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Predictions / BESTIA vs ShindeN · match preview
BESTIA vs ShindeN: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 4
BESTIA
World #76 · 47-30
VS
2026-10-22 14:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 4 · Best of 3
ShindeN
World #52 · 53-31
Circuit X Curitiba Season 4 · Best of 3
64%36%
55%
1.682.08Market · 1 books
45%The call
BESTIA are favoured: our model gives them 64% against ShindeN. Bookmakers lean BESTIA at 55%. Form clearly favours BESTIA, head-to-head clearly favours BESTIA.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BESTIApullShindeN
Team strength1619
160254/46 BES
Track record47–30
53–3153/47 SHI
Recent formLLWWW
LLLLL80/20 BES
Roster rating1.081.1450/50
Head-to-head8 maps
1 maps82/18 BES
Bookmakers imply 55% for BESTIA (1.68 / 2.08); we land 9 points higher at 64%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (156 maps of BESTIA, 192 of ShindeN). Head-to-head they've met 4 times: BESTIA leads 4–0.
Bottom line: BESTIA to beat ShindeN, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBESTIA · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ShindeN · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BESTIA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents1mo ago
BESTIA2 : 0
ShindeN◆ same lineup3mo ago BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN!9mo ago BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN!9mo ago BESTIA2 : 1 ShindeN!
BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN◆ same lineup3mo ago BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outnacho, tomaszin
indrop, kauez
BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outNoktse, tomaszin
indrop, kauez
ShindeN
outnacho
inguty
BESTIA2 : 1 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outNoktse, tomaszin
indrop, kauez
ShindeN
outnacho
inguty
MIBR#120-24-3
9z#150-23-2
BESTIA vs 9z
Mar 5LInferno9-13Dust27-13
Imperial#533-710-8
BESTIA vs Imperial
Sep 19Wseries2-1Aug 15LNuke10-13Inferno13-9Mirage4-13Jul 28LInferno4-13Dust213-16+1 earlier meeting
ShindeN vs Imperial
Sep 1LDust29-13Cache19-16Inferno16-19Aug 28LInferno4-13Cache7-13Jul 30WMirage16-14Nuke9-13Inferno13-9+4 earlier meetings
Fluxo#606-010-12
ShindeN vs Fluxo
Sep 20LInferno6-13Mirage9-13Sep 17WInferno13-8Mirage8-13Nuke13-11Sep 12LMirage5-13Inferno13-10Cache3-13+6 earlier meetings
Galorys#693-52-4
Bounty Hunters#824-12-6
ShindeN vs Bounty Hunters
Jul 16LNuke5-13Mirage10-13May 1LAncient13-6Mirage5-13Nuke6-13Apr 2LMirage13-10Nuke4-13Dust29-13
LP#1033-25-3
ALKA#1522-12-0
BESTIA vs ALKA
Aug 15WCache8-13Dust213-8Ancient19-15ShindeN vs ALKA
Aug 25WAncient13-7Dust213-11Map lab
BESTIA52%to win the Bo3 · most likely BESTIA 2-0
If the veto goes
BESTIA 52%how the series ends48% ShindeN
30%2-019%
21%2-129%
BESTIA62%18-12vsShindeN38%15-17
60%Win47%
56%CT50%
52%T49%
63%Pistol50%
82%Conv75%
BESTIA49%12-6vsShindeN51%34-17
67%Win67%
61%CT58%
44%T54%
56%Pistol46%
65%Conv89%
BESTIA42%16-16vsShindeN58%10-7
50%Win59%
54%CT57%
45%T45%
58%Pistol56%
83%Conv68%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BESTIAMirageShindeN
56%CT side50%
52%T side49%
63%Pistol50%
82%After win75%
23%After loss25%
BESTIANukeShindeN
61%CT side58%
44%T side54%
56%Pistol46%
65%After win89%
31%After loss31%
BESTIAAncientShindeN
54%CT side57%
45%T side45%
58%Pistol56%
83%After win68%
30%After loss33%
Pistol rounds59% · 49% · BESTIA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol28% · 29% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BESTIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBESSHI
AnubisBES bann/a0gn/a0g
BESTIA on Anubis
no recent maps
ShindeN on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2SHI ban69%25-1161%22-14
MirageBES pick60%18-1247%15-17
NukeSHI pick67%12-667%34-17
InfernoBES ban41%9-1371%25-10
CacheSHI ban33%3-629%2-5
Ancientdecider50%16-1659%10-7
Each team's usual first ban: BESTIA Anubis · ShindeN Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BESTIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/86 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 86 maps they won, 22 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs LPAncientfrom 10 downvs 3DMAXDust2from 5 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 5 downvs ShindeNDust2from 5 downvs ODDIKAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/66 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 22 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs Fake do BiruInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs ImperialDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs YawaraMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs GalorysAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke19-17vs MarsborneAncient19-16vs RED CanidsAncient16-13vs MANAMirage12-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsAncient14-16
ShindeN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/116 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 116 maps they won, 30 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 downvs ALKADust2from 8 downvs SharksMiragefrom 7 downvs IsurusNukefrom 7 downvs Fake do BiruNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/76 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 28 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13vs paiNMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs LegacyNukeled 7 · lost 8-13vs G2Dust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs ImperialCacheled 6 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs FluxoAncient16-14vs ImperialNuke16-13vs ImperialOverpass19-17vs BESTIANuke17-19vs RED CanidsMirage16-12