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Predictions / XEPT vs Coinstep · match preview
XEPT vs Coinstep: CS2 match prediction · Svenska Cupen 2026 Closed Qualifier
XEPCOI
XEPT
World #– · 1-5
VS
2026-11-15 14:00 UTC
Svenska Cupen 2026 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Coinstep
World #– · 1-1
Svenska Cupen 2026 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
39%61%
The call
Coinstep are favoured: our model gives them 61% against XEPT. No odds yet. Record slightly favours Coinstep, firepower clearly favours Coinstep.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
XEPTpullCoinstep
Team strength1489
149952/48 COI
Track record1–5
1–167/33 COI
Recent formWLLLL
LW54/46 XEP
Roster rating1.13
1.24100/0 COI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 63% our own signal (7 maps of XEPT, 6 of Coinstep; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Coinstep to beat XEPT, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsXEPT · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.42iStar gap: the best player rates 0.42 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Coinstep · avg 1.24 · star gap +0.26iStar gap: the best player rates 0.26 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realyummy★ | 1.22 | 91.7 | 80.2% | 54% | 1.5 |
| PALM1 | 1.3 | 90.8 | 76.8% | 37% | 1.42 |
| Majkn | 1.1 | 75.5 | 75.8% | 41% | 1.24 |
| TiiREX | 1.01 | 78.8 | 74.5% | 46% | 1.12 |
| Cocaz | 0.87 | 56.8 | 75.3% | 51% | 0.9 |
Recent form
Coinstep
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsBAKBakisochskakis2-02-1
XEPT vs Bakisochskakis
Nov 7WMirage13-7Inferno13-8Coinstep vs Bakisochskakis
Nov 6WDust213-8Inferno9-13Nuke13-0Map lab
XEPT54%to win the Bo3 · most likely XEPT 2-0
If the veto goes
XEPT 54%how the series ends46% Coinstep
29%2-021%
25%2-125%
XEPT58%1-1vsCoinstep42%0-2
50%Win0%
47%CT58%
38%T24%
50%Pistol25%
50%Conv100%
XEPT50%0-0thinCoinstep50%1-1
–Win50%
–CT57%
–T50%
–Pistol50%
–Conv100%
XEPT50%0-0thinCoinstep50%0-0
–Win–
–CT–
–T–
–Pistol–
–Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
XEPTInfernoCoinstep
47%CT side58%
38%T side24%
50%Pistol25%
50%After win100%
50%After loss33%
XEPTDust2Coinstep
–CT side57%
–T side50%
–Pistol50%
–After win100%
–After loss50%
XEPTCacheCoinstep
–CT side–
–T side–
–Pistol–
–After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds50% · 38% · XEPT win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol50% · 100% · Coinstep keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol50% · 40% · XEPT fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, XEPT vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapXEPCOI
NukeXEP bann/a0g100%1-0
XEPT on Nuke
no recent maps
Coinstep on Nuke
WBakisochskakis13–02d agoMirageCOI ban25%1-3n/a0g
XEPT on Mirage
WBakisochskakis13–71d agoL
SportsBetExpert2–131mo agoL
Sangal7–131mo agoL
HAVU4–131mo agoCoinstep on Mirage
no recent maps
InfernoXEP pick50%1-10%0-2
Dust2COI pickn/a0g50%1-1
XEPT on Dust2
no recent maps
AncientXEP ban0%0-1100%1-0
XEPT on Ancient
L
BBL2–131mo agoCoinstep on Ancient
W
Kappa Bar13–101d agoAnubisCOI bann/a0gn/a0g
XEPT on Anubis
no recent maps
Coinstep on Anubis
no recent maps
Cachedecidern/a0gn/a0g
XEPT on Cache
no recent maps
Coinstep on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: XEPT Nuke · Coinstep ?.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
XEPT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/2 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/5 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini8.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Coinstep
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/3 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 1 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs Kappa BarAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/3 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 3 maps they lost, 1 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Kappa BarInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Kappa BarAncientfrom 3 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Kappa BarInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi50% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT50% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample