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Predictions / Rooster vs Abyssal · match preview
Rooster vs Abyssal: CS2 match prediction · DFRAG Invitational 2026
Rooster
World #181 · 36-26
VS
2026-10-27 03:00 UTC
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
Abyssal
World #128 · 28-26
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
59%41%
44%
2.11.66Market · 1 books
56%The call
Rooster are favoured: our model gives them 59% against Abyssal. Bookmakers lean Abyssal at 56%. Firepower clearly favours Rooster, head-to-head slightly favours Rooster.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
RoosterpullAbyssal
Team strength1557
157153/47 ABY
Track record36–26
28–2654/46 ROO
Recent formLLWLWLLWLW50/50
Roster rating1.06
1.0886/14 ROO
Head-to-head8 maps
5 maps60/40 ROO
Bookmakers imply 44% for Rooster (2.1 / 1.66); we land 15 points higher at 59%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (136 maps of Rooster, 123 of Abyssal). Head-to-head they've met 6 times: Rooster leads 4–2.
Bottom line: Rooster to beat Abyssal, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsRooster · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Abyssal · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Rooster
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
Rooster0 : 2
Abyssal!3mo ago Rooster13 : 2 Abyssal!5mo ago Rooster2 : 1 Abyssal!6mo ago Rooster1 : 2 Abyssal!6mo ago Rooster2 : 0 Abyssal!7mo ago Rooster2 : 0 Abyssal!
Rooster0 : 2 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Rooster
outADK
incookie
Abyssal
outfoggers, gump
inForleks, zune
Rooster13 : 2 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Rooster
outADK
incookie
Abyssal
outfoggers, gump
inForleks, zune
Rooster2 : 1 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Rooster
outADK
incookie
Abyssal
outfoggers, gump
inForleks, zune
Rooster1 : 2 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Rooster
outADK
incookie
Abyssal
outdamyo, foggers, gump
inForleks, blood, zune
Rooster2 : 0 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Rooster
outADK
incookie
Abyssal
outdamyo, foggers, gump
inForleks, blood, zune
Rooster2 : 0 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Rooster
outADK
incookie
Abyssal
outKiyo, foggers, gump
inForleks, blood, zune
FlyQuest#610-40-6
Off Chops#1420-20-2
Rooster vs Off Chops
Oct 17LNuke7-13Cache2-13Abyssal vs Off Chops
Oct 16LDust27-13Inferno3-13
Ground Zero#1437-1912-18
Rooster vs Ground Zero
Sep 27LAnubis13-6Nuke11-13Aug 28LAnubis4-13Nuke15-19Jun 18WNuke2-13Anubis13-11Mirage13-11+8 earlier meetings
Abyssal vs Ground Zero
Oct 16WInferno3-13Ancient13-6Nuke22-19Oct 11WInferno13-8Nuke13-7Oct 11LAncient7-13+10 earlier meetings
Mindfreak#2229-77-11
Rooster vs Mindfreak
Oct 15WCache19-17Mirage13-4Sep 23WNuke13-9Cache13-1Aug 11LInferno9-13Anubis13-6Mirage10-13+4 earlier meetings
Abyssal vs Mindfreak
Oct 10WNuke5-13Ancient13-7Dust213-10Oct 10WCache13-10Jul 17LMirage13-6Inferno9-13Nuke6-13+5 earlier meetings
Arcade7-38-5
Rooster vs Arcade
Aug 30LNuke13-7Inferno3-13Mirage5-13Apr 7WDust213-10Nuke11-13Overpass13-10Mar 24WMirage13-8Overpass16-12+1 earlier meeting
Abyssal vs Arcade
Aug 7WMirage13-6Inferno16-14Aug 5WMirage13-10Nuke7-13Cache13-11Apr 11WOverpass13-10Nuke11-13Mirage13-7+2 earlier meetings
MARMARKandLARRY8-11-2
Rooster vs MARKandLARRY
Oct 14WMirage13-9Cache13-5Aug 29WDust212-16Mirage13-11Inferno13-8Aug 26WInferno13-2Anubis13-4+1 earlier meeting
Abyssal vs MARKandLARRY
Jun 12LInferno13-7Overpass6-13Mirage8-13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER0-61-4
Rooster vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Jul 17LAnubis4-13Nuke0-13Feb 8LOverpass6-13Nuke10-13Jan 31LAnubis4-13Nuke1-13DINDing Cuts2-26-0
Map lab
Abyssal52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Abyssal 2-0
If the veto goes
Rooster 48%how the series ends52% Abyssal
18%2-032%
30%2-120%
Rooster47%13-9vsAbyssal53%7-4
59%Win64%
57%CT46%
53%T58%
50%Pistol64%
77%Conv64%
Rooster40%11-6vsAbyssal60%20-7
65%Win74%
52%CT59%
53%T53%
59%Pistol74%
85%Conv100%
Rooster60%6-1vsAbyssal40%2-1
86%Win67%
75%CT58%
49%T43%
71%Pistol33%
90%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
RoosterDust2Abyssal
57%CT side46%
53%T side58%
50%Pistol64%
77%After win64%
18%After loss13%
RoosterMirageAbyssal
52%CT side59%
53%T side53%
59%Pistol74%
85%After win100%
7%After loss23%
RoosterCacheAbyssal
75%CT side58%
49%T side43%
71%Pistol33%
90%After win100%
50%After loss0%
Pistol rounds57% · 68% · Abyssal win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 91% · Abyssal keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 16% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Rooster vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Abyssal habitually bans Anubis, Rooster's strongest maps (Overpass, Anubis, Mirage, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 30/55), not an opponent read, so expect Rooster to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapROOABY
AncientROO bann/a0g70%7-3
Rooster on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisABY ban61%14-917%1-5
Dust2ROO pick59%13-964%7-4
MirageABY pick65%11-674%20-7
NukeROO ban30%8-1942%11-15
InfernoABY ban48%11-1233%9-18
Cachedecider86%6-167%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: Rooster Ancient · Abyssal Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Rooster
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/76 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 76 maps they won, 24 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs FrujuInfernofrom 10 downvs MindfreakCachefrom 9 downvs LFO 8Anubisfrom 8 downvs ArcadeOverpassfrom 7 downvs MindfreakAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/60 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 19 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MindfreakNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs FlyQuestAnubisled 6 · lost 8-13vs ArcadeNukeled 5 · lost 11-13vs Ground ZeroDust2led 4 · lost 10-13vs AbyssalOverpassled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FrujuInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MindfreakNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs Ground ZeroNuke14-16vs ArcadeNuke16-14vs ArcadeOverpass16-13vs ArcadeOverpass16-12vs MindfreakAnubis22-20
Abyssal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/64 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 64 maps they won, 25 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs Ground ZeroOverpassfrom 8 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDEROverpassfrom 7 downvs MindfreakMiragefrom 7 downvs ArcadeCachefrom 7 downvs MGLBROSNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/59 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 22 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MindfreakNukeled 10 · lost 5-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 8 · lost 12-16vs ArcadeNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs RoosterMirageled 6 · lost 7-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ground ZeroOverpassfrom 8 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MindfreakNukeled 10 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs SkeleAncient16-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNuke12-16vs UndergroundMirage19-15vs MindfreakOverpass17-19vs ArcadeMirage13-16