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Predictions / KUUSAMO vs MAYBE · match preview
KUUSAMO vs MAYBE: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier
KUUSAMO
World #159 · 10-19
VS
2026-11-05 18:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
MAYBE
World #176 · 15-21
CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
43%57%
46%
2.021.71Market · 6 books
54%The call
MAYBE are favoured: our model gives them 57% against KUUSAMO. Bookmakers lean MAYBE at 54%. Strength slightly favours MAYBE, form slightly favours MAYBE, firepower clearly favours MAYBE.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
KUUSAMOpullMAYBE
Team strength1444
147857/43 MAY
Track record10–19
15–2153/47 MAY
Recent formWLLLL
WWLWW67/33 MAY
Roster rating1.02
1.0891/9 MAY
Bookmakers imply 46% for KUUSAMO (2.02 / 1.71); we land 3 points lower at 43%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (56 maps of KUUSAMO, 87 of MAYBE).
Bottom line: MAYBE to beat KUUSAMO, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsKUUSAMO · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keksimage★ | 1.01 | 79.3 | 70.8% | 59% | 1.14 |
| Matz | 0.89 | 74.3 | 69.7% | 54% | 1.05 |
| osku | 1 | 69.9 | 71.2% | 58% | 1.04 |
| rbm | 0.96 | 67.7 | 68% | 44% | 0.95 |
| epik | 0.85 | 61.3 | 66.1% | 52% | 0.92 |
MAYBE · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m4d4ra★ | 1.14 | 88.8 | 69.5% | 53% | 1.33 |
| thirtythird | 1.16 | 72.1 | 70.5% | 32% | 1.1 |
| shallthing | 0.95 | 76.2 | 69.9% | 61% | 1.06 |
| edixenn | 0.95 | 69.3 | 69.1% | 57% | 1.04 |
| Awi4 | 0.74 | 62.2 | 65.4% | 53% | 0.89 |
Recent form
KUUSAMO
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsSAISaint Sinners#1203-21-4
Noir Verse#1472-32-2
PCIFIC#1501-21-2
KUUSAMO vs PCIFIC
Sep 6LDust210-13Nuke13-6Cache9-13MAYBE vs PCIFIC
Nov 4LMirage13-11Inferno1-13Nuke4-13
LPH#1581-22-0
KUUSAMO vs LPH
Sep 10LCache13-3Inferno8-13Dust22-13MAYBE vs LPH
Oct 23WMirage19-17Nuke13-11
Ryvex#1781-23-2
KUUSAMO vs Ryvex
Sep 23LAncient9-13Nuke19-15Mirage9-13
ENCE0-50-2
MAYBE vs ENCE
Oct 7LMirage3-13Nuke7-13Map lab
MAYBE71%to win the Bo3 · most likely MAYBE 2-1
If the veto goes
KUUSAMO 29%how the series ends71% MAYBE
22%2-027%
7%2-144%
KUUSAMO56%8-9vsMAYBE44%4-6
47%Win40%
54%CT59%
45%T40%
56%Pistol25%
89%Conv80%
KUUSAMO39%6-7vsMAYBE61%14-10
46%Win58%
50%CT58%
51%T48%
62%Pistol52%
88%Conv88%
KUUSAMO14%0-7vsMAYBE86%8-11
0%Win42%
34%CT49%
30%T52%
36%Pistol61%
80%Conv70%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
KUUSAMONukeMAYBE
54%CT side59%
45%T side40%
56%Pistol25%
89%After win80%
0%After loss13%
KUUSAMOMirageMAYBE
50%CT side58%
51%T side48%
62%Pistol52%
88%After win88%
30%After loss4%
KUUSAMOAncientMAYBE
34%CT side49%
30%T side52%
36%Pistol61%
80%After win70%
22%After loss0%
Pistol rounds54% · 50% · KUUSAMO win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 79% · KUUSAMO keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 6% · KUUSAMO fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, KUUSAMO vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapKUUMAY
AnubisKUU bann/a0g60%3-2
KUUSAMO on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoMAY ban33%2-40%0-3
NukeKUU pick47%8-940%4-6
MirageMAY pick46%6-758%14-10
Dust2KUU ban20%1-433%4-8
CacheMAY ban50%3-340%4-6
Ancientdecider0%0-742%8-11
Each team's usual first ban: KUUSAMO Anubis · MAYBE Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
KUUSAMO
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/20 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 20 maps they won, 10 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs LPHCachefrom 10 downvs Mai TaiNukefrom 8 downvs Mai TaiDust2from 7 downvs Noir VerseMiragefrom 7 downvs Noir VerseCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/34 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 34 maps they lost, 11 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZ NXTAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs CSDIILITNukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs PCIFICDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs PCIFICCacheled 5 · lost 9-13vs INFURITYInfernoled 5 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPHCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZ NXTAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs SINQUNuke13-16vs MisaNuke22-18vs MisaCache16-14vs RyvexNuke19-15
MAYBE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/37 (46%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 37 maps they won, 17 (46%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 46% of their wins were comebacks, not 46% of all games.vs RyvexAncientfrom 9 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 7 downvs LFO 10Miragefrom 7 downvs LeoCachefrom 7 downvs benched godsCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/46 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 17 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs eternal premiumMirageled 10 · lost 14-16vs Saint SinnersDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs Spirit AcademyNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs Falcons ForceAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs GamersLabMirageled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RyvexAncientfrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs eternal premiumMirageled 10 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs GamersLabMirage12-16vs Spirit AcademyMirage14-16vs IllyriansMirage16-12vs eternal premiumMirage14-16vs eternal premiumDust216-14