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Predictions / mellren vs BERG · match preview
mellren vs BERG: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6
mellren
World #114 · 10-4
VS
2026-09-07 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · Best of 3
BERG
World #219 · 7-12
76%24%
52%
1.771.92Market · 2 books
48%The call · high confidence
mellren are favoured: our model gives them 76% against BERG. Bookmakers lean mellren at 52%. Strength clearly favours mellren, record clearly favours mellren, firepower clearly favours mellren, head-to-head clearly favours mellren.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
mellrenpullBERG
Team strength1559
145871/29 MEL
Track record10–4
7–1272/28 MEL
Recent formLWWWW
WLWLL55/45 MEL
Roster rating1.13
1.0488/12 MEL
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 MEL
Bookmakers imply 52% for mellren (1.77 / 1.92); we land 24 points higher at 76%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 88% our own signal (31 maps of mellren, 35 of BERG). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: mellren leads 1–0.
Bottom line: mellren to beat BERG, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
mellren
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
WBT#1194-11-2
HAVU#1200-20-2
mellren vs HAVU
Sep 6LMirage4-13Nuke9-13BERG vs HAVU
Aug 16LMirage6-13Ancient11-13Firepower
roster ratingsmellren · avg 1.13 · top +0.14
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lollipop21k | 25 | 1.19 | 95.9 | 77.9% | 54% | 1.27 |
| shootic | 31 | 1.11 | 78.3 | 75% | 60% | 1.21 |
| menddel | 29 | 1.07 | 71.2 | 70.7% | 52% | 1.11 |
| mdl | 31 | 0.97 | 68.3 | 73% | 47% | 1.06 |
| Maksilvl | 31 | 0.88 | 67.1 | 72.8% | 56% | 0.99 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, mellren vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMELBER
NukeMEL ban0%0-130%3-7
Dust2BER ban43%3-4n/a0g
mellren on Dust2
LWBT11–1315d agoW
Bushido Wildcats13–1118d agoW
Honvéd13–1122d agoL
Spirit Academy7–131mo agoW
LPH13–62mo agoLLPH9–132mo agoL
AM14–166mo agoBERG on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageMEL pick88%7-143%3-4
AncientBER pick57%4-344%4-5
CacheMEL bann/a0gn/a0g
mellren on Cache
no recent maps
BERG on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisBER ban100%3-025%1-3
Infernodecider60%3-275%3-1
Each team's usual first ban: mellren Cache · BERG Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
mellren69%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: mellren 83% clear · Ancient: mellren 60% · Inferno: BERG 57%Whymellren hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesmellren 69%: 2-0 50%, 2-1 19% · BERG 31%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 7%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
mellren 69%mellren are the clearer side here: the most likely result is mellren 2-0.31% BERG
Mirage
mellren83%BERG17%
7-1record3-4
88%win43%
54%CT win63%
51%T win34%
50%pistol50%
63%convert100%
Ancient
mellren60%BERG40%
4-3record4-5
57%win44%
44%CT win56%
59%T win42%
29%pistol67%
100%convert75%
Inferno
mellren43%BERG57%
3-2record3-1
60%win75%
45%CT win69%
54%T win60%
50%pistol75%
80%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MELct
MELt
BERct
BERt
MELpistol
MELconv
MELeco
BERpistol
BERconv
BEReco
Miragepool
54%45/84
51%47/93
63%53/84
34%20/58
50%8/16
63%5/8
13%1/8
50%7/14
100%7/7
43%3/7
Ancientpool
44%31/71
59%43/73
56%44/78
42%45/106
29%4/14
100%4/4
0%0/10
67%12/18
75%9/12
0%0/6
Infernopool
45%23/51
54%28/52
69%22/32
60%29/48
50%5/10
80%4/5
0%0/5
75%6/8
100%6/6
50%1/2
Nukeban
58%7/12
20%2/10
44%46/105
40%36/89
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
55%11/20
73%8/11
11%1/9
Dust2ban
52%38/73
48%40/84
n/a
n/a
21%3/14
100%3/3
27%3/11
n/a
n/a
n/a
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
67%24/36
54%15/28
46%22/48
28%7/25
33%2/6
100%2/2
75%3/4
13%1/8
100%1/1
14%1/7
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
BERG wins more pistol rounds: 63% vs 43%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → BERG usually win the next round too (88% vs 76%). Lose the pistol → BERG fight back to win the next round more often (27% vs 4%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
mellren
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/20 (45%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 20 maps they won, 9 (45%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 45% of their wins were comebacks, not 45% of all games.vs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs LPHInfernofrom 4 downvs BERGMiragefrom 4 downvs PUREInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/11 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 11 maps they lost, 3 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs PUREAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini4.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs AMDust214-16vs TrickstersMirage19-16vs TrickstersAncient16-14vs Bushido WildcatsMirage16-12vs BERGMirage16-14
BERG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/14 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 14 maps they won, 4 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 downvs WBTAncientfrom 4 downvs SINQU REHTIAnubisfrom 3 downvs PrivateerAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/21 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 7 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Mai TaiMirageled 5 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 4 · lost 14-16vs los kogutosMirageled 3 · lost 7-13vs HAVUAncientled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs AaBInferno13-16vs los kogutosAncient16-13vs mellrenMirage14-16vs PrivateerNuke16-12