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Predictions / LAG vs regain · match preview
LAG vs regain: CS2 match prediction · NSTLGA League Season 2
LAG
World #88 · 46-24
VS
2026-09-11 01:00 UTC
NSTLGA League Season 2 · Best of 3
regain
World #130 · 30-22
66%34%
The call
LAG are favoured: our model gives them 66% against regain. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours LAG, record slightly favours LAG, firepower clearly favours LAG.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LAGpullregain
Team strength1587
154559/41 LAG
Track record46–24
30–2260/40 LAG
Recent formWLWWW
WWLLL54/46 LAG
Roster rating1.1
1.1291/9 LAG
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (159 maps of LAG, 117 of regain).
Bottom line: LAG to beat regain, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
LAG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
M80#310-40-2
regain vs M80
Jan 10LAncient1-13Mirage6-13
Wildcard#393-50-2
SportsBetExpert#808-80-2
LAG vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 31WAnubis16-13Nuke6-13Mirage7-13Dust213-2Aug 1LInferno6-13Dust213-9Nuke4-13May 31LNuke16-12Anubis11-13Inferno9-13+2 earlier meetings
regain vs SportsBetExpert
Feb 5LInferno7-13Dust27-13
Voca#810-20-6
Marsborne#1080-62-5
Without a Roof#1612-00-1
LAG vs Without a Roof
Aug 30WAncient13-6Nuke13-7regain vs Without a Roof
Sep 4LMirage6-13
Chicken Coop#1744-05-3
NuTorious#1802-02-1
LAG vs NuTorious
Mar 29WNuke13-7Inferno13-6regain vs NuTorious
Sep 6WMirage13-16Inferno13-6Ancient19-16Firepower
roster ratingsLAG · avg 1.1 · top +0.05
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, LAG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
regain habitually bans Nuke, LAG's strongest maps (Dust2, Inferno, Nuke, Ancient all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 50/52), not an opponent read, so expect LAG to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapLAGREG
AnubisLAG ban44%4-583%5-1
NukeREG ban70%16-7n/a0g
InfernoLAG pick64%29-1660%18-12
AncientREG pick62%16-1056%14-11
MirageLAG ban56%10-838%11-18
Dust2REG ban75%21-755%11-9
Cachedecidern/a0g100%1-0
LAG on Cache
no recent maps
regain on Cache
WMarsborne13–52mo agoEach team's usual first ban: LAG Anubis · regain Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
LAG55%to win the seriesiMap edgesInferno: LAG 55% toss-up · Ancient: LAG 55% toss-up · Cache: LAG 50% toss-upWhyLAG hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesLAG 55%: 2-0 30%, 2-1 25% · regain 45%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 20%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
LAG 55%It’s nearly a coin-flip. LAG only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.45% regain
Inferno
LAG55%regain45%
29-16record18-12
64%win60%
55%CT win52%
56%T win56%
44%pistol42%
85%convert68%
Ancient
LAG55%regain45%
16-10record14-11
62%win56%
51%CT win51%
59%T win51%
44%pistol50%
87%convert80%
Cache
LAG50%regain50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record1-0
–win100%
–CT win100%
–T win58%
–pistol100%
–convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
LAGct
LAGt
REGct
REGt
LAGpistol
LAGconv
LAGeco
REGpistol
REGconv
REGeco
Infernopool
55%224/407
56%293/521
52%137/264
56%200/355
44%40/90
85%34/40
34%17/50
42%25/60
68%17/25
9%3/35
Ancientpool
51%140/277
59%136/230
51%126/246
51%128/249
44%23/52
87%20/23
28%8/29
50%25/50
80%20/25
8%2/25
Cachepool
n/a
n/a
100%6/6
58%7/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
100%2/2
100%2/2
n/a
Anubisban
49%45/91
49%53/108
55%31/56
68%43/63
39%7/18
100%7/7
18%2/11
67%8/12
88%7/8
0%0/4
Nukeban
59%148/249
53%121/227
n/a
n/a
54%25/46
92%23/25
29%6/21
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
58%114/196
47%78/167
50%150/299
46%138/303
31%11/36
82%9/11
32%8/25
48%28/58
89%25/28
17%5/30
Dust2ban
57%165/289
58%158/271
50%115/231
47%82/174
55%31/56
94%29/31
32%8/25
50%20/40
90%18/20
5%1/20
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (LAG 44%, regain 46%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → LAG usually win the next round too (86% vs 75%). Lose the pistol → LAG fight back to win the next round more often (32% vs 8%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
LAG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/99 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 35 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs mouseDust2from 8 downvs Wanted GoonsDust2from 6 downvs SurgeDust2from 6 downvs Chicken CoopNukefrom 5 downvs FarmVilleInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/58 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 58 maps they lost, 23 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19vs BOSSNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs BOSSNukeled 6 · lost 17-19vs WildcardMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs Fisher CollegeMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs mouseDust2from 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs WildcardInferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno19-16vs BOSSNuke17-19vs mouseDust216-14vs BOSSInferno16-14
regain
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/63 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 21 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 downvs FarmVilleAncientfrom 6 downvs ZomblersInfernofrom 5 downvs AkimboInfernofrom 5 downvs BlitzkriegDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/54 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 54 maps they lost, 18 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Club 333Infernoled 7 · lost 13-16vs SkylineAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs MarsborneMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FarmVilleInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs BlitzkriegDust216-12vs Outfit 49Dust222-19vs ZomblersDust221-25vs F5Inferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno16-19