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Predictions / SAW vs Nice Try · match preview
SAW vs Nice Try: CS2 match prediction · LeonBet Masters Season 1
SAW
World #76 · 14-28
VS
2026-09-25 15:00 UTC
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
Nice Try
World #106 · 4-2
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
51%49%
71%
1.33.2Market · 4 books
29%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean SAW at 71%. Record slightly favours Nice Try, form slightly favours Nice Try, firepower clearly favours Nice Try.
Likely mapsInferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SAWpullNice Try
Team strength1490
152154/46 NIC
Track record14–28
4–263/37 NIC
Recent formLLWLW
LWWWL65/35 NIC
Roster rating1.04
1.2292/8 NIC
Bookmakers imply 71% for SAW (1.3 / 3.2); we land 20 points lower at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 72% our own signal (81 maps of SAW, 10 of Nice Try).
Bottom line: SAW to beat Nice Try, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSAW · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Nice Try · avg 1.22 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ta9z★ | 1.51 | 90.7 | 81.2% | 59% | 1.44 |
| fakerealityy | 1.46 | 87.6 | 86.2% | 61% | 1.39 |
| Woro2k | 1.27 | 85.3 | 72.8% | 35% | 1.22 |
| m4d4ra | 0.98 | 69.3 | 72.5% | 57% | 1.03 |
| Ryuzak1 | 0.94 | 68.7 | 77.8% | 62% | 1.02 |
Recent form
SAW
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
WBT#632-22-0
Nice Try vs WBT
Sep 17WInferno13-5Map lab
Nice Try50%to win the map · most likely Nice Try 1-0
If the veto goes
SAW50%12-6vsNice Try50%1-0
67%Win100%
49%CT58%
56%T100%
58%Pistol100%
76%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SAWInfernoNice Try
49%CT side58%
56%T side100%
58%Pistol100%
76%After win50%
33%After loss–
Pistol rounds58% · 100% · Nice Try win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol76% · 50% · SAW keep the momentum more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo1, SAW vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSAWNIC
Dust2SAW ban44%4-5100%1-0
NukeNIC ban36%4-70%0-1
MirageSAW ban30%3-750%2-2
AnubisNIC ban31%4-9n/a0g
SAW on Anubis
L
666610–1311d agoW
EAC13–112mo agoL
DENDELE10–132mo agoLJust Players9–133mo agoL
ASTRAL16–194mo agoL
Enjoy3–134mo agoW
ex-Zero Tenacity13–84mo agoW
Sashi Academy13–36mo agoNice Try on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientSAW ban33%5-10100%1-0
CacheNIC ban67%2-150%1-1
Infernodecider67%12-6100%1-0
Each team's usual first ban: SAW Overpass · Nice Try Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
SAW
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/34 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 34 maps they won, 11 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs LuminosityInfernofrom 6 downvs EnjoyAncientfrom 5 downvs EACAnubisfrom 4 downvs RebelsAncientfrom 3 downvs RebelsNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/45 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 45 maps they lost, 16 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Just PlayersAnubisled 7 · lost 9-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs Ølgod EfterskoleNukeled 5 · lost 11-13vs RebelsDust2led 4 · lost 10-13vs BetBoomMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LuminosityInfernofrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Just PlayersAnubisled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs OramondMirage16-14vs FluxoAnubis20-22vs ROUNDSMirage17-19vs ex-Zero TenacityInferno19-17vs ASTRALAnubis16-19
Nice Try
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/6 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 2 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs WBTInfernofrom 8 downvs FaZe Up NextCachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/4 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 2 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Eternal FireCacheled 5 · lost 13-16vs Eternal FireMirageled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTInfernofrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Eternal FireCacheled 5 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini7.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi20% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT20% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs Eternal FireCache13-16