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Predictions / Inner Circle Academy vs Spirit Academy · match preview
Inner Circle Academy vs Spirit Academy: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 12
Inner Circle Academy
World #87 · 41-35
VS
2026-10-23 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
Spirit Academy
World #111 · 28-16
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
49%51%
48%
1.911.78Market · 1 books
52%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 49–51. Bookmakers lean Spirit Academy at 52%. Form slightly favours Spirit Academy, firepower slightly favours Spirit Academy.
Likely mapsAnubis · Ancient · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Inner Circle AcademypullSpirit Academy
Team strength1563
158956/44 SPI
Track record41–35
28–1654/46 SPI
Recent formWLLWL
WWWLW62/38 SPI
Roster rating1.13
1.1164/36 SPI
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 48% for Inner Circle Academy (1.91 / 1.78) and we land at 49%, the same read. This read is 96% our own signal (175 maps of Inner Circle Academy, 98 of Spirit Academy).
Bottom line: Spirit Academy to beat Inner Circle Academy, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsInner Circle Academy · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Spirit Academy · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Inner Circle Academy
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ex-RUSTEC#704-00-2
Spirit Academy vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 30LCache6-13Dust213-16
INOX Division#841-20-2
Inner Circle Academy vs INOX Division
Jul 23LAnubis13-10Nuke5-13Ancient4-13Spirit Academy vs INOX Division
Oct 1LNuke6-13Cache12-16
Leo#881-20-2
Inner Circle Academy vs Leo
Aug 3LDust216-12Nuke6-13Ancient6-13Spirit Academy vs Leo
Sep 23LCache10-13Nuke1-13
aimclub#943-24-0
Fire Flux#964-22-1
Inner Circle Academy vs Fire Flux
Sep 10WNuke13-9Cache11-13Dust213-11Aug 31WCache17-19Nuke13-2Dust216-14Spirit Academy vs Fire Flux
Oct 3WNuke13-6Anubis20-22Dust213-10
Bushido Wildcats#1131-20-2
Inner Circle Academy vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 17LMirage9-13Anubis13-6Spirit Academy vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 5LNuke4-13Dust27-13JUSJust Players#1170-43-5
Spirit Academy vs Just Players
Sep 19LNuke10-13Mirage14-16Aug 29WNuke10-13Mirage13-6Ancient13-11Jul 17LDust213-16Ancient13-7Mirage1-13
DONSTU#1642-02-0
Inner Circle Academy vs DONSTU
Jul 14WAnubis13-5Dust216-14Spirit Academy vs DONSTU
Aug 29WAnubis13-11Ancient13-8Map lab
Spirit Academy67%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit Academy 2-0
If the veto goes
Inner Circle Academy 33%how the series ends67% Spirit Academy
14%2-038%
20%2-129%
Inner Circle Academy46%19-13vsSpirit Academy54%4-2
59%Win67%
46%CT63%
60%T50%
52%Pistol40%
88%Conv100%
Inner Circle Academy30%17-17vsSpirit Academy70%13-5
50%Win72%
50%CT58%
51%T51%
54%Pistol44%
84%Conv88%
Inner Circle Academy41%12-14vsSpirit Academy59%13-10
46%Win57%
53%CT56%
45%T38%
48%Pistol52%
76%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Inner Circle AcademyAnubisSpirit Academy
46%CT side63%
60%T side50%
52%Pistol40%
88%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Inner Circle AcademyAncientSpirit Academy
50%CT side58%
51%T side51%
54%Pistol44%
84%After win88%
32%After loss25%
Inner Circle AcademyNukeSpirit Academy
53%CT side56%
45%T side38%
48%Pistol52%
76%After win78%
7%After loss24%
Pistol rounds52% · 48% · Inner Circle Academy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 84% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol13% · 21% · Spirit Academy fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Inner Circle Academy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINNSPI
InfernoINN ban33%1-2n/a0g
Spirit Academy on Inferno
no recent maps
MirageSPI ban57%12-947%8-9
AnubisINN pick59%19-1367%4-2
AncientSPI pick50%17-1772%13-5
CacheINN ban50%5-547%7-8
Dust2SPI ban60%24-1663%10-6
Nukedecider46%12-1457%13-10
Each team's usual first ban: Inner Circle Academy Inferno · Spirit Academy Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Inner Circle Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/96 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 96 maps they won, 31 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs aimclubAnubisfrom 11 downvs HAVUAncientfrom 10 downvs bond1eDust2from 8 downvs SAWAncientfrom 7 downvs MASONICAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/78 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 78 maps they lost, 24 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FortressAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13vs SangalAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs WBTAnubisled 5 · lost 11-13vs magicOverpassled 5 · lost 9-13vs NEW VISIONDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs aimclubAnubisfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FortressAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs rottweilersOverpass16-12vs bond1eDust216-12vs MASONICAnubis16-13vs BASEMENT BOYSDust217-19vs MisaDust219-15
Spirit Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/56 (45%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 56 maps they won, 25 (45%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 45% of their wins were comebacks, not 45% of all games.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 downvs aimclubDust2from 7 downvs MAYBENukefrom 7 downvs Fire FluxNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/40 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 40 maps they lost, 18 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 14-16vs INOX DivisionNukeled 7 · lost 6-13vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs Noir VerseCacheled 5 · lost 12-16vs FORZE ReloadMirageled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs BetclicNuke19-17vs Just PlayersDust213-16vs Young TigeRESDust225-22vs Nuclear TigeRESCache13-16vs ex-RUSTECDust213-16