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Predictions / BAKS vs Azuolas · match preview
BAKS vs Azuolas: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 14 Closed Qualifier
BAKS
World #96 · 29-24
VS
2026-11-08 18:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Azuolas
World #207 · 9-21
NODWIN Clutch Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
81%19%
The call · high confidence
BAKS are favoured: our model gives them 81% against Azuolas. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours BAKS, record slightly favours BAKS, firepower clearly favours BAKS, head-to-head clearly favours BAKS.
Likely mapsCache · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BAKSpullAzuolas
Team strength1553
141777/23 BAK
Track record29–24
9–2167/33 BAK
Recent formLWWLWWLLWW50/50
Roster rating1.12
1.0596/4 BAK
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 BAK
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 94% our own signal (133 maps of BAKS, 71 of Azuolas). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: BAKS leads 1–0.
Bottom line: BAKS to beat Azuolas, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBAKS · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.01iStar gap: the best player rates 0.01 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Azuolas · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BAKS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit Academy#834-00-2
Azuolas vs Spirit Academy
Sep 21LNuke12-16Dust25-13
FORZE Reload#892-21-2
Azuolas vs FORZE Reload
Oct 20LAncient5-13
G2 Ares#984-20-4
Illyrians#1114-22-1
Azuolas vs Illyrians
Oct 31WCache17-19Mirage13-11Ancient13-5
ex-RUSTEC#1212-11-4
BAKS vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 18WDust27-13Cache13-10Nuke13-8
Misa#1373-32-4
Bushido Wildcats#1482-16-2
BAKS vs Bushido Wildcats
Oct 14WCache16-14Dust29-13Mirage13-2Azuolas vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 18LMirage8-13Nuke9-13Sep 17WNuke13-6Cache13-4Sep 9WMirage13-5Nuke13-10+1 earlier meeting
LFOLFO 10#1921-22-1
BAKS vs LFO 10
Oct 21LMirage13-7Cache7-13Ancient4-13Azuolas vs LFO 10
Nov 1WAncient13-3Mirage11-13Anubis13-9Map lab
BAKS71%to win the Bo3 · most likely BAKS 2-0
If the veto goes
BAKS 71%how the series ends29% Azuolas
42%2-012%
29%2-117%
BAKS61%24-13vsAzuolas39%1-2
65%Win33%
57%CT50%
53%T45%
45%Pistol17%
94%Conv100%
BAKS69%10-7vsAzuolas31%7-12
59%Win37%
60%CT52%
47%T42%
47%Pistol53%
75%Conv90%
BAKS63%10-12vsAzuolas37%5-11
45%Win31%
58%CT52%
38%T39%
55%Pistol34%
83%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BAKSCacheAzuolas
57%CT side50%
53%T side45%
45%Pistol17%
94%After win100%
23%After loss40%
BAKSMirageAzuolas
60%CT side52%
47%T side42%
47%Pistol53%
75%After win90%
6%After loss17%
BAKSNukeAzuolas
58%CT side52%
38%T side39%
55%Pistol34%
83%After win100%
15%After loss29%
Pistol rounds48% · 42% · BAKS win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 94% · Azuolas keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 25% · Azuolas fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BAKS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBAKAZU
AnubisBAK bann/a0g43%3-4
BAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2AZU ban38%10-1620%1-4
CacheBAK pick65%24-1333%1-2
MirageAZU pick59%10-737%7-12
InfernoBAK ban35%6-1143%3-4
AncientAZU ban77%10-336%5-9
Each team's usual first ban: BAKS Anubis · Azuolas Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/70 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 70 maps they won, 24 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 downvs CRUISER AURORAMiragefrom 10 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 10 downvs K28Dust2from 9 downvs DramaInfernofrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/63 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 63 maps they lost, 20 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs Black PhoenixDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs K27Cacheled 7 · lost 17-19vs GenOneInfernoled 7 · lost 7-13vs Fire FluxMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20
Azuolas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/25 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 9 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 7 downvs IllyriansMiragefrom 7 downvs MisaAncientfrom 5 downvs MisaInfernofrom 5 downvs WalczakiDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/46 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 15 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BAKSCacheled 11 · lost 2-13vs HAVUNukeled 9 · lost 7-13vs G2 AresInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs ex-ENCEDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs PermittaMirageled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 7 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BAKSCacheled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs PermittaMirage12-16vs PermittaNuke19-16vs EntropyDust213-16vs G2 AresMirage15-19vs ex-RUSTECMirage19-16