Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / JiJieHao vs Nexus · match preview
JiJieHao vs Nexus: CS2 match prediction · Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7
JiJieHao
World #44 · 41-23
VS
2026-10-22 13:00 UTC
Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · Best of 3
Nexus
World #146 · 28-27
Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · Best of 3
58%42%
58%
1.612.21Market · 11 books
42%The call
JiJieHao are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Nexus. Bookmakers lean JiJieHao at 58%. Strength slightly favours JiJieHao, form slightly favours Nexus, firepower clearly favours Nexus.
Likely mapsMirage · Anubis · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
JiJieHaopullNexus
Team strength1612
157259/41 JIJ
Track record41–23
28–2755/45 JIJ
Recent formLWWLW
WWLWW58/42 NEX
Roster rating1.12
1.1176/24 NEX
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 58% for JiJieHao (1.61 / 2.21) and we land at 58%, the same read. This read is 96% our own signal (134 maps of JiJieHao, 124 of Nexus).
Bottom line: JiJieHao to beat Nexus, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsJiJieHao · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Nexus · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
JiJieHao
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Black Phoenix#551-22-3
JiJieHao vs Black Phoenix
Jul 31LMirage13-7Dust29-13Cache10-13
Betclic#582-01-2
JiJieHao vs Betclic
Sep 24WMirage13-9Anubis13-10Nexus vs Betclic
Feb 26LOverpass13-8Anubis11-13Ancient11-13
Metizport#592-10-2
JiJieHao vs Metizport
Mar 3WInferno13-5Ancient11-13Dust213-7Nexus vs Metizport
Jun 13LOverpass0-13Inferno3-13
FlyQuest#612-40-2
Nexus vs FlyQuest
Feb 26LMirage6-13Anubis9-13
Phantom#682-30-2
Nexus vs Phantom
Feb 14LOverpass8-13Ancient11-13
BASEMENT BOYS#932-02-2
JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS
May 24WAnubis13-2Inferno16-12
OG#1260-30-1
Nexus vs OG
Mar 13LAncient4-13
Entropy2-02-0
JiJieHao vs Entropy
Jul 30WAncient28-26Cache13-8Nexus vs Entropy
Sep 19WMirage13-11Anubis13-10Map lab
JiJieHao60%to win the Bo3 · most likely JiJieHao 2-0
If the veto goes
JiJieHao 60%how the series ends40% Nexus
31%2-020%
29%2-120%
JiJieHao53%16-8vsNexus47%9-5
67%Win64%
57%CT67%
55%T46%
54%Pistol79%
92%Conv77%
JiJieHao58%11-7vsNexus42%13-12
61%Win52%
58%CT48%
46%T55%
56%Pistol40%
75%Conv100%
JiJieHao59%13-7vsNexus41%10-8
65%Win56%
58%CT47%
51%T50%
60%Pistol50%
79%Conv67%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
JiJieHaoMirageNexus
57%CT side67%
55%T side46%
54%Pistol79%
92%After win77%
9%After loss17%
JiJieHaoAnubisNexus
58%CT side48%
46%T side55%
56%Pistol40%
75%After win100%
31%After loss30%
JiJieHaoInfernoNexus
58%CT side47%
51%T side50%
60%Pistol50%
79%After win67%
19%After loss6%
Pistol rounds56% · 53% · JiJieHao win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol19% · 20% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, JiJieHao vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapJIJNEX
NukeJIJ ban0%0-10%0-1
JiJieHao on Nuke
LFlyQuest3–135mo agoNexus on Nuke
LJam10–133mo agoAncientNEX ban57%17-1348%10-11
MirageJIJ pick67%16-864%9-5
AnubisNEX pick61%11-752%13-12
CacheJIJ ban40%4-655%6-5
Dust2NEX ban46%12-1440%10-15
Infernodecider65%13-756%10-8
Each team's usual first ban: JiJieHao Nuke · Nexus Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
JiJieHao
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/75 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 75 maps they won, 23 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs 100 ThievesCachefrom 8 downvs DENDELEInfernofrom 7 downvs Rare AtomMiragefrom 6 downvs ENCEOverpassfrom 6 downvs BASEMENT BOYSInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/59 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 23 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 100 ThievesDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs GamerLegionAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs Eternal FireAnubisled 7 · lost 7-13vs SINNERSDust2led 7 · lost 19-22vs FOKUSAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 100 ThievesCachefrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 100 ThievesDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs FlyQuestAncient13-16vs Falcons ForceInferno22-20vs BET-MDust219-15vs SINNERSAncient14-16vs Chinggis WarriorsAncient16-13
Nexus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/62 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 62 maps they won, 16 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs BASEMENT BOYSMiragefrom 10 downvs PUREInfernofrom 5 downvs AllianceAnubisfrom 5 downvs BC.GameCachefrom 5 downvs PUREAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/61 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 61 maps they lost, 21 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SAWInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs Bushido WildcatsInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs kONODust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BASEMENT BOYSMiragefrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SAWInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAncient15-19vs AllianceInferno16-14vs aimclubInferno16-14vs Inner CircleAncient14-16vs PUREMirage12-16