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Predictions / Leo vs SPARTA · match preview
Leo vs SPARTA: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 8
Leo
World #117 · 43-44
VS
2026-09-09 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · Best of 3
SPARTA
World #– · 47-50
38%62%
26%
3.61.26Market · 13 books
74%The call
SPARTA are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Leo. Bookmakers lean SPARTA at 74%. Strength slightly favours SPARTA, form slightly favours SPARTA, head-to-head slightly favours SPARTA.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LeopullSPARTA
Team strength1512
160870/30 SPA
Track record43–44
47–5055/45 SPA
Recent formLWWLL
WWLLW57/43 SPA
Roster rating1.09
1.1357/43 SPA
Head-to-head2 maps
3 maps57/43 SPA
Bookmakers imply 26% for Leo (3.6 / 1.26); we land 12 points higher at 38%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (217 maps of Leo, 241 of SPARTA). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: SPARTA to beat Leo, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Leo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents18d ago
SPARTA2 : 0
Leo!3mo ago SPARTA1 : 2 Leo!
SPARTA2 : 0 Leo!⚠ Different lineup
SPARTA
outsugaR
ininterz
SPARTA1 : 2 Leo!⚠ Different lineup
Leo
outOneUn1que, amster, kL1o, rendysky
inTarkky, aimy, drac, next1me
SPARTA
outDjon8, k4nfuz
inglowiing, interz
BIG#240-20-2
Leo vs BIG
Mar 3LAnubis14-16Inferno7-13SPARTA vs BIG
Apr 26LMirage11-13Ancient17-19
HOTU#271-20-2
Leo vs HOTU
Mar 13LDust29-13Ancient13-6Nuke20-22SPARTA vs HOTU
Aug 31LDust25-13Cache8-13
fnatic#371-22-3
Leo vs fnatic
Apr 27LAncient4-13Mirage13-10Anubis10-13
1win#380-21-2
Leo vs 1win
Jan 31LInferno9-13Ancient8-13SPARTA vs 1win
Aug 28LMirage5-13Dust213-4Ancient4-13
Nuclear TigeRES#452-03-3
Leo vs Nuclear TigeRES
Feb 18WDust219-16Ancient13-5
GenOne#552-57-6
Metizport#700-21-2
Leo vs Metizport
Mar 3LDust210-13Nuke11-13SPARTA vs Metizport
Aug 18LMirage10-13Nuke13-6Inferno6-13
ASTRAL#715-52-0
Leo vs ASTRAL
Jun 29LMirage10-13Dust25-13May 31LAncient13-3Dust26-13Anubis11-13Mar 23WDust213-8Anubis5-13Ancient13-9+1 earlier meeting
SPARTA vs ASTRAL
Feb 25WAncient13-9Mirage13-10Firepower
roster ratingsLeo · avg 1.09 · top +0.12
SPARTA · avg 1.13 · top +0.11
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| interz | 2 | 1.14 | 83.8 | 86.1% | 62% | 1.24 |
| glowiing | 49 | 1.08 | 83.5 | 74.7% | 55% | 1.16 |
| TRAVIS | 212 | 1.09 | 74.4 | 73.3% | 58% | 1.15 |
| El1an | 212 | 1.23 | 77.2 | 72.1% | 28% | 1.14 |
| NickelBack | 212 | 0.82 | 67.5 | 69.9% | 50% | 0.97 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Leo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLEOSPA
MirageLEO ban45%5-650%21-21
AnubisSPA ban32%12-2540%2-3
Dust2LEO pick58%34-2563%44-26
InfernoSPA pick46%6-755%11-9
NukeLEO ban58%21-1549%17-18
AncientSPA ban46%18-2136%14-25
Each team's usual first ban: Leo Mirage · SPARTA Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
SPARTA59%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: SPARTA 55% toss-up · Inferno: SPARTA 58% · Cache: SPARTA 55% toss-upWhySPARTA hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesLeo 41%: 2-1 22%, 2-0 19% · SPARTA 59%: 2-0 32%, 2-1 27%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Leo 41%It’s nearly a coin-flip. SPARTA only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.59% SPARTA
Dust2
Leo45%SPARTA55%
34-25record44-26
58%win63%
53%CT win56%
53%T win54%
52%pistol51%
82%convert83%
Inferno
Leo42%SPARTA58%
6-7record11-9
46%win55%
48%CT win52%
54%T win49%
54%pistol60%
86%convert71%
Cache
Leo45%SPARTA55%
1-2record6-6
33%win50%
51%CT win50%
52%T win47%
50%pistol67%
100%convert88%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
LEOct
LEOt
SPAct
SPAt
LEOpistol
LEOconv
LEOeco
SPApistol
SPAconv
SPAeco
Dust2pool
53%315/596
53%327/622
56%368/662
54%420/773
52%61/118
82%50/61
18%10/57
51%71/140
83%59/71
30%21/69
Infernopool
48%74/153
54%61/112
52%112/214
49%92/189
54%14/26
86%12/14
33%4/12
60%24/40
71%17/24
19%3/16
Cachepool
51%18/35
52%13/25
50%62/123
47%57/121
50%3/6
100%3/3
33%1/3
67%16/24
88%14/16
0%0/8
Mirageban
53%69/131
36%35/98
57%255/449
42%173/411
50%11/22
82%9/11
9%1/11
40%34/84
79%27/34
22%11/50
Anubisban
42%150/353
47%194/410
56%28/50
37%22/60
45%33/74
82%27/33
17%7/41
50%5/10
60%3/5
40%2/5
Nukeban
57%213/374
49%181/367
58%215/371
41%149/367
57%41/72
80%33/41
13%4/31
54%38/70
76%29/38
31%10/32
Ancientban
50%193/385
47%184/394
44%185/420
42%145/346
32%25/78
88%22/25
8%4/52
44%34/78
76%26/34
14%6/43
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Leo 52%, SPARTA 54%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (83% vs 81%). Lose the pistol → SPARTA fight back to win the next round more often (26% vs 21%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/100 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 26 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 6 downvs QWENTRYDust2from 6 downvs ASTRALDust2from 5 downvs AimhausDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/103 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 103 maps they lost, 33 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs WWAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs UrsaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs PhantomAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs MisaDust2led 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16
SPARTA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i45/126 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 126 maps they won, 45 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs GenOneDust2from 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsAncientfrom 7 downvs LavkedInfernofrom 6 downvs ex-RUBYOverpassfrom 6 downvs GenOneOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i32/115 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 115 maps they lost, 32 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionOverpassled 8 · lost 10-13vs ex-Young NinjasDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs TDKDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GenOneDust2from 7 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs MOUZ NXTNuke19-17vs TDKDust217-19vs TDKOverpass16-14vs TDKDust213-16vs BIGAncient17-19