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Predictions / Aurora vs The MongolZ · match preview
Aurora vs The MongolZ: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Aurora
World #5 · 46-30
VS
2026-10-24 07:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
The MongolZ
World #20 · 29-25
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
75%25%
74%
1.253.5Market · 6 books
26%The call · high confidence
Aurora are favoured: our model gives them 75% against The MongolZ. Bookmakers lean Aurora at 74%. Strength clearly favours Aurora, firepower clearly favours Aurora, head-to-head slightly favours Aurora.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AurorapullThe MongolZ
Team strength1732
162871/29 AUR
Track record46–30
29–2556/44 AUR
Recent formWLWWL
WWLWL52/48 THE
Roster rating1.12
1.0578/22 AUR
Head-to-head4 maps
2 maps63/37 AUR
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 74% for Aurora (1.25 / 3.5) and we land at 75%, the same read. This read is 96% our own signal (179 maps of Aurora, 125 of The MongolZ). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Aurora leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Aurora to beat The MongolZ, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAurora · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
The MongolZ · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents5mo ago
Aurora2 : 0
The MongolZ!7mo ago Aurora2 : 0 The MongolZ!8mo ago Aurora0 : 2 The MongolZ!
Aurora2 : 0 The MongolZ!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
The MongolZ
outmzinho
innin9
Aurora2 : 0 The MongolZ!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
The MongolZ
outmzinho
innin9
Aurora0 : 2 The MongolZ!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
The MongolZ
outmzinho
innin9
Spirit#13-22-2
Vitality#24-121-6
Aurora vs Vitality
Oct 10LAnubis13-7Cache7-13Mirage8-13Sep 20LAnubis4-13Inferno13-11Mirage4-13Cache7-13Sep 19WAnubis13-7Inferno11-13Nuke13-8+3 earlier meetings
The MongolZ vs Vitality
Mar 21LMirage4-13Overpass13-16Feb 21LMirage13-16Dust23-13Feb 15LMirage13-10Dust24-13Nuke4-13
FURIA#35-93-3
Aurora vs FURIA
Oct 17LDust28-13Inferno10-13Oct 6WDust28-13Mirage13-9Nuke13-9Aug 19LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Mirage9-13+3 earlier meetings
MOUZ#42-62-4
Aurora vs MOUZ
May 15LDust211-13Nuke8-13May 12LDust216-14Dust211-13Nuke15-19Apr 14LDust24-13Mirage8-13+1 earlier meeting
Falcons#64-41-4
Legacy#74-21-2
The MongolZ vs Legacy
May 22LInferno11-13Mirage13-10Nuke10-13
G2#85-42-2
Aurora vs G2
Aug 31LAnubis13-7Inferno16-19Mirage1-13Aug 26LInferno5-13Anubis12-16Jun 13WOverpass13-8Anubis13-7+1 earlier meeting
FUT#101-20-2
Aurora vs FUT
Feb 14LMirage6-13Anubis16-13Overpass6-13The MongolZ vs FUT
Apr 10LNuke10-13Mirage14-16Map lab
Aurora55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Aurora 2-0
If the veto goes
Aurora 55%how the series ends45% The MongolZ
30%2-020%
26%2-124%
Aurora51%23-15vsThe MongolZ49%12-8
61%Win60%
57%CT52%
50%T50%
53%Pistol63%
90%Conv84%
Aurora58%20-14vsThe MongolZ42%17-17
59%Win50%
54%CT60%
45%T41%
53%Pistol56%
78%Conv84%
Aurora52%5-4vsThe MongolZ48%1-1
56%Win50%
50%CT57%
51%T43%
89%Pistol25%
94%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AuroraDust2The MongolZ
57%CT side52%
50%T side50%
53%Pistol63%
90%After win84%
22%After loss20%
AuroraMirageThe MongolZ
54%CT side60%
45%T side41%
53%Pistol56%
78%After win84%
16%After loss30%
AuroraCacheThe MongolZ
50%CT side57%
51%T side43%
89%Pistol25%
94%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds57% · 57% · level, no edge
After a won pistol86% · 84% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol19% · 25% · The MongolZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Aurora vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
The MongolZ habitually bans Anubis, Aurora's strongest maps (Inferno, Dust2, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 51/54), not an opponent read, so expect Aurora to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapAURTHE
AncientAUR ban0%0-252%11-10
AnubisTHE ban67%18-9n/a0g
Aurora on Anubis
LFalcons8–134d agoWSpirit13–611d agoWVitality13–712d agoW
1win13–813d agoW
BETBOOM13–817d agoLVitality4–131mo agoWVitality13–71mo agoWG213–72mo agoThe MongolZ on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2AUR pick61%23-1560%12-8
MirageTHE pick59%20-1450%17-17
NukeAUR ban54%15-1355%11-9
InfernoTHE ban60%15-1055%12-10
Cachedecider56%5-450%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: Aurora Ancient · The MongolZ Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/105 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 105 maps they won, 27 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs NRGCachefrom 7 downvs FURIAMiragefrom 7 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/74 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 33 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs VitalityMirageled 9 · lost 4-13vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs FURIAMirageled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13
The MongolZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/66 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 18 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs magicMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONMiragefrom 7 downvs PRIVATEMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONAncientfrom 6 downvs magicInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/59 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 25 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16vs FURIADust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs FalconsMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs AstralisAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs LiquidMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs magicMiragefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs FURIAInferno12-16vs B8Nuke19-17vs VitalityMirage13-16vs paiNNuke19-17vs VitalityOverpass13-16