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Predictions / Ryvex vs Drama · match preview
Ryvex vs Drama: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier
Ryvex
World #178 · 10-13
VS
2026-11-08 18:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Drama
World #170 · 12-20
CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
38%62%
The call
Drama are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Ryvex. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Drama, form slightly favours Drama, firepower clearly favours Drama, head-to-head slightly favours Drama.
Likely mapsAncient · Nuke · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
RyvexpullDrama
Team strength1442
148860/40 DRA
Track record10–13
12–2052/48 DRA
Recent formWLLLW
LWWWL58/42 DRA
Roster rating1.02
1.0794/6 DRA
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 DRA
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 93% our own signal (60 maps of Ryvex, 76 of Drama). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Drama leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Drama to beat Ryvex, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsRyvex · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Drama · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Ryvex
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
mellren#990-21-2
Ryvex vs mellren
Oct 7LAncient11-13Mirage7-13Drama vs mellren
Sep 16LNuke13-8Inferno7-13Mirage7-13
Phantom Academy#1492-01-2
Ryvex vs Phantom Academy
Oct 19WDust213-6Ancient13-8Drama vs Phantom Academy
Nov 7LDust213-3Cache8-13Mirage8-13Map lab
Drama60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Drama 2-1
If the veto goes
Ryvex 40%how the series ends60% Drama
18%2-022%
23%2-137%
Ryvex70%11-6vsDrama30%7-10
65%Win41%
55%CT45%
45%T49%
53%Pistol38%
61%Conv69%
Ryvex25%3-7vsDrama75%5-3
30%Win63%
46%CT67%
45%T42%
40%Pistol69%
75%Conv73%
Ryvex38%4-5vsDrama62%10-7
44%Win59%
59%CT58%
35%T47%
33%Pistol74%
67%Conv92%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
RyvexAncientDrama
55%CT side45%
45%T side49%
53%Pistol38%
61%After win69%
19%After loss5%
RyvexNukeDrama
46%CT side67%
45%T side42%
40%Pistol69%
75%After win73%
17%After loss20%
RyvexMirageDrama
59%CT side58%
35%T side47%
33%Pistol74%
67%After win92%
17%After loss0%
Pistol rounds44% · 58% · Drama win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol66% · 82% · Drama keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 6% · Ryvex fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Ryvex vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapRYVDRA
AnubisRYV bann/a0g0%0-2
Ryvex on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2DRA ban31%4-927%3-8
AncientRYV pick65%11-641%7-10
NukeDRA pick30%3-763%5-3
CacheRYV ban13%1-771%5-2
InfernoDRA ban67%2-125%3-9
Miragedecider44%4-559%10-7
Each team's usual first ban: Ryvex Anubis · Drama Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Ryvex
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/25 (48%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 12 (48%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 48% of their wins were comebacks, not 48% of all games.vs QuintessenceNukefrom 8 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 5 downvs The PigsDust2from 5 downvs PrivateerDust2from 4 downvs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/35 (43%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 35 maps they lost, 15 (43%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs benched godsCacheled 12 · lost 1-13vs LeoNukeled 11 · lost 2-13vs MAYBEAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs PCIFICDust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs mellrenAncientled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs QuintessenceNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs benched godsCacheled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs PrivateerDust225-22vs The Last ResortAncient19-17vs Noir VerseCache12-16vs KUUSAMONuke15-19vs The PigsDust219-16
Drama
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/33 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 33 maps they won, 12 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs Saint SinnersAncientfrom 7 downvs mellrenNukefrom 6 downvs ENCEMiragefrom 6 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 6 downvs Banda ChuyaMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/43 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 43 maps they lost, 16 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Johnny SpeedsInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs BAKSInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs FaZeNukeled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Saint SinnersAncientfrom 7 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Johnny SpeedsInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs ZOTIXDust213-16vs fnaticAncient16-14vs SINQUInferno16-19vs INOX DivisionInferno12-16vs NexusMirage14-16