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Predictions / Falcons Force vs BERG · match preview
Falcons Force vs BERG: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
Falcons Force
World #159 · 13-19
VS
2026-09-09 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
BERG
World #219 · 7-12
60%40%
60%
1.542.27Market · 3 books
40%The call
Falcons Force are favoured: our model gives them 60% against BERG. Bookmakers lean Falcons Force at 60%. Firepower clearly favours Falcons Force.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Falcons ForcepullBERG
Team strength1463
145851/49 FAL
Track record13–19
7–1251/49 FAL
Recent formWLLLW
WLWLL56/44 BER
Roster rating1.05
1.0480/20 FAL
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 60% for Falcons Force (1.54 / 2.27) and we land at 60%, the same read. This read is 89% our own signal (71 maps of Falcons Force, 35 of BERG).
Bottom line: Falcons Force to beat BERG, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Falcons Force
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ENCE#1250-20-2
Falcons Force vs ENCE
Aug 22LMirage10-13Inferno11-13BERG vs ENCE
Aug 17LNuke5-13
AaB2-20-1
BERG vs AaB
Mar 23LInferno13-16Firepower
roster ratingsFalcons Force · avg 1.05 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Falcons Force vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFALBER
Dust2FAL ban25%2-6n/a0g
Falcons Force on Dust2
LBebop3–131mo agoL
Misa10–133mo agoL
MANA7–134mo agoL
SPARTA6–134mo agoW
G2 Ares13–104mo agoW
Famalicão13–34mo agoLMANA4–134mo agoLFamalicão12–164mo agoBERG on Dust2
no recent maps
CacheBER ban80%4-1n/a0g
Falcons Force on Cache
L
Endless Journey4–1314d agoW
Honvéd13–818d agoW
INOX Division13–111mo agoWMisa13–71mo agoWBebop13–61mo agoBERG on Cache
no recent maps
MirageFAL pick56%9-743%3-4
AncientBER pick40%6-944%4-5
NukeFAL ban0%0-930%3-7
AnubisBER ban50%2-225%1-3
Infernodecider38%5-875%3-1
Each team's usual first ban: Falcons Force Overpass · BERG Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
BERG55%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Falcons Force 61% · Ancient: BERG 54% toss-up · Inferno: BERG 67% clearWhyBERG hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesFalcons Force 45%: 2-0 28%, 2-1 17% · BERG 55%: 2-1 34%, 2-0 21%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Falcons Force 45%It’s nearly a coin-flip. BERG only lead because their Inferno is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.55% BERG
Mirage
Falcons Force61%BERG39%
9-7record3-4
56%win43%
54%CT win63%
52%T win34%
63%pistol50%
80%convert100%
Ancient
Falcons Force46%BERG54%
6-9record4-5
40%win44%
46%CT win56%
52%T win42%
60%pistol67%
78%convert75%
Inferno
Falcons Force33%BERG67%
5-8record3-1
38%win75%
54%CT win69%
47%T win60%
38%pistol75%
60%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
FALct
FALt
BERct
BERt
FALpistol
FALconv
FALeco
BERpistol
BERconv
BEReco
Miragepool
54%87/161
52%85/162
63%53/84
34%20/58
63%20/32
80%16/20
8%1/12
50%7/14
100%7/7
43%3/7
Ancientpool
46%71/154
52%88/170
56%44/78
42%45/106
60%18/30
78%14/18
36%4/11
67%12/18
75%9/12
0%0/6
Infernopool
54%72/133
47%70/150
69%22/32
60%29/48
38%10/26
60%6/10
38%6/16
75%6/8
100%6/6
50%1/2
Dust2ban
46%34/74
40%34/84
n/a
n/a
56%9/16
56%5/9
14%1/7
n/a
n/a
n/a
Cacheban
70%31/44
44%25/57
n/a
n/a
70%7/10
86%6/7
0%0/3
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
40%43/107
38%32/85
44%46/105
40%36/89
44%8/18
75%6/8
0%0/10
55%11/20
73%8/11
11%1/9
Anubisban
53%21/40
46%22/48
46%22/48
28%7/25
38%3/8
100%3/3
0%0/5
13%1/8
100%1/1
14%1/7
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
BERG wins more pistol rounds: 63% vs 55%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → BERG usually win the next round too (88% vs 75%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (28% vs 27%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Falcons Force
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/28 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 28 maps they won, 8 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs VexarAnubisfrom 6 downvs ZOTIXAncientfrom 6 downvs BebopCachefrom 4 downvs MisaCachefrom 4 downvs B8Miragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/42 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 16 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs SharksAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs OLDBOYS PLNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs FamalicãoDust2led 5 · lost 12-16vs fnaticAnubisled 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarAnubisfrom 6 down · won 22-20
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs JiJieHaoInferno20-22vs FamalicãoDust212-16vs fnaticAnubis13-16vs AMAncient13-16vs SPARTAAncient16-19
BERG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/14 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 14 maps they won, 4 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 downvs WBTAncientfrom 4 downvs SINQU REHTIAnubisfrom 3 downvs PrivateerAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/21 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 7 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Mai TaiMirageled 5 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 4 · lost 14-16vs los kogutosMirageled 3 · lost 7-13vs HAVUAncientled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs AaBInferno13-16vs los kogutosAncient16-13vs mellrenMirage14-16vs PrivateerNuke16-12