Matches / Upcoming / paiN vs Fluxo
paiN vs Fluxo: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · Circuit X Curitiba Season 3
paiN
World #27 · 28-30
VS
2026-09-18 15:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
Fluxo
World #61 · 40-35
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
43%57%
50%
1.841.85Market · 4 books
50%The call
Fluxo are favoured: our model gives them 57% against paiN. Bookmakers lean paiN at 50%. Strength slightly favours Fluxo, firepower clearly favours Fluxo, head-to-head clearly favours paiN.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Inferno
Firepower
roster ratingspaiN · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Fluxo · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
paiN
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2#82-20-2
9z#141-31-2
BIG#250-30-2
Fluxo vs BIG
Aug 7LMirage8-13Inferno6-13
HEROIC#320-20-1
paiN vs HEROIC
Jan 17LNuke6-13Mirage14-16Fluxo vs HEROIC
Mar 28LInferno1-13
Imperial#621-210-6
paiN vs Imperial
Sep 11LInferno9-13Dust213-9Mirage10-13Fluxo vs Imperial
Sep 12WAnubis13-11Inferno16-14Jul 31WDust25-13Inferno13-9Nuke13-8Jul 20WNuke17-19Cache16-13Dust219-17Mirage3-13Anubis13-11+2 earlier meetings
ShindeN#804-310-10
Galorys#952-10-6
paiN vs Galorys
Apr 1WNuke16-13Overpass6-13Mirage13-5
LP#1012-15-3
Map lab
Fluxo55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Fluxo 2-1
If the veto goes
paiN 45%how the series ends55% Fluxo
23%2-024%
21%2-131%
paiN60%23-13vsFluxo40%27-24
64%Win53%
56%CT59%
53%T46%
44%Pistol55%
72%Conv79%
paiN39%11-14vsFluxo61%18-14
44%Win56%
50%CT52%
45%T52%
50%Pistol39%
88%Conv92%
paiN41%8-11vsFluxo59%13-12
42%Win52%
49%CT55%
46%T45%
45%Pistol42%
76%Conv90%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
paiNNukeFluxo
56%CT side59%
53%T side46%
44%Pistol55%
72%After win79%
23%After loss15%
paiNDust2Fluxo
50%CT side52%
45%T side52%
50%Pistol39%
88%After win92%
20%After loss21%
paiNInfernoFluxo
49%CT side55%
46%T side45%
45%Pistol42%
76%After win90%
24%After loss28%
Pistol rounds46% · 47% · level, no edge
After a won pistol78% · 84% · Fluxo keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol22% · 20% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, paiN vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPAIFLU
AncientPAI bann/a0g18%2-9
paiN on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisFLU ban67%6-350%9-9
NukePAI pick64%23-1353%27-24
Dust2FLU pick44%11-1456%18-14
CachePAI ban0%0-650%5-5
MirageFLU ban50%13-1363%17-10
Infernodecider42%8-1152%13-12
Each team's usual first ban: paiN Ancient · Fluxo Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
paiN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/65 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 14 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 5 downvs G2Miragefrom 4 downvs DASHInfernofrom 4 downvs DASHNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/69 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 69 maps they lost, 23 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs FaZeDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs Bounty HuntersMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs Gaimin GladiatorsOverpassled 5 · lost 11-13vs WildcardInfernoled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs HEROICMirage14-16vs B8Dust216-12vs 3DMAXInferno16-14vs PARIVISIONMirage15-19vs G2Inferno16-14
Fluxo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/91 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 91 maps they won, 25 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 downvs Keyd StarsNukefrom 8 downvs EHISTO BASENukefrom 7 downvs paiN AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs MarsborneAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/83 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 83 maps they lost, 21 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13vs LPInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs GalorysNukeled 6 · lost 7-13vs GameHuntersMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs ShindeNAncient14-16vs ODDIKAncient18-22vs ODDIKDust222-18vs SAWAnubis22-20vs Keyd StarsNuke13-16
paiN vs Fluxo FAQ
Who is favored to win paiN vs Fluxo?
Fluxo are favored with a 57% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for paiN vs Fluxo?
Bookmakers price paiN at 1.84 and Fluxo at 1.85 (implied 50% vs 50%).
When do paiN and Fluxo play?
paiN vs Fluxo is scheduled for 2026-09-18 15:00 UTC at Circuit X Curitiba Season 3.