FORZE Reload are favoured: our model gives them 79% against LFO 10. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours FORZE Reload, record clearly favours FORZE Reload, form slightly favours FORZE Reload, firepower clearly favours FORZE Reload, head-to-head clearly favours FORZE Reload.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FORZE ReloadpullLFO 10
Team strength1634
145882/18 FOR
Track record36–29
2–570/30 FOR
Recent formLWWWL
WLLLL61/39 FOR
Roster rating1.15
1.1195/5 FOR
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 FOR
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 80% our own signal (150 maps of FORZE Reload, 16 of LFO 10). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: FORZE Reload leads 1–0.
Bottom line: FORZE Reload to beat LFO 10, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings
FORZE Reload · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
LFO 10 · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.21iStar gap: the best player rates 0.21 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FORZE Reload69%to win the Bo3 · most likely FORZE Reload 2-0
If the veto goes
FORZE Reload 69%how the series ends31% LFO 10
40%2-013%
28%2-118%
Map 1Dust2FORZE Reload pick
FORZE Reload68%21-13vsLFO 1032%0-3
62%Win0%
55%CT47%
50%T13%
56%Pistol17%
89%Conv100%
Map 2MirageLFO 10 pick
FORZE Reload59%13-15vsLFO 1041%2-4
46%Win33%
49%CT55%
48%T42%
45%Pistol58%
88%Conv86%
Map 3Cachedecider
FORZE Reload60%10-2vsLFO 1040%2-1
83%Win67%
64%CT50%
57%T67%
63%Pistol67%
93%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FORZE ReloadDust2LFO 10
55%CT side47%
50%T side13%
56%Pistol17%
89%After win100%
21%After loss20%
FORZE ReloadMirageLFO 10
49%CT side55%
48%T side42%
45%Pistol58%
88%After win86%
19%After loss20%
FORZE ReloadCacheLFO 10
64%CT side50%
57%T side67%
63%Pistol67%
93%After win100%
56%After loss0%
Pistol rounds53% · 50% · FORZE Reload win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol90% · 92% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol25% · 17% · FORZE Reload fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FORZE Reload vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
LFO 10 habitually bans Nuke, FORZE Reload's strongest maps (Nuke, Dust2, Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 6/7), not an opponent read, so expect FORZE Reload to fight the veto for Ancient.
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/5 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 2 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs BAKSCachefrom 6 downvs MOUZ NXTMiragefrom 3 down