Matches / Upcoming / Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · European Pro League Series 9
Black Phoenix
World #79 · 29-26
VS
2026-09-24 10:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
ex-RUSTEC
World #64 · 33-21
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
56%44%
The call
Black Phoenix are favoured: our model gives them 56% against ex-RUSTEC. No odds yet. Firepower clearly favours Black Phoenix, head-to-head slightly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Nuke
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-RUSTEC · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.13 | 80.2 | 73.1% | 68% | 1.2 |
| youka | 1.25 | 73.7 | 71.9% | 36% | 1.2 |
| shalfey | 1.11 | 76.8 | 74.3% | 61% | 1.15 |
| jakekeS | 0.92 | 68.2 | 73.2% | 55% | 1.01 |
| Brilliance | 0.87 | 71.5 | 69.2% | 56% | 1 |
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6d ago
Black Phoenix2 : 1 ex-RUSTEC◆ same lineup1mo ago Black Phoenix0 : 2 ex-RUSTEC!
Black Phoenix2 : 1 ex-RUSTEC◆ same lineup1mo ago Black Phoenix0 : 2 ex-RUSTEC!⚠ Different lineup
Black Phoenix
outyiksrezo
inMRcreed
ex-RUSTEC
outPatsi
inyiksrezo
Sashi#581-22-1
Black Phoenix vs Sashi
Aug 2LCache6-13Dust213-2Nuke8-13ex-RUSTEC vs Sashi
Aug 28WDust213-5Cache10-13Nuke13-5
INOX Division#701-20-4
Black Phoenix vs INOX Division
Sep 10LNuke4-13Dust213-1Inferno5-13
Bushido Wildcats#722-10-2
Black Phoenix vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 19WDust213-11Mirage4-13Nuke13-7ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22
FORZE Reload#770-20-4
Black Phoenix vs FORZE Reload
Aug 27LMirage10-13Dust210-13
BAKS#803-31-2
ex-RUSTEC vs BAKS
Sep 18LDust213-7Cache10-13Nuke8-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#830-60-2
Black Phoenix vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 22LAnubis8-13Dust210-13Sep 2LAnubis8-13Dust27-13Aug 25LCache3-13Dust211-13ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18LCache5-13Mirage8-13
Butterfly#843-31-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Butterfly
Aug 5LCache10-13Nuke16-14Dust210-13
QUAZAR#871-20-2
Black Phoenix vs QUAZAR
Sep 21LDust213-4Cache7-13Nuke9-13ex-RUSTEC vs QUAZAR
Sep 16LNuke12-16Mirage10-13Map lab
ex-RUSTEC70%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUSTEC 2-0
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 30%how the series ends70% ex-RUSTEC
6%2-045%
24%2-124%
Black Phoenix49%25-17vsex-RUSTEC51%22-14
60%Win61%
53%CT56%
54%T51%
52%Pistol49%
93%Conv77%
Black Phoenix12%3-13vsex-RUSTEC88%16-7
19%Win70%
43%CT52%
35%T57%
31%Pistol59%
40%Conv93%
Black Phoenix50%10-10vsex-RUSTEC50%14-14
50%Win50%
60%CT55%
38%T45%
48%Pistol54%
84%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixDust2ex-RUSTEC
53%CT side56%
54%T side51%
52%Pistol49%
93%After win77%
13%After loss16%
Black PhoenixAnubisex-RUSTEC
43%CT side52%
35%T side57%
31%Pistol59%
40%After win93%
14%After loss26%
Black PhoenixNukeex-RUSTEC
60%CT side55%
38%T side45%
48%Pistol54%
84%After win80%
5%After loss8%
Pistol rounds47% · 53% · ex-RUSTEC win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol11% · 16% · ex-RUSTEC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBLAEX-
AncientBLA ban0%0-1n/a0g
Black Phoenix on Ancient
LPsychoFace11–1315d agoex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoEX- ban64%9-546%6-7
Dust2BLA pick60%25-1761%22-14
AnubisEX- pick19%3-1370%16-7
MirageBLA ban38%8-1344%7-9
CacheEX- ban53%8-746%6-7
Nukedecider50%10-1050%14-14
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · ex-RUSTEC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/63 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 23 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs G2 AresDust2from 10 downvs QUAZARDust2from 9 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs BAKSDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/66 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 22 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresDust2from 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/71 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 71 maps they won, 22 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs NexusDust2from 6 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/58 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 58 maps they lost, 20 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs DramaMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC FAQ
Who is favored to win Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC?
Black Phoenix are favored with a 56% model win probability.
What are the betting odds for Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC?
Match odds for Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC aren't available yet. Check back closer to the match.
When do Black Phoenix and ex-RUSTEC play?
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC is scheduled for 2026-09-24 10:30 UTC at European Pro League Series 9.