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Predictions / EAC vs BOJONG · match preview
EAC vs BOJONG: CS2 match prediction · Elisa BreakOut Series 2
EAC
World #76 · 29-34
VS
2026-10-15 14:00 UTC
Elisa BreakOut Series 2 · Best of 1
BOJONG
World #219 · 1-8
Elisa BreakOut Series 2 · Best of 1
73%27%
77%
1.194.02Market · 1 books
23%The call · high confidence
EAC are favoured: our model gives them 73% against BOJONG. Bookmakers lean EAC at 77%. Strength slightly favours EAC, record clearly favours EAC, form slightly favours BOJONG, firepower clearly favours EAC.
Likely mapsMirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
EACpullBOJONG
Team strength1511
143361/39 EAC
Track record29–34
1–876/24 EAC
Recent formLLLWL
WLLLL64/36 BOJ
Roster rating1.1
0.9891/9 EAC
Bookmakers imply 77% for EAC (1.19 / 4.02); we land 4 points lower at 73%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 80% our own signal (147 maps of EAC, 16 of BOJONG).
Bottom line: EAC to beat BOJONG, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsEAC · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BOJONG · avg 0.98 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
EAC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
EAC61%to win the map · most likely EAC 1-0
If the veto goes
EAC61%18-18vsBOJONG39%1-3
50%Win25%
49%CT54%
53%T37%
53%Pistol50%
84%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
EACMirageBOJONG
49%CT side54%
53%T side37%
53%Pistol50%
84%After win75%
24%After loss0%
Pistol rounds53% · 50% · EAC win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 75% · EAC keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 0% · EAC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo1, EAC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEACBOJ
Dust2EAC ban0%0-1n/a0g
EAC on Dust2
L
Betclic8–134mo agoBOJONG on Dust2
no recent maps
AnubisBOJ ban39%7-110%0-1
InfernoEAC ban20%3-120%0-2
CacheBOJ ban73%8-30%0-1
AncientEAC ban52%13-1267%2-1
NukeBOJ ban42%11-150%0-3
Each team's usual first ban: EAC Dust2 · BOJONG Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
EAC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/65 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 23 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs ex-MANAMiragefrom 8 downvs BASEMENT BOYSAncientfrom 7 downvs HashirasOverpassfrom 6 downvs ex-MANAAncientfrom 6 downvs BASEMENT BOYSNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/76 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 27 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs magicAncientled 8 · lost 7-13vs fnaticCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs ALGONukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs magicMirageled 5 · lost 6-13vs OGMirageled 5 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-MANAMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs magicAncientled 8 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs megoshortAncient14-16vs Rune EatersAncient12-16vs HashirasOverpass16-12vs Noir VerseMirage16-14vs MetizportNuke26-28
BOJONG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/3 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 2 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs Fire FluxAncientfrom 5 downvs MADMANMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/11 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 11 maps they lost, 4 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Fire FluxAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs CSDIILITMirageled 4 · lost 10-13vs KUUSAMOMirageled 3 · lost 5-13vs LFO 7Ancientled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Fire FluxAncientfrom 5 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Fire FluxAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs ENCEMirage12-16vs Fire FluxInferno13-16