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Predictions / Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity · match preview
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
COL
Color
World #– · 19-9
VS
2026-10-25 18:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · Best of 3
ex-Zero Tenacity
World #67 · 74-68
NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · Best of 3
61%39%
63%
1.452.48Market · 1 books
37%The call
Color are favoured: our model gives them 61% against ex-Zero Tenacity. Bookmakers lean Color at 63%. Strength slightly favours Color, record slightly favours Color, firepower slightly favours Color.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Colorpullex-Zero Tenacity
Team strength1656
161758/42 COL
Track record19–9
74–6860/40 COL
Recent formLWWWW
LWWLW55/45 COL
Roster rating1.16
1.1358/42 COL
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 63% for Color (1.45 / 2.48) and we land at 61%, the same read. This read is 94% our own signal (66 maps of Color, 345 of ex-Zero Tenacity).
Bottom line: Color to beat ex-Zero Tenacity, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsColor · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-Zero Tenacity · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Color
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#381-21-2
Color vs HOTU
Sep 1LDust213-10Cache7-13Anubis22-25ex-Zero Tenacity vs HOTU
Mar 11LDust28-13Mirage13-9Overpass9-13
Nemesis#470-21-2
Color vs Nemesis
Aug 22LDust211-13Inferno4-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nemesis
Mar 17LInferno13-9Nuke9-13Mirage8-13
Nuclear TigeRES#501-21-4
Color vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 1LDust213-9Inferno2-13Ancient8-13
Metizport#591-21-2
Color vs Metizport
Aug 20LMirage11-13Inferno13-8Cache11-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs Metizport
Sep 13LCache6-13Nuke16-14Inferno9-13
FORZE Reload#802-02-3
Color vs FORZE Reload
Aug 29WMirage13-10Dust213-10
INOX Division#842-06-8
Color vs INOX Division
Sep 13WInferno13-4Dust216-14ex-Zero Tenacity vs INOX Division
Sep 21WCache13-8Nuke13-11Sep 5LNuke8-13Cache13-3Dust26-13Aug 30LCache7-13Nuke5-13+3 earlier meetings
Inner Circle Academy#872-00-2
Color vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 21WDust213-4Anubis13-9ex-Zero Tenacity vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 17LAnubis7-13Nuke8-13
Butterfly#1142-02-0
Color vs Butterfly
Aug 25WAncient13-2Dust213-11ex-Zero Tenacity vs Butterfly
Oct 2WInferno13-11Mirage13-2Map lab
Color71%to win the Bo3 · most likely Color 2-1
If the veto goes
Color 71%how the series ends29% ex-Zero Tenacity
28%2-021%
44%2-18%
Color63%14-6vsex-Zero Tenacity37%43-34
70%Win56%
54%CT51%
57%T54%
50%Pistol54%
95%Conv81%
Color44%4-3vsex-Zero Tenacity56%36-22
57%Win62%
60%CT55%
42%T53%
50%Pistol59%
57%Conv85%
Color85%11-2vsex-Zero Tenacity15%21-30
85%Win41%
54%CT49%
55%T43%
50%Pistol40%
92%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ColorDust2ex-Zero Tenacity
54%CT side51%
57%T side54%
50%Pistol54%
95%After win81%
20%After loss17%
ColorInfernoex-Zero Tenacity
60%CT side55%
42%T side53%
50%Pistol59%
57%After win85%
57%After loss27%
ColorMirageex-Zero Tenacity
54%CT side49%
55%T side43%
50%Pistol40%
92%After win78%
31%After loss18%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol88% · 82% · Color keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol30% · 20% · Color fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Color vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
ex-Zero Tenacity habitually bans Ancient, Color's strongest maps (Dust2, Anubis, Mirage, Ancient all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 141/144), not an opponent read, so expect Color to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapCOLEX-
NukeCOL bann/a0g52%36-33
Color on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientEX- ban60%6-4n/a0g
Color on Ancient
L
Nemiga10–1326d agoW
Sashi13–41mo agoL
B810–132mo agoLNuclear TigeRES8–132mo agoWButterfly13–22mo agoW
CYBERSHOKE Prospects13–52mo agoW
EAC13–82mo agoW
SPARTA13–92mo agoex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
Dust2COL pick70%14-656%43-34
InfernoEX- pick57%4-362%36-22
CacheCOL ban25%2-672%23-9
AnubisEX- ban63%5-350%13-13
Miragedecider85%11-241%21-30
Each team's usual first ban: Color Nuke · ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Color
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/42 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 42 maps they won, 10 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 downvs FORZE ReloadDust2from 6 downvs WWMiragefrom 5 downvs The Last ResortAncientfrom 4 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/24 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 24 maps they lost, 7 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTADust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs SPARTADust2led 5 · lost 19-22vs SPARTAMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs B8Ancientled 5 · lost 10-13vs MetizportCacheled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTADust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs SPARTADust219-22vs The Last ResortAncient16-13vs HOTUAnubis22-25vs EACAnubis14-16vs INOX DivisionDust216-14
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i55/178 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 178 maps they won, 55 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs BIG AcademyCachefrom 8 downvs Nuclear TigeRESInfernofrom 8 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i54/159 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 159 maps they lost, 54 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs FOKUSCacheled 8 · lost 13-16vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16