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Predictions / Strael Bora vs Fire Flux · match preview
Strael Bora vs Fire Flux: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6
Strael Bora
World #202 · 6-11
VS
2026-09-07 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6 · Best of 3
Fire Flux
World #143 · 16-17
33%67%
15%
6.31.08Market · 2 books
85%The call
Fire Flux are favoured: our model gives them 67% against Strael Bora. Bookmakers lean Fire Flux at 85%. Strength clearly favours Fire Flux, record slightly favours Fire Flux, form clearly favours Fire Flux, firepower slightly favours Strael Bora, head-to-head clearly favours Fire Flux.
Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Strael BorapullFire Flux
Team strength1414
151270/30 FIR
Track record6–11
16–1768/32 FIR
Recent formLLLLL
LWLWL80/20 FIR
Roster rating1.05
1.0864/36 STR
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 FIR
Bookmakers imply 15% for Strael Bora (6.3 / 1.08); we land 18 points higher at 33%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 89% our own signal (34 maps of Strael Bora, 85 of Fire Flux). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Fire Flux leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Fire Flux to beat Strael Bora, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Strael Bora
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Inner Circle Academy#1160-21-2
Strael Bora vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 30LDust28-13Ancient12-16Fire Flux vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 31LCache19-17Nuke2-13Dust214-16
Misa#1280-22-0
Strael Bora vs Misa
Aug 18LAnubis9-13Inferno7-13Fire Flux vs Misa
Apr 14WMirage13-5Inferno13-7Firepower
roster ratingsStrael Bora · avg 1.05 · top +0.25
Fire Flux · avg 1.08 · top +0.15
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 85 | 1.21 | 86 | 74.6% | 59% | 1.23 |
| zemix | 85 | 0.93 | 77.2 | 72% | 56% | 1.13 |
| xEternaLxx | 85 | 1.01 | 70.8 | 71.2% | 58% | 1.09 |
| zer0UKY | 85 | 1.06 | 63.1 | 70.6% | 36% | 1 |
| Cizzx | 85 | 0.87 | 67.7 | 70.9% | 55% | 0.97 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Strael Bora vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSTRFIR
MirageSTR bann/a0g45%5-6
Strael Bora on Mirage
no recent maps
AncientFIR ban50%4-429%2-5
NukeSTR pick44%4-550%4-4
AnubisFIR pick17%1-567%12-6
Dust2STR ban0%0-345%9-11
CacheFIR bann/a0g50%4-4
Strael Bora on Cache
no recent maps
Infernodecider29%2-562%8-5
Each team's usual first ban: Strael Bora Mirage · Fire Flux Overpass.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Fire Flux81%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Fire Flux 55% toss-up · Anubis: Fire Flux 85% clear · Inferno: Fire Flux 75% clearWhyFire Flux hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesStrael Bora 19%: 2-1 12%, 2-0 7% · Fire Flux 81%: 2-0 46%, 2-1 35%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Strael Bora 19%Fire Flux are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Fire Flux 2-0.81% Fire Flux
Nuke
Strael Bora45%Fire Flux55%
4-5record4-4
44%win50%
49%CT win44%
42%T win46%
39%pistol50%
71%convert88%
Anubis
Strael Bora15%Fire Flux85%
1-5record12-6
17%win67%
44%CT win55%
51%T win52%
42%pistol67%
80%convert63%
Inferno
Strael Bora25%Fire Flux75%
2-5record8-5
29%win62%
52%CT win50%
39%T win56%
36%pistol58%
80%convert80%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
STRct
STRt
FIRct
FIRt
STRpistol
STRconv
STReco
FIRpistol
FIRconv
FIReco
Nukepool
49%44/89
42%43/103
44%39/89
46%29/63
39%7/18
71%5/7
27%3/11
50%8/16
88%7/8
0%0/8
Anubispool
44%27/62
51%33/65
55%103/188
52%103/197
42%5/12
80%4/5
0%0/7
67%24/36
63%15/24
8%1/12
Infernopool
52%36/69
39%24/62
50%70/139
56%72/128
36%5/14
80%4/5
33%3/9
58%15/26
80%12/15
9%1/11
Mirageban
n/a
n/a
46%61/132
48%46/96
n/a
n/a
n/a
64%14/22
100%14/14
25%2/8
Ancientban
49%42/85
61%52/85
48%38/80
38%25/66
75%12/16
92%11/12
75%3/4
36%5/14
80%4/5
11%1/9
Dust2ban
22%8/36
21%3/14
52%97/187
50%111/223
0%0/6
n/a
33%2/6
60%24/40
96%23/24
13%2/16
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
41%35/86
52%50/96
n/a
n/a
n/a
56%9/16
100%9/9
0%0/7
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Fire Flux wins more pistol rounds: 60% vs 39%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Strael Bora usually win the next round too (76% vs 72%). Lose the pistol → Strael Bora fight back to win the next round more often (22% vs 6%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Strael Bora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/11 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 3 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Sashi AcademyNukefrom 5 downvs Eternal 21Nukefrom 4 downvs Eternal 21Ancientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/23 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 5 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FortressAncientled 8 · lost 14-16vs HAVUInfernoled 5 · lost 10-13vs Sashi AcademyAncientled 3 · lost 16-19vs Eternal 21Infernoled 3 · lost 10-13vs Fire FluxAnubisled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Sashi AcademyNukefrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FortressAncientled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs Sashi AcademyAncient16-19vs FortressAncient14-16vs Julie&CieAnubis20-22vs The Last ResortNuke17-19vs Inner Circle AcademyAncient12-16
Fire Flux
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/44 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 44 maps they won, 16 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs PrivateerNukefrom 8 downvs PCIFICDust2from 7 downvs BRUTEMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 6 downvs BOJONGAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/41 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 41 maps they lost, 18 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Inner Circle AcademyDust2led 5 · lost 14-16vs BOJONGAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs benched godsDust2led 4 · lost 17-19vs bankaPEPSIInfernoled 4 · lost 11-13vs ALGONukeled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrivateerNukefrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Inner Circle AcademyDust2led 5 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs PalaceNuke16-13vs benched godsDust217-19vs BRUTEMirage16-12vs BASEMENT BOYSCache17-19vs GUESSCache16-14