Matches / Upcoming / mellren vs BERG
mellren vs BERG: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6
mellren
World #114 · 10-4
VS
2026-09-07 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · Best of 3
BERG
World #219 · 7-12
76%24%
52%
1.771.92Market · 2 books
48%The call · high confidence
mellren are favoured: our model gives them 76% against BERG. Bookmakers lean mellren at 52%. Strength clearly favours mellren, record clearly favours mellren, firepower clearly favours mellren, head-to-head clearly favours mellren.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Inferno
Recent form
mellren
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
WBT#1194-11-2
HAVU#1200-20-2
mellren vs HAVU
Sep 6LMirage4-13Nuke9-13BERG vs HAVU
Aug 16LMirage6-13Ancient11-13Firepower
roster ratingsmellren · avg 1.13 · top +0.14
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lollipop21k | 25 | 1.19 | 95.9 | 77.9% | 54% | 1.27 |
| shootic | 31 | 1.11 | 78.3 | 75% | 60% | 1.21 |
| menddel | 29 | 1.07 | 71.2 | 70.7% | 52% | 1.11 |
| mdl | 31 | 0.97 | 68.3 | 73% | 47% | 1.06 |
| Maksilvl | 31 | 0.88 | 67.1 | 72.8% | 56% | 0.99 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, mellren vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMELBER
NukeMEL ban0%0-130%3-7
Dust2BER ban43%3-4n/a0g
mellren on Dust2
LWBT11–1315d agoW
Bushido Wildcats13–1118d agoW
Honvéd13–1122d agoL
Spirit Academy7–131mo agoW
LPH13–62mo agoLLPH9–132mo agoL
AM14–166mo agoBERG on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageMEL pick88%7-143%3-4
AncientBER pick57%4-344%4-5
CacheMEL bann/a0gn/a0g
mellren on Cache
no recent maps
BERG on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisBER ban100%3-025%1-3
Infernodecider60%3-275%3-1
Each team's usual first ban: mellren Cache · BERG Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
mellren69%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: mellren 83% clear · Ancient: mellren 60% · Inferno: BERG 57%Whymellren hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesmellren 69%: 2-0 50%, 2-1 19% · BERG 31%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 7%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
mellren 69%mellren are the clearer side here: the most likely result is mellren 2-0.31% BERG
Mirage
mellren83%BERG17%
7-1record3-4
88%win43%
54%CT win63%
51%T win34%
50%pistol50%
63%convert100%
Ancient
mellren60%BERG40%
4-3record4-5
57%win44%
44%CT win56%
59%T win42%
29%pistol67%
100%convert75%
Inferno
mellren43%BERG57%
3-2record3-1
60%win75%
45%CT win69%
54%T win60%
50%pistol75%
80%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MELct
MELt
BERct
BERt
MELpistol
MELconv
MELeco
BERpistol
BERconv
BEReco
Miragepool
54%45/84
51%47/93
63%53/84
34%20/58
50%8/16
63%5/8
13%1/8
50%7/14
100%7/7
43%3/7
Ancientpool
44%31/71
59%43/73
56%44/78
42%45/106
29%4/14
100%4/4
0%0/10
67%12/18
75%9/12
0%0/6
Infernopool
45%23/51
54%28/52
69%22/32
60%29/48
50%5/10
80%4/5
0%0/5
75%6/8
100%6/6
50%1/2
Nukeban
58%7/12
20%2/10
44%46/105
40%36/89
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
55%11/20
73%8/11
11%1/9
Dust2ban
52%38/73
48%40/84
n/a
n/a
21%3/14
100%3/3
27%3/11
n/a
n/a
n/a
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
67%24/36
54%15/28
46%22/48
28%7/25
33%2/6
100%2/2
75%3/4
13%1/8
100%1/1
14%1/7
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
BERG wins more pistol rounds: 63% vs 43%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → BERG usually win the next round too (88% vs 76%). Lose the pistol → BERG fight back to win the next round more often (27% vs 4%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
mellren
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/20 (45%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 20 maps they won, 9 (45%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 45% of their wins were comebacks, not 45% of all games.vs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs LPHInfernofrom 4 downvs BERGMiragefrom 4 downvs PUREInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/11 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 11 maps they lost, 3 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs PUREAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TrickstersMiragefrom 6 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini4.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs AMDust214-16vs TrickstersMirage19-16vs TrickstersAncient16-14vs Bushido WildcatsMirage16-12vs BERGMirage16-14
BERG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/14 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 14 maps they won, 4 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 downvs WBTAncientfrom 4 downvs SINQU REHTIAnubisfrom 3 downvs PrivateerAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/21 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 7 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Mai TaiMirageled 5 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 4 · lost 14-16vs los kogutosMirageled 3 · lost 7-13vs HAVUAncientled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs AaBInferno13-16vs los kogutosAncient16-13vs mellrenMirage14-16vs PrivateerNuke16-12
mellren vs BERG FAQ
Who is favored to win mellren vs BERG?
mellren are favored with a 76% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for mellren vs BERG?
Bookmakers price mellren at 1.77 and BERG at 1.92 (implied 52% vs 48%).
When do mellren and BERG play?
mellren vs BERG is scheduled for 2026-09-07 13:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6.