Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Butterfly vs Nexus · match preview
Butterfly vs Nexus: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 13
Butterfly
World #130 · 24-21
VS
2026-11-09 15:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 · Best of 3
Nexus
World #55 · 30-28
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 · Best of 3
48%52%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. No odds yet. Firepower slightly favours Nexus.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ButterflypullNexus
Team strength1559
159057/43 NEX
Track record24–21
30–2852/48 BUT
Recent formWWLWL
WWLWW52/48 NEX
Roster rating1.13
1.1265/35 NEX
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (106 maps of Butterfly, 130 of Nexus).
Bottom line: Nexus to beat Butterfly, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsButterfly · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Nexus · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Butterfly
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Black Phoenix#583-32-3
FORZE Reload#892-12-0
Butterfly vs FORZE Reload
Oct 29WNuke13-11Ancient14-16Dust213-7Nexus vs FORZE Reload
Nov 7WDust213-11Anubis13-10
G2 Ares#983-20-2
Nexus vs G2 Ares
Aug 17LAnubis11-13Inferno15-19
Acend#1141-22-0
Butterfly vs Acend
Oct 31LDust28-13Inferno13-6Ancient11-13Nexus vs Acend
Oct 9WCache13-6Dust213-6
ex-RUSTEC#1215-43-2
Noir Verse#1471-22-0
Butterfly vs Noir Verse
Oct 1LMirage13-8Nuke5-13Nexus vs Noir Verse
Jun 14WMirage13-3Overpass13-6LAVLavked#2032-42-0
Nexus vs Lavked
Oct 3WAnubis13-9Dust213-8Map lab
Nexus59%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nexus 2-1
If the veto goes
Butterfly 41%how the series ends59% Nexus
32%2-019%
9%2-141%
Butterfly52%9-9vsNexus48%10-11
50%Win48%
49%CT51%
55%T52%
44%Pistol50%
81%Conv81%
Butterfly61%10-4vsNexus39%9-6
71%Win60%
71%CT67%
43%T45%
64%Pistol77%
78%Conv78%
Butterfly18%4-16vsNexus82%11-8
20%Win58%
48%CT47%
39%T52%
45%Pistol53%
83%Conv65%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ButterflyAncientNexus
49%CT side51%
55%T side52%
44%Pistol50%
81%After win81%
20%After loss14%
ButterflyMirageNexus
71%CT side67%
43%T side45%
64%Pistol77%
78%After win78%
0%After loss14%
ButterflyInfernoNexus
48%CT side47%
39%T side52%
45%Pistol53%
83%After win65%
14%After loss6%
Pistol rounds50% · 58% · Nexus win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 75% · Butterfly keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol13% · 11% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Butterfly vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Nexus habitually bans Nuke, Butterfly's strongest maps (Mirage, Nuke, Dust2, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 54/56), not an opponent read, so expect Butterfly to fight the veto for Nuke.
MapBUTNEX
AnubisBUT ban0%0-154%14-12
NukeNEX ban62%16-100%0-1
AncientBUT pick50%9-948%10-11
MirageNEX pick71%10-460%9-6
CacheBUT ban75%3-158%7-5
Dust2NEX ban62%13-841%11-16
Infernodecider20%4-1658%11-8
Each team's usual first ban: Butterfly Anubis · Nexus Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Butterfly
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/55 (45%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 55 maps they won, 25 (45%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 45% of their wins were comebacks, not 45% of all games.vs UPGRADEAncientfrom 10 downvs LavkedNukefrom 8 downvs AcendInfernofrom 8 downvs UPGRADEDust2from 8 downvs SAW YoungstersNukefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/49 (51%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 49 maps they lost, 25 (51%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ARCREDInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKEAncientled 9 · lost 8-13vs LavkedAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs Iberian SoulInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs BET-MInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ARCREDInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs ex-RUSTECNuke14-16vs G2 AresMirage12-16vs G2 AresInferno14-16vs SAW YoungstersInferno13-16vs 1winMirage19-17
Nexus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/66 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 17 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs BASEMENT BOYSMiragefrom 10 downvs PUREInfernofrom 5 downvs AllianceAnubisfrom 5 downvs BC.GameCachefrom 5 downvs PUREAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/63 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 63 maps they lost, 22 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SAWInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs Bushido WildcatsInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs kONODust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BASEMENT BOYSMiragefrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SAWInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAncient15-19vs AllianceInferno16-14vs aimclubInferno16-14vs Inner CircleAncient14-16vs PUREMirage12-16