysNukeled 6 · lost 7-13vs GameHuntersMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs ShindeNAncient14-16vs ODDIKAncient18-22vs ODDIKDust222-18vs SAWAnubis22-20vs Keyd StarsNuke13-16
Famalicão
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i7/19 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 7 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs MANAAnubisfrom 7 downvs Falcons ForceDust2from 5 downvs EXSADAncientfrom 4 downvs HYPERSPIRITTrainfrom 3 downvs ALLINNERSAnubisfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/55 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 12 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BERGAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs BERGAncientled 7 · lost 10-13vs EC BANGAInfernoled 5 · lost 10-13vs The Last ResortAnubisled 4 · lost 12-16vs HAVUMirageled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MANAAnubisfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BERGAncientled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini6.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs LiquidInferno16-13vs MANAAnubis16-13vs The Last ResortAnubis12-16vs Falcons ForceDust216-12vs BERGDust216-13