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Predictions / FORZE Reload vs Just Players · match preview
FORZE Reload vs Just Players: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
FORZE Reload
World #80 · 36-29
VS
2026-10-22 11:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · Best of 3
Just Players
World #117 · 53-46
NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · Best of 3
70%30%
70%
1.323.1Market · 6 books
30%The call
FORZE Reload are favoured: our model gives them 70% against Just Players. Bookmakers lean FORZE Reload at 70%. Strength slightly favours FORZE Reload, form slightly favours FORZE Reload, firepower clearly favours FORZE Reload.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FORZE ReloadpullJust Players
Team strength1634
156165/35 FOR
Track record36–29
53–4653/47 FOR
Recent formLWWWL
WLLLW58/42 FOR
Roster rating1.15
1.0889/11 FOR
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 70% for FORZE Reload (1.32 / 3.1) and we land at 70%, the same read. This read is 97% our own signal (150 maps of FORZE Reload, 235 of Just Players).
Bottom line: FORZE Reload to beat Just Players, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFORZE Reload · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HeCkBNk★ | 1.22 | 77.7 | 76.1% | 63% | 1.25 |
| YumsaN | 1.26 | 74.9 | 75.7% | 33% | 1.22 |
| KusMe | 1.01 | 74.3 | 72.7% | 55% | 1.12 |
| Lack1 | 1.02 | 71.8 | 71.3% | 57% | 1.09 |
| NickelBack | 0.88 | 74.9 | 78.9% | 42% | 1.09 |
Just Players · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sstiNiX★ | 1.12 | 82.7 | 72.7% | 62% | 1.22 |
| sm3t | 1.02 | 77.8 | 70.2% | 59% | 1.1 |
| h1te | 1.06 | 69.2 | 69.8% | 34% | 1.05 |
| Temny Prince | 0.9 | 71.1 | 70.7% | 63% | 1.03 |
| wh1teout | 0.95 | 66.6 | 72.8% | 59% | 1 |
Recent form
FORZE Reload
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemiga#240-20-4
FORZE Reload vs Nemiga
Aug 22LNuke11-13Anubis9-13
K27#460-22-1
FORZE Reload vs K27
Mar 3LAncient9-13Dust24-13Just Players vs K27
Jul 31WNuke13-9Mirage8-13Ancient13-6
Nuclear TigeRES#502-00-3
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
Aug 24WDust213-9Anubis13-3
Black Phoenix#552-24-2
ex-Zero Tenacity#673-25-5
Just Players vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Oct 15LMirage7-13Cache4-13Aug 23LMirage13-5Nuke6-13Dust29-13May 26WAnubis16-14Nuke2-13Mirage13-4+1 earlier meeting
ex-RUSTEC#704-01-6
Just Players vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 28LMirage13-11Dust26-13Anubis8-13Jul 25LDust25-13Mirage14-16Jul 21LMirage10-13Dust210-13
UPGRADE#742-41-2
Just Players vs UPGRADE
Sep 22LAncient5-13Nuke16-13Anubis4-13
BET-M#792-20-4
Map lab
Just Players55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Just Players 2-1
If the veto goes
FORZE Reload 45%how the series ends55% Just Players
24%2-022%
21%2-134%
FORZE Reload66%21-13vsJust Players34%18-23
62%Win44%
55%CT49%
50%T45%
56%Pistol57%
89%Conv83%
FORZE Reload36%13-15vsJust Players64%40-25
46%Win62%
49%CT59%
48%T48%
45%Pistol53%
88%Conv86%
FORZE Reload38%13-14vsJust Players62%31-20
48%Win61%
48%CT57%
50%T51%
44%Pistol46%
79%Conv91%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FORZE ReloadDust2Just Players
55%CT side49%
50%T side45%
56%Pistol57%
89%After win83%
21%After loss20%
FORZE ReloadMirageJust Players
49%CT side59%
48%T side48%
45%Pistol53%
88%After win86%
19%After loss18%
FORZE ReloadAncientJust Players
48%CT side57%
50%T side51%
44%Pistol46%
79%After win91%
13%After loss29%
Pistol rounds49% · 52% · Just Players win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 87% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 23% · Just Players fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FORZE Reload vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFORJUS
InfernoFOR ban0%0-1n/a0g
FORZE Reload on Inferno
LBebop8–138mo agoJust Players on Inferno
no recent maps
CacheJUS ban83%10-226%5-14
Dust2FOR pick62%21-1344%18-23
MirageJUS pick46%13-1562%40-25
AnubisFOR ban62%8-564%9-5
NukeJUS ban61%14-935%12-22
Ancientdecider48%13-1461%31-20
Each team's usual first ban: FORZE Reload Inferno · Just Players Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FORZE Reload
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/81 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 81 maps they won, 29 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs WHITEBIRDAncientfrom 7 downvs FAVBETAnubisfrom 6 downvs UPGRADEDust2from 6 downvs ARCREDNukefrom 5 downvs MASONICAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/69 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 69 maps they lost, 28 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UPGRADEAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13vs ex-Zero TenacityNukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs UrsaMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs NemigaNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs ColorDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WHITEBIRDAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UPGRADEAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs MASONICTrain13-16vs STATENuke16-12vs ARCREDNuke19-17vs los kogutosAnubis16-14vs MASONICAncient28-26
Just Players
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i50/119 (42%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 119 maps they won, 50 (42%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 42% of their wins were comebacks, not 42% of all games.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs Spirit AcademyMiragefrom 8 downvs HYPERSPIRITAncientfrom 8 downvs SAWAnubisfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i38/112 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 112 maps they lost, 38 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FOKUSAncientled 11 · lost 2-13vs eLITenergyOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs LavkedAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs BET-MAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs LeoCacheled 6 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FOKUSAncientled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs yngodsAnubis16-14vs OlyBetAncient14-16vs SPARTAOverpass22-20vs TrickedMirage16-13vs TrickedNuke13-16