Matches / Upcoming / XDM vs Nas
XDM vs Nas: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1
Our model gives XDM a 57% chance to beat Nas at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1. Bookmakers price XDM at 1.45 and Nas at 2.43 (implied 63% vs 37%).
FormatBO3Form3-5 · 2-4PistolsXDM 68%Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Dust2
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
The Huns#1061-41-4
5star#1452-10-1
XDM vs 5star
Aug 25WMirage11-13Inferno13-10Ancient13-5Nas vs 5star
Apr 30LNuke9-13Firepower
roster ratingsXDM · avg 1.06 · top +0.13
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, XDM vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapXDMNAS
NukeXDM ban 0%0-2 40%2-3
InfernoNAS ban 100%1-0 0%0-1
XDM on Inferno
W5star13–102d agoNas on Inferno
L
Legion10–134mo agoMirageXDM pick 14%1-6 0%0-1
AncientNAS pick 33%1-2 50%2-2
CacheXDM ban n/a0g n/a0g
XDM on Cache
no recent maps
Nas on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisNAS ban 100%1-0 n/a0g
XDM on Anubis
W
Just Swing13–55mo agoNas on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2decider 75%3-1 50%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: XDM Inferno · Nas Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Nas51%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Nas 52% toss-up · Ancient: Nas 55% toss-up · Dust2: XDM 56% toss-upWhyNas hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesXDM 49%: 2-1 28%, 2-0 21% · Nas 51%: 2-0 29%, 2-1 22%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
XDM 49%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Nas only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.51% Nas
Mirage
XDM48%Nas52%
1-6record0-1
14%win0%
44%CT win42%
38%T win40%
64%pistol50%
78%convert100%
Ancient
XDM45%Nas55%
1-2record2-2
33%win50%
50%CT win49%
50%T win40%
67%pistol38%
100%convert100%
Dust2
XDM56%Nas44%
3-1record1-1
75%win50%
51%CT win45%
60%T win63%
75%pistol50%
67%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
XDMct
XDMt
NASct
NASt
XDMpistol
XDMconv
XDMeco
NASpistol
NASconv
NASeco
Miragepool
44%27/61
38%32/84
42%5/12
40%4/10
64%9/14
78%7/9
0%0/5
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Ancientpool
50%14/28
50%17/34
49%17/35
40%17/42
67%4/6
100%4/4
0%0/2
38%3/8
100%3/3
0%0/5
Dust2pool
51%23/45
60%27/45
45%5/11
63%15/24
75%6/8
67%4/6
0%0/2
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Nukeban
38%9/24
39%7/18
48%26/54
46%26/56
75%3/4
67%2/3
0%0/1
70%7/10
100%7/7
33%1/3
Infernoban
42%5/12
73%8/11
25%3/12
64%7/11
100%2/2
100%2/2
n/a
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
83%10/12
50%3/6
n/a
n/a
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
XDM wins more pistol rounds: 68% vs 43%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Nas usually win the next round too (100% vs 79%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (0% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
XDM
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/8 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 3 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs Just SwingDust2from 4 downvs UnitronicsDust2from 3 downvs 5starInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/11 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 11 maps they lost, 4 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The HunsDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs Chinggis WarriorsMirageled 4 · lost 8-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs UnitronicsMirageled 3 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Just SwingDust2from 4 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The HunsDust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs The HunsMirage19-22
Nas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/5 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 2 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs BanzaiAncientfrom 6 downvs LegionNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/8 (13%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 1 (13%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Wings of FreedomNukeled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BanzaiAncientfrom 6 down · won 22-19
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Wings of FreedomNukeled 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs BanzaiAncient22-19
XDM vs Nas FAQ
Who is favored to win XDM vs Nas?
XDM are favored with a 57% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for XDM vs Nas?
Bookmakers price XDM at 1.45 and Nas at 2.43 (implied 63% vs 37%).
When do XDM and Nas play?
XDM vs Nas is scheduled for 2026-08-27 13:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1.