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Predictions / MEIA NOITE vs Procyon · match preview
MEIA NOITE vs Procyon: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 7
MEI
MEIA NOITE
World #– · 9-15
VS
2026-10-22 16:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
Procyon
World #112 · 36-43
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
31%69%
41%
2.281.59Market · 9 books
59%The call
Procyon are favoured: our model gives them 69% against MEIA NOITE. Bookmakers lean Procyon at 59%. Strength slightly favours Procyon, form slightly favours Procyon, firepower clearly favours Procyon, head-to-head clearly favours Procyon.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MEIA NOITEpullProcyon
Team strength1483
157469/31 PRO
Track record9–15
36–4355/45 PRO
Recent formLWWWL
WWWLW58/42 PRO
Roster rating1.11
1.1186/14 PRO
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 PRO
Bookmakers imply 41% for MEIA NOITE (2.28 / 1.59); we land 10 points lower at 31%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (59 maps of MEIA NOITE, 180 of Procyon). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Procyon leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Procyon to beat MEIA NOITE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMEIA NOITE · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Procyon · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MEIA NOITE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Galorys#692-42-6
Procyon vs Galorys
Oct 4LInferno4-13Ancient6-13Sep 27WInferno13-6Ancient9-13Dust213-5Feb 16LMirage10-13Overpass9-13+1 earlier meeting
Bounty Hunters#820-41-4
Turma do Pagode#1020-22-2
MEIA NOITE vs Turma do Pagode
Sep 22LNuke11-13Dust211-13
ALKA#1523-42-5
BORBORRACHEIROS#1763-20-2
Procyon vs BORRACHEIROS
Oct 10LInferno1-13Mirage14-16QUIQUINTESSÊNCIA#1964-32-1
MEIA NOITE vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Oct 8WInferno10-13Ancient13-10Dust213-8Sep 26WDust213-4Ancient13-8Sep 20LAncient8-13Cache13-16Procyon vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Sep 25WDust210-13Inferno13-9Ancient13-9
Grêmio#2142-13-2
MEIA NOITE vs Grêmio
Sep 2WNuke13-9Ancient11-13Dust216-14
METANOIA Wolves5-34-5
MEIA NOITE vs METANOIA Wolves
Oct 1WAncient6-13Dust213-11Nuke13-9Aug 15LDust27-13Mirage22-20Ancient12-16Aug 9WMirage13-6Dust213-11Map lab
Procyon52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Procyon 2-0
If the veto goes
MEIA NOITE 48%how the series ends52% Procyon
22%2-028%
25%2-125%
MEIA NOITE48%3-6vsProcyon52%9-15
33%Win38%
49%CT52%
43%T46%
50%Pistol54%
89%Conv81%
MEIA NOITE47%2-2vsProcyon53%23-19
50%Win55%
40%CT46%
66%T55%
50%Pistol45%
50%Conv74%
MEIA NOITE51%4-5vsProcyon49%12-15
44%Win44%
53%CT52%
44%T47%
39%Pistol54%
86%Conv90%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MEIA NOITEMirageProcyon
49%CT side52%
43%T side46%
50%Pistol54%
89%After win81%
22%After loss14%
MEIA NOITEInfernoProcyon
40%CT side46%
66%T side55%
50%Pistol45%
50%After win74%
25%After loss26%
MEIA NOITENukeProcyon
53%CT side52%
44%T side47%
39%Pistol54%
86%After win90%
0%After loss16%
Pistol rounds45% · 50% · Procyon win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol13% · 20% · Procyon fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MEIA NOITE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMEIPRO
AnubisMEI bann/a0g69%9-4
MEIA NOITE on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientPRO ban31%5-1156%9-7
MirageMEI pick33%3-638%9-15
InfernoPRO pick50%2-255%23-19
CacheMEI ban0%0-4n/a0g
MEIA NOITE on Cache
LQUINTESSÊNCIA13–161mo agoLBounty Hunters4–132mo agoLBounty Hunters5–132mo agoL
paiN Academy11–133mo agoProcyon on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2PRO ban60%9-644%22-28
Nukedecider44%4-544%12-15
Each team's usual first ban: MEIA NOITE Anubis · Procyon Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MEIA NOITE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/23 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 23 maps they won, 8 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs Low Cortisol BRDust2from 7 downvs GalorysDust2from 5 downvs GrêmioNukefrom 4 downvs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 4 downvs Low Cortisol BRNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/34 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 34 maps they lost, 14 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs QUINTESSÊNCIAAncientled 8 · lost 8-13vs Turma do PagodeDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs GalorysAncientled 8 · lost 6-13vs BORRACHEIROSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Low Cortisol BRDust2from 7 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs BORRACHEIROSAncient13-16vs METANOIA WolvesMirage22-20vs METANOIA WolvesAncient12-16vs GrêmioDust216-14vs ex-MIBR AcademyMirage13-16
Procyon
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/86 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 86 maps they won, 21 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs ex-ODDIKDust2from 9 downvs Red FeetAncientfrom 8 downvs ALKAInfernofrom 8 downvs LUNADust2from 6 downvs UNO MILLEOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/94 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 94 maps they lost, 31 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BORRACHEIROSInfernoled 12 · lost 1-13vs ALKAAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs FOLHA AMARELADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs IsurusInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs MAGICOSAnubisled 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-ODDIKDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BORRACHEIROSInfernoled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs BESTIA AcademyDust212-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs ShindeNDust214-16vs UNO MILLEDust217-19vs UNO MILLEInferno13-16