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Predictions / K27 vs CYBERSHOKE · match preview
K27 vs CYBERSHOKE: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier
K27
World #39 · 63-39
VS
2026-09-24 15:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
CYBERSHOKE
World #89 · 40-35
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
69%31%
63%
1.492.5Market · 23 books
37%The call
K27 are favoured: our model gives them 69% against CYBERSHOKE. Bookmakers lean K27 at 63%. Strength slightly favours K27, firepower clearly favours K27, head-to-head slightly favours K27.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
K27pullCYBERSHOKE
Team strength1636
160257/43 K27
Track record63–39
40–3553/47 K27
Recent formLWLWWLWWLL50/50
Roster rating1.13
1.1192/8 K27
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 K27
Bookmakers imply 63% for K27 (1.49 / 2.5); we land 6 points higher at 69%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (248 maps of K27, 166 of CYBERSHOKE). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: K27 leads 1–0.
Bottom line: K27 to beat CYBERSHOKE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsK27 · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
CYBERSHOKE · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
K27
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
magic#182-90-2
K27 vs magic
Sep 2LCache9-13Ancient1-13May 11LMirage9-13Overpass19-22Apr 3LAncient13-9Mirage13-9Dust212-16Overpass11-13Anubis6-13+1 earlier meeting
CYBERSHOKE vs magic
Apr 4LMirage4-13Dust26-13
Inner Circle#222-10-2
K27 vs Inner Circle
Mar 19WAnubis13-9Dust27-13Mirage13-8CYBERSHOKE vs Inner Circle
Feb 11LDust26-13Mirage11-13
BIG#263-30-2
CYBERSHOKE vs BIG
Mar 19LAnubis3-13Overpass7-13
HEROIC#341-50-3
Nemiga#367-31-6
K27 vs Nemiga
Sep 10WAnubis13-10Mirage9-13Nuke13-10Sep 3Wseries2-0Mar 26LOverpass7-13Nuke13-4Anubis7-13+1 earlier meeting
100 Thieves#374-10-2
CYBERSHOKE vs 100 Thieves
Feb 27LAncient8-13Dust211-13
1win#402-44-0
EYEBALLERS#432-02-0
K27 vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 9WMirage13-11Anubis16-14CYBERSHOKE vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 25WDust213-11Mirage13-6Map lab
K2753%to win the Bo3 · most likely K27 2-0
If the veto goes
K27 53%how the series ends47% CYBERSHOKE
34%2-016%
19%2-131%
K2767%32-14vsCYBERSHOKE33%16-15
70%Win52%
60%CT59%
51%T41%
63%Pistol40%
79%Conv76%
K2751%28-22vsCYBERSHOKE49%27-22
56%Win55%
53%CT58%
53%T46%
56%Pistol52%
85%Conv80%
K2738%9-10vsCYBERSHOKE62%3-1
47%Win75%
53%CT56%
49%T46%
58%Pistol75%
86%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
K27MirageCYBERSHOKE
60%CT side59%
51%T side41%
63%Pistol40%
79%After win76%
35%After loss16%
K27Dust2CYBERSHOKE
53%CT side58%
53%T side46%
56%Pistol52%
85%After win80%
18%After loss26%
K27CacheCYBERSHOKE
53%CT side56%
49%T side46%
58%Pistol75%
86%After win83%
31%After loss0%
Pistol rounds59% · 49% · K27 win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 79% · K27 keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol27% · 21% · K27 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, K27 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapK27CYB
InfernoK27 bann/a0gn/a0g
K27 on Inferno
no recent maps
CYBERSHOKE on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisCYB ban61%14-931%4-9
MirageK27 pick70%32-1452%16-15
Dust2CYB pick56%28-2255%27-22
AncientK27 ban61%25-1662%23-14
NukeCYB ban51%23-2255%11-9
Cachedecider47%9-1075%3-1
Each team's usual first ban: K27 Inferno · CYBERSHOKE Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
K27
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i46/139 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 139 maps they won, 46 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs ARCREDDust2from 9 downvs WildcardDust2from 7 downvs WHITEBIRDNukefrom 6 downvs Inner CircleAnubisfrom 6 downvs AcendAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i40/107 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 107 maps they lost, 40 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13vs WWMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireAncientled 8 · lost 10-13vs 1winOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs INFINITENukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ARCREDDust2from 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs 9INEAncient16-12vs WATERMELONAncient22-20vs ARCREDDust216-13vs NemigaAnubis16-12vs MOUZ NXTAnubis31-29
CYBERSHOKE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/88 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 88 maps they won, 25 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs ButterflyAncientfrom 9 downvs PhantomDust2from 7 downvs Black PhoenixDust2from 7 downvs ARCREDNukefrom 7 downvs ENCEDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/76 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 23 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMOverpassled 9 · lost 12-16vs Virtus.proDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs ASTRALDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs Black PhoenixCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs NemigaAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ButterflyAncientfrom 9 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMOverpassled 9 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs ENCEDust216-13vs HEROICDust213-16vs PhantomDust228-26vs MOUZ NXTAncient16-13vs AcendAncient19-17