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Predictions / fnatic vs Just Players · match preview
fnatic vs Just Players: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier
fnatic
World #42 · 45-31
VS
2026-09-24 12:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Just Players
World #112 · 43-40
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
71%29%
81%
1.154.8Market · 22 books
19%The call · high confidence
fnatic are favoured: our model gives them 71% against Just Players. Bookmakers lean fnatic at 81%. Strength clearly favours fnatic, record slightly favours fnatic, firepower clearly favours fnatic.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
fnaticpullJust Players
Team strength1639
153172/28 FNA
Track record45–31
43–4058/42 FNA
Recent formWLLWW
WLLLW56/44 FNA
Roster rating1.16
1.171/29 FNA
Bookmakers imply 81% for fnatic (1.15 / 4.8); we land 10 points lower at 71%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (173 maps of fnatic, 201 of Just Players).
Bottom line: fnatic to beat Just Players, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsfnatic · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Just Players · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sstiNiX★ | 1.11 | 81.8 | 72% | 63% | 1.2 |
| bl1x1 | 1.13 | 76 | 71.9% | 63% | 1.19 |
| sm3t | 1.02 | 77.4 | 70.2% | 58% | 1.09 |
| h1te | 1.06 | 69.7 | 70.3% | 35% | 1.05 |
| Temny Prince | 0.84 | 69.1 | 69.3% | 66% | 0.98 |
Recent form
fnatic
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
K27#393-32-1
Just Players vs K27
Jul 31WNuke13-9Mirage8-13Ancient13-6
GenOne#531-20-4
fnatic vs GenOne
Jan 22LAncient4-13Anubis13-8Dust214-16
Sashi#581-31-2
Just Players vs Sashi
Aug 1LCache5-13Dust213-11Ancient14-16
BET-M#661-20-2
fnatic vs BET-M
Feb 11LAncient8-13Dust213-9Inferno7-13Just Players vs BET-M
Sep 18LAncient11-13Nuke5-13
EAC#754-12-1
Just Players vs EAC
Sep 9WMirage13-11Nuke4-13Anubis13-6
SAW#762-01-2
fnatic vs SAW
Feb 20WAnubis13-4Inferno13-10Just Players vs SAW
Jul 1LAnubis13-9Ancient9-13
OG#782-00-2
fnatic vs OG
Feb 10WInferno13-6Dust213-9Just Players vs OG
May 30LMirage14-16Overpass9-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#832-15-3
fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity
May 18WInferno16-12Anubis7-13Dust216-14Just Players vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 23LMirage13-5Nuke6-13Dust29-13May 26WAnubis16-14Nuke2-13Mirage13-4May 15WMirage13-10Nuke13-6Map lab
fnatic53%to win the Bo3 · most likely fnatic 2-1
If the veto goes
fnatic 53%how the series ends47% Just Players
21%2-028%
31%2-120%
fnatic54%22-12vsJust Players46%8-5
65%Win62%
49%CT48%
56%T54%
53%Pistol58%
94%Conv73%
fnatic40%13-13vsJust Players60%34-22
50%Win61%
56%CT59%
45%T47%
48%Pistol49%
88%Conv84%
fnatic62%15-14vsJust Players38%15-23
52%Win39%
49%CT48%
50%T45%
47%Pistol55%
89%Conv81%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
fnaticAnubisJust Players
49%CT side48%
56%T side54%
53%Pistol58%
94%After win73%
19%After loss9%
fnaticMirageJust Players
56%CT side59%
45%T side47%
48%Pistol49%
88%After win84%
15%After loss19%
fnaticDust2Just Players
49%CT side48%
50%T side45%
47%Pistol55%
89%After win81%
19%After loss18%
Pistol rounds49% · 52% · Just Players win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol91% · 81% · fnatic keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 18% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, fnatic vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Just Players habitually bans Inferno, fnatic's strongest maps (Anubis, Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 73/85), not an opponent read, so expect fnatic to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapFNAJUS
NukeFNA bann/a0g34%11-21
fnatic on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoJUS ban77%17-5n/a0g
fnatic on Inferno
W
Phantom13–5todayW
Ninjas in Pyjamas13–817d agoL
BBL9–1318d agoW
HEROIC13–112mo agoW
Fluxo13–102mo agoW
BASEMENT BOYS13–53mo agoW
FOKUS13–74mo agoW
Rune Eaters13–104mo agoJust Players on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisFNA pick65%22-1262%8-5
MirageJUS pick50%13-1361%34-22
AncientFNA ban56%20-1660%25-17
CacheJUS ban82%9-233%3-6
Dust2decider52%15-1439%15-23
Each team's usual first ban: fnatic Nuke · Just Players Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
fnatic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/102 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 102 maps they won, 40 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 downvs MonteOverpassfrom 7 downvs BRUTEAnubisfrom 7 downvs Virtus.proAnubisfrom 7 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/71 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 71 maps they lost, 26 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs PhantomMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs illwillDust2led 6 · lost 12-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs AstralisMirage16-12vs K27Dust216-13vs ENCEAncient17-19vs MonteOverpass19-16
Just Players
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i43/100 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 43 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs Spirit AcademyMiragefrom 8 downvs SAWAnubisfrom 7 downvs Endless JourneyMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/97 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 97 maps they lost, 31 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs eLITenergyOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs LavkedAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs Lazer CatsAncientled 5 · lost 9-13vs NAVI JuniorMirageled 5 · lost 22-25vs eLITenergyAncientled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs eLITenergyOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs yngodsAnubis16-14vs OlyBetAncient14-16vs SPARTAOverpass22-20vs TrickedMirage16-13vs TrickedNuke13-16