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Predictions / Phantom Academy vs Illyrians · match preview
Phantom Academy vs Illyrians: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier
Phantom Academy
World #149 · 21-21
VS
2026-11-09 15:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Illyrians
World #111 · 26-18
CCT 2026 Europe Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
61%39%
The call
Phantom Academy are favoured: our model gives them 61% against Illyrians. No odds yet. Firepower clearly favours Phantom Academy, head-to-head slightly favours Phantom Academy.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Phantom AcademypullIllyrians
Team strength1525
151951/49 PHA
Track record21–21
26–1852/48 ILL
Recent formWWLWW
WWWWL53/47 ILL
Roster rating1.04
1.0577/23 PHA
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 PHA
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (97 maps of Phantom Academy, 111 of Illyrians). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Phantom Academy leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Phantom Academy to beat Illyrians, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsPhantom Academy · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Illyrians · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BledarD★ | 1.14 | 80.1 | 70.1% | 39% | 1.17 |
| Lewis | 0.98 | 78.7 | 70.7% | 60% | 1.13 |
| ammar | 0.98 | 70.9 | 69% | 64% | 1.09 |
| rosoneriii | 0.82 | 65.9 | 67.5% | 48% | 0.94 |
| vAloN | 0.82 | 68.8 | 70.5% | 50% | 0.93 |
Recent form
Phantom Academy
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
UNiTY#750-22-1
Phantom Academy vs UNiTY
Sep 15LDust211-13Ancient11-13Illyrians vs UNiTY
Sep 22WInferno1-13Dust213-7Anubis13-9
Leo#791-20-2
Phantom Academy vs Leo
Sep 30LCache4-13Mirage13-5Dust22-13Illyrians vs Leo
Nov 3LAncient11-13Dust24-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#870-21-2
Phantom Academy vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 9LCache7-13Nuke13-16Illyrians vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 25LMirage13-7Cache2-13Dust26-13
G2 Ares#980-22-1
Phantom Academy vs G2 Ares
May 23LMirage10-13Inferno4-13Illyrians vs G2 Ares
Oct 21WAncient7-13Mirage13-10Cache13-3
WW#1290-22-1
Phantom Academy vs WW
Sep 21LDust26-13Nuke10-13Illyrians vs WW
Sep 23WMirage13-7Ancient11-13Dust213-3
Noir Verse#1471-22-2
Phantom Academy vs Noir Verse
Sep 12LCache13-0Ancient10-13Anubis6-13
Bushido Wildcats#1482-12-0
Phantom Academy vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 27WDust25-13Nuke16-13Mirage13-9Illyrians vs Bushido Wildcats
Oct 13WAnubis16-14Cache13-7
PCIFIC#1502-02-3
Phantom Academy vs PCIFIC
Sep 17WNuke13-4Dust213-11Map lab
Phantom Academy57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Phantom Academy 2-0
If the veto goes
Phantom Academy 57%how the series ends43% Illyrians
34%2-016%
23%2-127%
Phantom Academy68%17-7vsIllyrians32%15-14
71%Win52%
62%CT57%
50%T45%
63%Pistol52%
77%Conv87%
Phantom Academy50%8-10vsIllyrians50%13-16
44%Win45%
45%CT49%
48%T46%
39%Pistol43%
64%Conv92%
Phantom Academy47%7-9vsIllyrians53%9-10
44%Win47%
53%CT51%
49%T46%
63%Pistol47%
90%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Phantom AcademyMirageIllyrians
62%CT side57%
50%T side45%
63%Pistol52%
77%After win87%
17%After loss18%
Phantom AcademyDust2Illyrians
45%CT side49%
48%T side46%
39%Pistol43%
64%After win92%
18%After loss27%
Phantom AcademyAncientIllyrians
53%CT side51%
49%T side46%
63%Pistol47%
90%After win78%
17%After loss25%
Pistol rounds55% · 47% · Phantom Academy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 86% · Illyrians keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 23% · Illyrians fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Phantom Academy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPHAILL
InfernoPHA ban0%0-140%2-3
Phantom Academy on Inferno
LG2 Ares4–136mo agoNukeILL ban59%10-70%0-1
MiragePHA pick71%17-752%15-14
Dust2ILL pick44%8-1045%13-16
AnubisPHA ban50%3-375%6-2
CacheILL ban38%5-881%13-3
Ancientdecider44%7-947%9-10
Each team's usual first ban: Phantom Academy Inferno · Illyrians Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Phantom Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/50 (46%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 23 (46%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 46% of their wins were comebacks, not 46% of all games.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 downvs antidaunAnubisfrom 10 downvs uwuzaDust2from 8 downvs benched godsMiragefrom 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/45 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 45 maps they lost, 14 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs WWDust2led 8 · lost 6-13vs MisaCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs Spirit AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 8-13vs TNCAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs benched godsCacheled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 13 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 down · won 13-0
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs WWDust2led 8 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs TNCAncient12-16vs HonvédDust214-16vs benched godsMirage16-13vs ex-Zero TenacityNuke13-16vs benched godsMirage16-14
Illyrians
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/58 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 58 maps they won, 23 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs Banda ChuyaCachefrom 11 downvs BebopAncientfrom 11 downvs WWDust2from 10 downvs BebopCachefrom 9 downvs VexarAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/49 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 49 maps they lost, 16 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUSTECAnubisled 10 · lost 6-13vs HonvédMirageled 10 · lost 5-13vs FortressInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs Noir VerseNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs AzuolasMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Banda ChuyaCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUSTECAnubisled 10 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs STATEAncient16-12vs MAYBEMirage12-16vs SAW YoungstersDust219-17vs Bushido WildcatsAnubis16-14vs Black PhoenixMirage13-16