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Predictions / NEXORA vs ROUNDS · match preview
NEXORA vs ROUNDS: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
NEX
NEXORA
World #– · 0-1
VS
2026-09-09 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
ROUNDS
World #212 · 6-14
53%47%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours NEXORA, record slightly favours ROUNDS, form clearly favours ROUNDS, firepower clearly favours ROUNDS.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NEXORApullROUNDS
Team strength1482
141464/36 NEX
Track record0–1
6–1460/40 ROU
Recent formL
LLWLL71/29 ROU
Roster rating0.87
0.9890/10 ROU
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 44% our own signal (2 maps of NEXORA, 37 of ROUNDS; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: NEXORA to beat ROUNDS, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
NEXORA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsNEXORA · avg 0.87 · top +0.15
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NEXORA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEXROU
InfernoNEX bann/a0g40%2-3
NEXORA on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2ROU bann/a0g0%0-3
NEXORA on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageNEX pick0%0-114%1-6
NukeROU pickn/a0g20%2-8
NEXORA on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientNEX ban0%0-150%3-3
NEXORA on Ancient
L
Drama7–132d agoAnubisROU bann/a0gn/a0g
NEXORA on Anubis
no recent maps
ROUNDS on Anubis
no recent maps
Cachedecidern/a0g0%0-2
NEXORA on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: NEXORA Inferno · ROUNDS Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
NEXORA51%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: NEXORA 52% toss-up · Nuke: NEXORA 50% toss-up · Cache: NEXORA 50% toss-upWhyNEXORA hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNEXORA 51%: 2-0 26%, 2-1 25% · ROUNDS 49%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 24%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
NEXORA 51%It’s nearly a coin-flip. NEXORA only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.49% ROUNDS
Mirage
NEXORA52%ROUNDS48%
0-1record1-6
0%win14%
17%CT win33%
33%T win35%
0%pistol14%
–convert100%
Nuke
NEXORA50%ROUNDS50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record2-8
–win20%
–CT win53%
–T win42%
–pistol60%
–convert83%
Cache
NEXORA50%ROUNDS50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record0-2
–win0%
–CT win50%
–T win21%
–pistol50%
–convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NEXct
NEXt
ROUct
ROUt
NEXpistol
NEXconv
NEXeco
ROUpistol
ROUconv
ROUeco
Miragepool
17%1/6
33%4/12
33%28/84
35%18/52
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
14%2/14
100%2/2
33%4/12
Nukepool
n/a
n/a
53%55/103
42%47/113
n/a
n/a
n/a
60%12/20
83%10/12
25%2/8
Cachepool
n/a
n/a
50%7/14
21%5/24
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%2/4
100%2/2
50%1/2
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
46%22/48
51%28/55
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%5/10
80%4/5
20%1/5
Dust2ban
n/a
n/a
25%7/28
25%6/24
n/a
n/a
n/a
33%2/6
0%0/2
0%0/4
Ancientban
42%5/12
25%2/8
44%29/66
52%30/58
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
58%7/12
71%5/7
20%1/5
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ROUNDS wins more pistol rounds: 42% vs 0%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NEXORA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/2 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni1 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
ROUNDS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/8 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 3 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs VexarNukefrom 5 downvs SAWMiragefrom 4 downvs ENRAGEAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/25 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 11 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BC.GameCacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs TrainwrecksNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs HAVUNukeled 4 · lost 13-16vs RaccoonsMirageled 4 · lost 7-13vs RaccoonsNukeled 4 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarNukefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BC.GameCacheled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs SAWMirage19-17vs TrainwrecksNuke14-16vs HAVUNuke13-16vs RaccoonsNuke16-19