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Predictions / Legacy vs magic · match preview
Legacy vs magic: CS2 match prediction · FISSURE Playground 3
Legacy
World #7 · 37-23
VS
2026-09-08 03:00 UTC
FISSURE Playground 3 · Best of 3 · ★★
magic
World #20 · 43-21
59%41%
71%
1.313.24Market · 15 books
29%The call
Legacy are favoured: our model gives them 59% against magic. Bookmakers lean Legacy at 71%. Every factor is level between the two sides.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Legacypullmagic
Team strength1696
166656/44 LEG
Track record37–23
43–2153/47 MAG
Recent formLLWWL
LWLWL53/47 MAG
Roster rating1.14
1.1453/47 MAG
Bookmakers imply 71% for Legacy (1.31 / 3.24); we land 12 points lower at 59%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (141 maps of Legacy, 150 of magic).
Bottom line: Legacy to beat magic, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Legacy
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Falcons#26-50-2
Legacy vs Falcons
Aug 29LMirage6-13Ancient13-10Dust26-13Aug 21WMirage13-7Dust213-10May 24WNuke11-13Ancient13-9Mirage13-6Dust213-6+1 earlier meeting
magic vs Falcons
May 16LAncient7-13Dust25-13
MOUZ#51-40-2
magic vs MOUZ
May 17LMirage2-13Inferno7-13
FUT#62-21-2
magic vs FUT
Aug 19LAncient13-9Anubis7-13Mirage8-13
9z#117-54-2
FaZe#120-22-1
Legacy vs FaZe
Aug 13LCache6-13Mirage8-13magic vs FaZe
May 28WMirage4-13Dust213-11Overpass13-10
The MongolZ#142-10-3
Legacy vs The MongolZ
May 22WInferno13-11Mirage10-13Nuke13-10
Inner Circle#242-10-2
Legacy vs Inner Circle
Apr 5WAncient11-13Nuke13-4Mirage13-9magic vs Inner Circle
Jul 10LDust24-13Ancient6-13
Ninjas in Pyjamas#263-15-2
magic vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 26WAncient13-9Anubis13-11May 30LAnubis11-13Ancient13-6Mirage11-13May 29WAncient13-9Mirage13-2Firepower
roster ratingsLegacy · avg 1.14 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Legacy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLEGMAG
AnubisLEG ban50%1-167%10-5
NukeMAG ban52%11-10n/a0g
Legacy on Nuke
L
Vitality14–168d agoW
FURIA13–915d agoW
MIBR13–1122d agoLMOUZ6–133mo agoLMIBR8–133mo agoLFalcons11–134mo agoWThe MongolZ13–104mo agoW
NRG13–104mo agomagic on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageLEG pick75%18-656%20-16
AncientMAG pick50%13-1368%25-12
CacheLEG ban50%1-183%5-1
Dust2MAG ban59%20-1457%16-12
Infernodecider68%17-867%10-5
Each team's usual first ban: Legacy Anubis · magic Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Legacy52%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Legacy 69% clear · Ancient: magic 67% clear · Inferno: Legacy 52% toss-upWhyLegacy hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesLegacy 52%: 2-1 29%, 2-0 23% · magic 48%: 2-1 27%, 2-0 21%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Legacy 52%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Legacy only lead because their Mirage is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.48% magic
Mirage
Legacy69%magic31%
18-6record20-16
75%win56%
64%CT win59%
52%T win45%
52%pistol50%
84%convert75%
Ancient
Legacy33%magic67%
13-13record25-12
50%win68%
52%CT win49%
56%T win59%
58%pistol46%
87%convert88%
Inferno
Legacy52%magic48%
17-8record10-5
68%win67%
54%CT win58%
52%T win44%
48%pistol53%
88%convert94%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
LEGct
LEGt
MAGct
MAGt
LEGpistol
LEGconv
LEGeco
MAGpistol
MAGconv
MAGeco
Miragepool
64%139/218
52%134/260
59%187/318
45%176/387
52%25/48
84%21/25
26%6/23
50%36/72
75%27/36
28%10/36
Ancientpool
52%141/272
56%151/272
49%159/323
59%256/434
58%30/52
87%26/30
18%4/22
46%34/74
88%30/34
25%10/40
Infernopool
54%137/256
52%140/268
58%92/158
44%70/158
48%24/50
88%21/24
23%6/26
53%16/30
94%15/16
29%4/14
Anubisban
63%15/24
38%9/24
59%75/128
59%103/174
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
67%20/30
90%18/20
40%4/10
Nukeban
63%154/245
38%67/178
n/a
n/a
48%20/42
70%14/20
23%5/22
n/a
n/a
n/a
Cacheban
46%11/24
62%8/13
56%40/72
53%35/66
75%3/4
67%2/3
100%1/1
42%5/12
100%5/5
43%3/7
Dust2ban
54%188/349
50%174/347
56%150/266
45%135/299
56%38/68
74%28/38
13%4/30
45%25/56
63%15/24
26%8/31
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Legacy wins more pistol rounds: 53% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (86% vs 84%). Lose the pistol → magic fight back to win the next round more often (27% vs 23%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Legacy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/85 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 85 maps they won, 29 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs MIBRMiragefrom 7 downvs AuroraOverpassfrom 6 downvs The MongolZInfernofrom 6 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasAncientfrom 5 downvs G2Infernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/56 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 16 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BC.GameOverpassled 9 · lost 13-16vs VitalityNukeled 8 · lost 14-16vs FUTAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs AuroraDust2led 4 · lost 4-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MIBRMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BC.GameOverpassled 9 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersNuke16-13vs MIBRAncient20-22vs BC.GameOverpass13-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs G2Inferno16-14
magic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/95 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 35 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 9 downvs EACAncientfrom 8 downvs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 8 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 7 downvs Nuclear TigeRESMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/55 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 16 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BetBoomMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs The MongolZMirageled 7 · lost 23-25vs BIGOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13vs ECSTATICOverpassled 5 · lost 8-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BetBoomMirageled 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs Fingers CrossedDust220-22vs BetBoomMirage12-16vs WHITEBIRDAncient16-14vs ECSTATICMirage16-13vs ECSTATICAncient14-16