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Predictions / NAVI Junior vs OLDBOYS PL · match preview
NAVI Junior vs OLDBOYS PL: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
NAVI Junior
World #121 · 10-11
VS
2026-09-09 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
OLDBOYS PL
World #– · 12-5
49%51%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 49–51. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours OLDBOYS PL, record slightly favours OLDBOYS PL, firepower clearly favours NAVI Junior.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NAVI JuniorpullOLDBOYS PL
Team strength1487
156065/35 OLD
Track record10–11
12–566/34 OLD
Recent formWWLLW
WLWWW52/48 OLD
Roster rating1.1
1.1579/21 NAV
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 91% our own signal (45 maps of NAVI Junior, 42 of OLDBOYS PL).
Bottom line: OLDBOYS PL to beat NAVI Junior, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
NAVI Junior
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BIG Academy#1580-20-2
NAVI Junior vs BIG Academy
Jan 20LAncient9-13Overpass6-13OLDBOYS PL vs BIG Academy
Apr 27LMirage4-13Dust29-13
MASONIC#2041-22-0
NAVI Junior vs MASONIC
Jan 19LOverpass3-13Mirage13-9Inferno3-13OLDBOYS PL vs MASONIC
Apr 22WOverpass13-8Anubis13-2Firepower
roster ratingsNAVI Junior · avg 1.1 · top +0.16
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NAVI Junior vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNAVOLD
NukeNAV ban20%1-489%8-1
InfernoOLD ban33%2-4100%1-0
NAVI Junior on Inferno
L
eSuba14–161mo agoL
Prestige6–133mo agoL
ALGO6–134mo agoW
HEROIC Academy13–76mo agoW
LPH13–106mo agoLMASONIC3–138mo agoOLDBOYS PL on Inferno
W
ROUNDS13–103mo agoMirageNAV pick88%7-156%5-4
AncientOLD pick33%3-667%6-3
CacheNAV bann/a0gn/a0g
NAVI Junior on Cache
no recent maps
OLDBOYS PL on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2OLD ban60%3-233%2-4
Anubisdecider29%2-567%4-2
Each team's usual first ban: NAVI Junior Cache · OLDBOYS PL Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
OLDBOYS PL66%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: NAVI Junior 77% clear · Ancient: OLDBOYS PL 75% clear · Anubis: OLDBOYS PL 77% clearWhyOLDBOYS PL hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNAVI Junior 34%: 2-0 19%, 2-1 15% · OLDBOYS PL 66%: 2-1 49%, 2-0 17%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
NAVI Junior 34%OLDBOYS PL are the clearer side here: the most likely result is OLDBOYS PL 2-1.66% OLDBOYS PL
Mirage
NAVI Junior77%OLDBOYS PL23%
7-1record5-4
88%win56%
66%CT win58%
52%T win41%
63%pistol56%
80%convert90%
Ancient
NAVI Junior25%OLDBOYS PL75%
3-6record6-3
33%win67%
42%CT win57%
51%T win51%
39%pistol50%
71%convert89%
Anubis
NAVI Junior23%OLDBOYS PL77%
2-5record4-2
29%win67%
46%CT win49%
47%T win61%
57%pistol25%
75%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NAVct
NAVt
OLDct
OLDt
NAVpistol
NAVconv
NAVeco
OLDpistol
OLDconv
OLDeco
Miragepool
66%50/76
52%44/85
58%56/97
41%42/103
63%10/16
80%8/10
33%2/6
56%10/18
90%9/10
13%1/8
Ancientpool
42%39/93
51%44/86
57%53/93
51%48/94
39%7/18
71%5/7
18%2/11
50%9/18
89%8/9
11%1/9
Anubispool
46%32/69
47%37/78
49%35/72
61%34/56
57%8/14
75%6/8
33%2/6
25%3/12
100%3/3
11%1/9
Nukeban
40%21/53
46%25/54
80%63/79
45%48/107
50%5/10
60%3/5
0%0/5
61%11/18
100%11/11
14%1/7
Infernoban
35%19/55
52%34/66
50%6/12
64%7/11
33%4/12
75%3/4
25%2/8
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2ban
60%32/53
63%24/38
53%38/72
41%27/66
20%2/10
100%2/2
50%4/8
75%9/12
100%9/9
33%1/3
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
NAVI Junior wins more pistol rounds: 52% vs 46%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → OLDBOYS PL usually win the next round too (91% vs 76%). Lose the pistol → NAVI Junior fight back to win the next round more often (26% vs 12%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NAVI Junior
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/18 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 18 maps they won, 6 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs LPHInfernofrom 5 downvs GamersLabNukefrom 5 downvs PrestigeMiragefrom 4 downvs GamersLabMiragefrom 4 downvs MAYBEAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/24 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 24 maps they lost, 5 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs JamAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs JamNukeled 4 · lost 14-16vs UNiTYAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs GamersLabDust2led 3 · lost 12-16vs eSubaInfernoled 3 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPHInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs JamAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs ASTRALNuke15-19vs GamersLabDust212-16vs GamersLabMirage16-12vs eSubaInferno14-16vs JamNuke14-16
OLDBOYS PL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/27 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 27 maps they won, 10 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs DONSTUNukefrom 8 downvs Falcons ForceNukefrom 6 downvs ArchAnubisfrom 5 downvs WBT AcademyNukefrom 5 downvs EnjoyAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/15 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 15 maps they lost, 6 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs ArchDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs QWENTRYAncientled 5 · lost 17-19vs ArchDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs BIG AcademyDust2led 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs DONSTUNukefrom 8 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs Aurora Young BludMirage16-14vs QWENTRYAncient17-19vs Rune EatersAncient16-14vs DONSTUNuke16-12vs ArchMirage14-16